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Looking To Get Back in the Stock Market?

Looking To Get Back in The Stock Market?   Be careful, and make a plan. 

 

Tough choice,  (November 26th 2008)   Market trends seem to be ever changing.  I have put a buy list together.  This is a good starting point.  Fundamentals change quickly.  My Buy list targets include MDR, MTW, CME, CHAIN, YGE, Yingle Solar has been beaten up with declining margins; but, supported by locked in government contracts.  CME has took a recent dive as the market has perged so many hedge fund investors that have left the market for one reason or another.  Chicago Mercantile Exchange has strong earnings, and has a great business hosting futures trading.   New government legislation bringing in new traders with a is essentially the market maker.  I am sure CME can make profitable margins, and should continue to focus on consolidating markets while creating a participant conscious market.  I took GOOG off my buy list because of declining margins and fear of declining numbers across industry players.  Last month Google was a favorite. Best hope some new model that better reconizes Google value to the world. Citi Bank looks to have a big upside potential and only $7 left until zero. I hope have a really good chance of making money over the long run.

You can make a fortune buying and selling at the extremes of this market  is a comment from the Kirk Report.   

(Ocotober 31, 2008) I am staying out of investing at least until the new year. Very excited about locking in my first year of tradig profits.  In addition to a recent removal of an adrenal gland in the wrong place makes me understand stock trading is not for myself.  I still like to watch, and reflect on the market developments.   The biggest thing I learned is to lower my expectation and limit how much I watch the market.  Be patient, and wait for stocks to move into your target buy or sell range.  Keep hard work, experience, and sense of humor on your side.  The market still has life to it. 
  Traders  moving the market when it goes higher, and over exuberance relentlessly leaves profit on the short side.  Investors are buying long term here and some are selling.  Green Span comments early in 2008 on U.S economy did put our economy exposed to high oil prices.  

(November 26th 2008)

(October 31st 2008 list)

GOOG – is gaining market share today, and offering value.  GOOG price multiple for years after 2010 are too low.  Goog seems to ad value and create opportunity.  Risks remain in slowing trends in advertising budgets.

CROX – look likes  dicey here;  over sold and has a large short position.  I don’t see Crox as a fad and earning are strong.  Crox is trading at a price you could make 10X your money in a few years if things go Crox’s way.  The quality absorbing plastic shoes are nice; the hard plastic shoes should be faded out.  Sure inventories may be high; but, that seems to be a strategy from beginning of the trend.  Sending piles of Crox slippers to retailers to boost consumer confidence in the style of Crox

MDR – looks like a takeover candidate, value play, strong infrastructure company with buyers

YGE –  Solar pricing should be strong with government assistance; but, depressive oil prices could be diffucult.   Reasonable priced growth stock.

COF – The recent injections of cash should boost earnings in 2009.  Further weakness in consumer credit debt is expected with the relief valve of the government cash COF may be a worthy investment.

entertainment purposes and education.

November 26, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

To buy or sell YGE, on the sell off in the solar stock.

YGE ( Update + republish) Wednesday October 8th 2008 )solar is a strong corporation with big prospects for making an impact in the search for sustainable energy in the future.  Yigle has signed many deals that will bring a great value to world regardless of profit margins.  YGE brings out more important challenges of the future in recognizing value to the world without concern for profit margins.   As oil has plummetted in recent weeks with the market.   A great value play is offered in corporations that can deliver enormous benefits to an equally sucessful, and sustainable future.

YGE solar stock is a great value at this price and way over sold.                      Tuesday    1/15/2007    12:30pm

  The company is a top tier provider in Europe that is distinguishing itself by working to become the lowest cost producer.  Conferences are scheduled 16-18th Jan 2008 Photon Tech in Shenzhen China.  Then at the World Energy Summit 21-23 Jan in Dubai.   The company should anounce results sometime in early February.   The company has been mentioned in many blogs as growth stock to be bought on weakness.   I think the market may be bottoming here.   A week latter and lower on 1/21/08  Stocks looked good at $29 and better at $25

October 8, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Stock Market review reflecting on past trading ideas, and set ups.

Republish + Update 6/16/2008.   Good stock post covering many stocks with good notes to reflect on for stock traders who focus on BA, GD, INTC, CRM, QQQQ, XL,  YGE, UA,

UA shorting idea worked well.  UA took a big dive this week as its growth expectations                   (Saturday January 19th,  2008)

  ran into a recession.   Trade was a Cramer idea from a few weeks ago, moved with the market trend, preannounced a tough first half next year.

INTC long trade ahead of earnings was a big mistake, entered $23.15 currently at $19 exited near open at $20.   An options straddle trade both long and short the immediate earnings options would have worked.  The stock rallied on IBM’s positive pre-earnings Monday.  I rationalized with INTC having 90% of it’s earnings over-sea’s the stocks current and future earnings would have exceeded expectations.  In hinde site I gather the wide and competive coverage on the INTC the positive effect of the weak dollar had already been priced in by analysts’.   Increased doubts going forward  due to possible economic slowing around the globe caused selling leading to a lower share price .

I shorted CRM last week, and again this week.   I shorted on a mention by Cramer about the stock possible being overpriced.  Cramer from Mad Money mentioned how he thought if the stock showed any signs of slowing at earnings the stock would get taken down big. The trade off his coments did not work the first time without perfect execution.  The market did offer a tiny window to execute the trade profitable.   I  then re-entered the trade Friday as the stock was selling off when the market opened higher.  I am hoping the street is ready to take this one down. Earning should be out sometime mid February.  (exited trade near even, Company sells hope and some people like the stock here  1/23/08)

I entered into a short trade on XL late Friday.  I am around even on the trade so far.  I saw a lot of selling going on in the stock and for good reasons.  Two directors stepped down last month, and  moodies placed some of its CPDO’s fund in junk status.  The fund is a complicated derivatives trade that allowed XL to offer insurance coverage on corporate debt staying top investment grade.  Junk status indicates to me that people are likely to not get paid.  I assume these people will be paid before common shareholders. A lot of selling has gone on these past two trading days. I hope I am not too late to the party.  (rate cut will help the company find balance 1/23/08 update)

YGE long trade I backed out of quickly because the stock just became weaker.  I did exit on a bounce that softened the blow.   I’m not sure if first quarter earnings are going to be up to par; but, sure long term the company is a big winner with top technology. I think the stock currnetly priced around $25 is a good for a long trade.  Timing of the entry is what I am trying to do well provided $24 and change on Friday may have been the best spot to get in. Only time will tell .     (long trade on at $23 hoping for a big rally updated 1/23/08 3pm)

 QQQQ appears to be stabilizing as the semiconductors are acting strong.  A long trade may be called for before another shorting opportunity arises here.    (wish I had more money I would buy some 1/23/08 3pm update)

Shorting war related stocks (LMT BA, NOC, GD, COL, ATK,) posted 12pm  Thursday 1/17 /08  ***The trade is up about 1-2%. Anyone in the previous week was up 5%-10%.  All but one of the stocks is below the 20,50, and 200 day moving averages.   I was hoping ATK was a good opportunity to short.  I found a few reasons on both sides; but staying bearish on the side line because the war stocks are below the 50 and 200 day moving average.  Stocks can trend for a while.  Istill think the United states is in a bearish cycle.  The decline of activity in Iraq could slow propects for future war equipment sales.   ATK was put on credit watch negative by Fitch recently.  A stock offering posible in the works stated http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080109/alliant_techsystems_ratings.html?.v=1.   debt levels are high to meet needs to buy an information systems and aerospace business unit for 1.31 billion dollars.  http://www.reuters.com/article/tnBasicIndustries-SP/idUSN0825031520080109    The stock is oversold short term.  The deal is flat on already strong earnings for 2008, and accretive in 2009 provided no unforseen cutbacks by the government. The company has state of the art technology.  Possible short term catylsts could be a market moves, breaking out of war, government cut backs, and or election promises.

I will update.

Entertainment Purposes only,

June 16, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bearish BAC, CRM, TGT, RIMM, NYX,

I am bearish on the out look of the market and being so makes me look for good canidates to short. These are the one I think will go lower.  Again the rally faded today, just icing on a bad cake.

CRM – customer management software — too low of barriers of entry for profits to grow and maintain short and long term

BAC- heavily leveraged to consumer debt,  not being able to find new customers qualified for loans and loan defaults could really crush the banking business

TGT-  highly leveraged to consumer spending and credit, has issued credit to customers to grow sales – reality of lending to people who can’t afford to shop in your store may set in soon.

RIMM-  has patent problems with motorola, three networks shut downs in the last year, lots of competition in the market should hurt margins

NYX – market trading should slow as markets slows with confidence and investors losing money in a stagnant economy.

Entertainment purposes only; help other ask questions later

February 19, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Morals of markets would not matter, if they were not important to liquidity of markets

Markets are best served in a stable honest environment.  People are very willing to trade if they feel the market can be trusted.  With limited trust market trading volumes will decline.  Morals are the set of values that we try to use to guide our lives.    A further look allows us to see it also governs the lives’ of all people.  With bond markets drying up and the less fortunate being caught at a loss.   Moral hazards in the financial sector may cause this specific group to lose value going forward.     Derivatives of mortgages held by some investors called CDO’s (Derivatives  instruments for leverage and risk management purposes) and other securities  have not been kind to it’s holders.  Unless wall-street looks far enough into the future and can bring more honesty into their practices they will drink their own poisonous cool aide.  Warren Buffet commented it was nice to see those who have created poisonous cool-aide for others to drink have to drink some.  Insurance carries who have prospered from the derivative plays will likely suffer from a deterioration in trust slowing size, and number of transactions going forward.  BAC, MER, GS, BSC, and XL all have exposure to financial markets.

  On a positive note world leaders have gotten together to make a commitment to supporting market prices even if that means rigging them…lol  Leaders have made a commitment to move markets in an orderly fashion.   Economic stimulus packages have been passed, and rates of lending are being cut.    Solar corporations look they are expanding and finding needed capital to expand their contributions to the world. FSLR and YGE top solar stocks.

Entertainment purposes only;  help others ask questions later                          

February 15, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Short sold UNH, New York state investigating healthcare insurance fraud

UNH should be punished for committing fraud against it’s customers.  I hope you agree with me in condemning fraudulent behavior that ultimately denies society benefits and wastes.  New York state has launched a probe into illegal practices of Health Insurers.  I think UNH is a good short because of the dishonest behavior that I hope destroys the future of UNH. (update 2/13/08 lost alot of money on the trade – seperating morals from trading short term might be a lesson learned) Fraud has resulted in an inaccurate recording of profits in the past, and should not be allowed in the future.  One example of the alleged fraud New York is investigating UNH reportedly paid $62 on claims they believed should be paid $160 according to a Market Watch Report.  http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/new-york-charges-healthcare-billing/story.aspx?guid=%7BA6E79417%2D6D6C%2D48EE%2D9DC0%2DBB52F816DB09%7D&siteid=yhoof AET, CI, WLP, WCG or HUM also look tempting to short in my opinion. They are being sold off on fear of earnings going forward in a climate with much risk for the industry as the government looks to cuts costs and eliminate waste.   http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN1334410320080213?rpc=44   UNH said to be at the heart of the probe  http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b889EB25E-F08F-49AC-AA67-1465E44B9300%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo   Doing more research I found Nevada probably the most pro business environment in the world slams UNH saying they committed 130,000 violations from not paying doctors and collecting fraudulent money from customers.  It could face 10,000 per violation equaling 1.3 billion dollars in Nevada alone.  I have heard of stiffing patients; but, doctors?  That is a business model for disaster. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080208/nv_unitedhealth_sierra.html?.v=1  Punishing this corporation and crushing UNH stock is best for society.  No more compromises.  As a society we need to condemn those who have chossen to deny us health benefits.  The future is about good decisions; not profits.  An argument against the trade is UNH is a large health care provider with a history of profits, predicted growth, and should  benefit from economies of scale because of the size it’s network of customers. Some may seen UNH being oversold and as a good value.

Entertainment purposes only,

February 13, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bought YGE as it rallies higher

YGE a top quality solar play looks like it might be catching fire again.   The stock is up over 10% this morning. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080204/yingli_green_energy_wafers.html?.v=1  

The stock has been stagnate for a while and this sharp move higher may just be what investors have been waiting for to pour into YGE.  I wish I bought it under 20 but; I missed it.   I will be happy to catch part of the ride higher.   The Solar stocks have a lot of investors looking to profit from the environmentally friendly producers that should play a big role in the future. 

entertainment purposes only

February 4, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Tricky market, shorted RTH on the pop higher

(Exited  trade because the rate cut will has a positive effect on earnings with the Refy business coming back.  HD and LOW look best in the group. Updated 1/23/08 3 pm )   Retailers trading up today.  Not sure why in this bear market; so I took the oppotunity to short the RTH index.  Not sure about the market direction from here.  I would guess we continue lower.  I am still in my short on CRM.  I exited the XL trade because the stock was already sold off, and buyers started to come in as they did with MBI scaring me out.  XL hit a low around 36 this morning.  May well have been a bottom as the Fed cutting rates should allow business’s and homeowners to find some ways to save money refinancing.  I wish I would have tooken the plunge long into YGE on the open around 21-22

entertainment purposes only

January 22, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Whats on sale in the stock market?

(Update July 11th 2008)  The market appears to be oversold.    Topstock blog recomended shoring XL and others stocks six months ago.  The corporations that can survive this down turn may become buying canidates.  I am liking XL an insurance stock with alot of assets and cash.  XL will pay out a dividend of over 7% with XL plummetting in value over the last year.  

I believe the market is trying to get where ever it needs to quickly, and the Fed’s leader Bernanke is very aware of what is going on.  Some assets were overpriced forward looking.  Sustainability and surrounding morality issues are in my mind.   A few stocks are tempting at current prices. I might buy CALM because it is oversold, starting to act well, and my favorite sustainable growth story.  CMED and YGE look tempting to buy particularly with China’s sell off Monday.   All stocks may open lower making for a good entry point. Things in the world are getting more tricky with the sell off over seas.  Trying to be careful.   I wish I could of got into GS at $187 this past summer.  $187 for GS now looks not as tempting.   Too many people still want to buy into this market from my bear market point of view for stocks to stop declining. 

On the other hand  corporate America is healthy and stocks could rally when the Fed cuts rates.  I just read an article from Ben Stein about the market not being a bad time to invest.  http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/62337;_ylt=ApROSGTguIHTte4UKci.aqa7YWsA  Overseas markets are getting hit hard Monday on fears about the recession in the United States. U.S. markets are closed in honor of Martin Luther King.   

Mcdermitt  (MDR) a top infrastructure builder around the world looks to be a good value around current prices.  Apple (AAPL) showed off a new micro laptop at Macworld.  I thought it could becom the next big hit in a few years if they could get the price affordable for average consumers.

January 21, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

IBM strong, stock market out look evolving.

I figured the market would either start high and close low today.   Or start low and end lower.  well maybe,     Monday Jan 14th,  2008

Well that didn’t work out.  It appears as long as wall-street takes write off and has over sea’s exposure they may do very well.   Provided we can make friends in the world.   I say we work to improve the worlds poorest by giving them all chickens, lambs, and plant-able crops.  Might be better than using guns and bombs.   Went long INTC ahead of earnings with 90% of their revenue occurring over seas.

  I do see a few cases for the long side argument one being the market has corrected.   A second reason being emerging markets continue to grow strong.  U.S business’s are benefiting and will continue to benefit from a weak dollar to boost earnings results.  IBM beat the street estimate by 20 cents   $2.80 v.s $2.6 a  share this morning .  I heard an argument on CNBC a few weeks ago that humans will continue to race ahead until all the resources are gone.  Given the weakness in the dollar, and a new president it could be a good year for the stock market.  Value entries are being talked about on CNBC this morning.  A few blogs have also made value entry comments.  I feel more neutral on the markets direction from here. .  I like AAPL, CALM, DRYS, YGE, AUY, and CMED today on the long side.  

I am still short and feeling some pain watching the ticker this morning.  Just happy I have some profits to lose.     I am going to stay short this morning and most of the week if the top is on the open this morning.  If I see the market opens up 100 and goes higher then I will start to worry more….lol     I still can’t find any reasons why the RTH doesn’t go lower.  What could possible save the retailers.   Weakness could be ahead in the markets.   The bank of England has not being able to raise cash to save Black Rock bank, and Goldman Sachs is recommending the move to nationalization of the bank.  I heard talk on CNBC of Citi bank not being able to get the money it needs from China and may to have to lay off another 20,000 jobs.  The economic theory there goes why would you save your competition.  That was the argument used by an analyst in reponse to Warren Buffet’s Berkshire investing in MBI and or other mortgage insurers in trouble.  More profitable to let your competition get weaker.     We did turn off our economy six months in front of China’s Olympics, Bejing 2008! (or at least I thought we did)  England is running an estimated 3% deficit, and talked of being in Afghanistan for decades yesterday.  I sure bet the U.S is sorry for not supporting a Soviet take over in the 1980’s of Afghanistan.    I think the pop on the open is good to help the markets re-balance.  

                                Good luck!

article for entertainment purposes only.

January 14, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The stock market should be volatile monday

  1/12/08 Saturday

  Tough week for the bulls.  Most everyone lost a lot of money except the bears.  I am one of the bears; but, wish I cashed out before the close.  Verizon called me trying to get me to resign for another two years as the market closed.  I was a bit too greedy and didn’t pull the trigger earlier in the day and it may cost me.  

You are always guaranteed to lose some premium on an options contract at the open on Monday of an expiration week.  I wish I never answered that call by Verizon.  But, I guess I’ll have to wait till Monday to see what happens.   Verizon must of bought some customer management software like  CRM I am short.   Looks like the product might need some work.   

     I am sure there will be plenty of sellers going into monday with fear riding high for retirees, and the market will be none to accommodating to let them out on a large gap lower.    Could be hundred points  down or up on the open with all the volatility and associated heads games. 

Everyone seems to be looking for more cash and the market is trying to do the shakedown the best it knows how with a crash.  Must be that trade deficit catching up to us.  Disappointing the market is supporting drug, health care, and hmo’s.  I would think that the all seeing market could figure out socialized medicine is coming and in the entire nations best interest.

  Look to get in or out at your price on  Monday.  I am sure the market will go both directions.   The one thing I fear more than the banks explaining why they lost so much money.  Is the terrorist making an attack when they see weakness or us being dumb enough to attack Iran.  The world needs to work together.   I sure hope we get a president who invests heavily in solar and brings about a system of socialized medicine.   Its the only reasonable way forward. 

     Pure capitalism was created hundreds of years ago when people thought humans were heathens.   We had no idea how much one human could do or how great a country we could build.  Google is working on robots that can calculate every angle, and think more intelligently than humans while we surf the internet. I sure hope the heathens don’t blow it selling us out to the greedy.  Its no longer the rich we have to fear.  Its the greedy.  The world has enough resources so every hard working American can have a home, two kids, a picket fence, Mercedies, and a college education. 

   The Dow could crash a few thousand points according to one bear investor on t.v.  Maybe or maybe we trade higher this year.  Stranger things have happened.  I hope populist female president wins and sets the world straight.   Life’s to short and precious to be wasted on wars.    The world gets more crowded every day and respect has always been a sure way to stay out of trouble. 

 A lot of funds have set rules that have been triggered by all the weakness in share prices.  So that could provide grounds for going lower; but, the market likes to keep the investors guessing.  Jim Kramer from mad money was constructive about AAPL, AUY (Kramer’s best gold stock).  I like CMED SEED MOS and YGE for bullish trades or investments next week.  I like a short in any retailer.   I may short TIF,  BLK , or QQQQ for a trade.  I don’t see any light for TIF with the high end women already sporting all the diamonds they should rationally desire and the heathens still don’t have any money or lost it this past week.   Market makers are sure to be currently swimming in sells with all the selling these past few weeks; but,  I think they have been waiting for this and should have no problme taking the market where it needs to go wheather thats higher or lower.  

     No important indicators until Tuesday’s retail sales, retail sales ex auto’s, and PPI.  The inflation numbers are going to start moving higher or the balance sheet losses are going to pile up for retailers.  Kramer was making fun of sports retailer that said BGFV could no longer say the were the third largest sports retailer.  The environment does not seem friendly for passing along costs to the shoppers who are managing to make less transactions, and spending less each time.  Good job!  I imagine the balance sheet losses are going to pile up and inflation will stay tame. Lets hope not and the nation realizes they have a diverse region with the population equally distributed 2/3 of the 70 million that is under the age of 30.     Apple a big conference to showcase products on Monday in Europe that has always made the stock move higher in the past.  I think Apple should open much higher given the pull back and the growing number of world wide consumers that would like the new gadgets Apple creates.  Select software companies also appear to have some support  I notice that  some stock seem to be establishing a small base and others look to be heading out of business.  First I want to say it is a miracle that the banks could straighten their balance sheets out.  Society should demand they are as leanant with American tax payers.  Not the current administration, and not unless it is demanded.   Good luck getting the oblivious to notice anything going on concerning their children’s future.   I think the plan going forward is to support anything that America has patents behind and sell everything you can’t patent. Drugs stocks are definitely benefiting.  You would think no one told the investors most major drug companies have pipelines that are at best comparable to the drugs we already have on the market.  How many cholesterol, heart, depression, anxiety, or pain medication can society need.  How many CEO’s can we send to the moon if they would like.  Wake up wall-street!  Wake up America!  Over paying CEO’s is not capitalism its feudalism.  No body wants to live in a world where they don’t know if the money in the bank will be worth anything.   No wants a fixed rate triple AAA top rated fund that only returns half its investment.  

 Mrs. Clinton appears to be turning more populust to get the votes or maybe she is following her heart.   She proposed a 70 billion dollar stimulus package.  25 billion dollar tax rebate.  5 billion towards renewable energy.  That will put a dent in the 500 billion needed to put 90% of the world on solar energy in the next hundred years.  Now if she just gives back the $800,000 Michael Moore states she has received from the drug companies and health insurance companies in his movie Sicko ( A must see for all).  Maybe everyone can health care this century and doctors can still get a few hundred thousand a year in real currency.  Any way sure hope Hillary puts  a few accountants and economists back to work.   We need to reconcile our balance sheets of wealth in the country, eliminate the massive trade imbalance over time, and make some real friends.  Wake up America!!  

January 11, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment