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Stock Market review reflecting on past trading ideas, and set ups.

Republish + Update 6/16/2008.   Good stock post covering many stocks with good notes to reflect on for stock traders who focus on BA, GD, INTC, CRM, QQQQ, XL,  YGE, UA,

UA shorting idea worked well.  UA took a big dive this week as its growth expectations                   (Saturday January 19th,  2008)

  ran into a recession.   Trade was a Cramer idea from a few weeks ago, moved with the market trend, preannounced a tough first half next year.

INTC long trade ahead of earnings was a big mistake, entered $23.15 currently at $19 exited near open at $20.   An options straddle trade both long and short the immediate earnings options would have worked.  The stock rallied on IBM’s positive pre-earnings Monday.  I rationalized with INTC having 90% of it’s earnings over-sea’s the stocks current and future earnings would have exceeded expectations.  In hinde site I gather the wide and competive coverage on the INTC the positive effect of the weak dollar had already been priced in by analysts’.   Increased doubts going forward  due to possible economic slowing around the globe caused selling leading to a lower share price .

I shorted CRM last week, and again this week.   I shorted on a mention by Cramer about the stock possible being overpriced.  Cramer from Mad Money mentioned how he thought if the stock showed any signs of slowing at earnings the stock would get taken down big. The trade off his coments did not work the first time without perfect execution.  The market did offer a tiny window to execute the trade profitable.   I  then re-entered the trade Friday as the stock was selling off when the market opened higher.  I am hoping the street is ready to take this one down. Earning should be out sometime mid February.  (exited trade near even, Company sells hope and some people like the stock here  1/23/08)

I entered into a short trade on XL late Friday.  I am around even on the trade so far.  I saw a lot of selling going on in the stock and for good reasons.  Two directors stepped down last month, and  moodies placed some of its CPDO’s fund in junk status.  The fund is a complicated derivatives trade that allowed XL to offer insurance coverage on corporate debt staying top investment grade.  Junk status indicates to me that people are likely to not get paid.  I assume these people will be paid before common shareholders. A lot of selling has gone on these past two trading days. I hope I am not too late to the party.  (rate cut will help the company find balance 1/23/08 update)

YGE long trade I backed out of quickly because the stock just became weaker.  I did exit on a bounce that softened the blow.   I’m not sure if first quarter earnings are going to be up to par; but, sure long term the company is a big winner with top technology. I think the stock currnetly priced around $25 is a good for a long trade.  Timing of the entry is what I am trying to do well provided $24 and change on Friday may have been the best spot to get in. Only time will tell .     (long trade on at $23 hoping for a big rally updated 1/23/08 3pm)

 QQQQ appears to be stabilizing as the semiconductors are acting strong.  A long trade may be called for before another shorting opportunity arises here.    (wish I had more money I would buy some 1/23/08 3pm update)

Shorting war related stocks (LMT BA, NOC, GD, COL, ATK,) posted 12pm  Thursday 1/17 /08  ***The trade is up about 1-2%. Anyone in the previous week was up 5%-10%.  All but one of the stocks is below the 20,50, and 200 day moving averages.   I was hoping ATK was a good opportunity to short.  I found a few reasons on both sides; but staying bearish on the side line because the war stocks are below the 50 and 200 day moving average.  Stocks can trend for a while.  Istill think the United states is in a bearish cycle.  The decline of activity in Iraq could slow propects for future war equipment sales.   ATK was put on credit watch negative by Fitch recently.  A stock offering posible in the works stated http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080109/alliant_techsystems_ratings.html?.v=1.   debt levels are high to meet needs to buy an information systems and aerospace business unit for 1.31 billion dollars.  http://www.reuters.com/article/tnBasicIndustries-SP/idUSN0825031520080109    The stock is oversold short term.  The deal is flat on already strong earnings for 2008, and accretive in 2009 provided no unforseen cutbacks by the government. The company has state of the art technology.  Possible short term catylsts could be a market moves, breaking out of war, government cut backs, and or election promises.

I will update.

Entertainment Purposes only,

June 16, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bearish BAC, CRM, TGT, RIMM, NYX,

I am bearish on the out look of the market and being so makes me look for good canidates to short. These are the one I think will go lower.  Again the rally faded today, just icing on a bad cake.

CRM – customer management software — too low of barriers of entry for profits to grow and maintain short and long term

BAC- heavily leveraged to consumer debt,  not being able to find new customers qualified for loans and loan defaults could really crush the banking business

TGT-  highly leveraged to consumer spending and credit, has issued credit to customers to grow sales – reality of lending to people who can’t afford to shop in your store may set in soon.

RIMM-  has patent problems with motorola, three networks shut downs in the last year, lots of competition in the market should hurt margins

NYX – market trading should slow as markets slows with confidence and investors losing money in a stagnant economy.

Entertainment purposes only; help other ask questions later

February 19, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Short sold UNH, New York state investigating healthcare insurance fraud

UNH should be punished for committing fraud against it’s customers.  I hope you agree with me in condemning fraudulent behavior that ultimately denies society benefits and wastes.  New York state has launched a probe into illegal practices of Health Insurers.  I think UNH is a good short because of the dishonest behavior that I hope destroys the future of UNH. (update 2/13/08 lost alot of money on the trade – seperating morals from trading short term might be a lesson learned) Fraud has resulted in an inaccurate recording of profits in the past, and should not be allowed in the future.  One example of the alleged fraud New York is investigating UNH reportedly paid $62 on claims they believed should be paid $160 according to a Market Watch Report.  http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/new-york-charges-healthcare-billing/story.aspx?guid=%7BA6E79417%2D6D6C%2D48EE%2D9DC0%2DBB52F816DB09%7D&siteid=yhoof AET, CI, WLP, WCG or HUM also look tempting to short in my opinion. They are being sold off on fear of earnings going forward in a climate with much risk for the industry as the government looks to cuts costs and eliminate waste.   http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN1334410320080213?rpc=44   UNH said to be at the heart of the probe  http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b889EB25E-F08F-49AC-AA67-1465E44B9300%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo   Doing more research I found Nevada probably the most pro business environment in the world slams UNH saying they committed 130,000 violations from not paying doctors and collecting fraudulent money from customers.  It could face 10,000 per violation equaling 1.3 billion dollars in Nevada alone.  I have heard of stiffing patients; but, doctors?  That is a business model for disaster. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080208/nv_unitedhealth_sierra.html?.v=1  Punishing this corporation and crushing UNH stock is best for society.  No more compromises.  As a society we need to condemn those who have chossen to deny us health benefits.  The future is about good decisions; not profits.  An argument against the trade is UNH is a large health care provider with a history of profits, predicted growth, and should  benefit from economies of scale because of the size it’s network of customers. Some may seen UNH being oversold and as a good value.

Entertainment purposes only,

February 13, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment