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Stock market crashes, and links. Will the market rebound?

Stock market looks poised to crash again December 12th as a $50 billion dollar ponzi scheme is exposed.  Jim Cramer has called out the Securities and Exchange Commision for failing to enforce the law, failing to stop market manipulation and conspiracy by hedge funds out of control.   The markets unfriendly nature is driving money out of the market and keeping participation low.   The job picture is also getting worse with jobless claims hitting a 17 year high for unemployment benefits filed in a single week at 577,000 new applications.   

Stock market crashed 444 points November 20th 2008 to Dow 7500 today, and looks poised to go lower as the market rarely bottoms on a Thursday.   Markets typically bottom on Monday morning.   Dow 6800 stands out in my mind as a low from the early 1990’s.  I believe that more accurately compares to the economic uncertainty facing the world going forward.  Jobless claims hit a 16 year high.  Possible even lower if any major unexpected   To be honest with the continued destruction of jobs around the world; complete disregard for balancing the budget or impossible task, and environmental concerns of the world it is hard to believe that change will not occur.  Karl Marx the socialist recognized as one the great minds of Economic study predicted capitalism would come to an end as the capitalist systems fails to be able to meet the worlds needs. 

   This types of thinking typically occurs along side of great fear in people at the bottom of capitalist markets; but, this time may be different.  Technology advancements have allowed us to do so much more with so much less.  The work of one hundred men can be done by one man in many areas of business.  So clearly a more responsible society would disregard or accommodate business’s that continue to allow us to raise standards of life while achieving sustainability with the environment.  In order  not destroy the planet for future generations.  Many corporations across a wide spectrum of industries are closing up shop or will in the next twelve month’s due to negative margins and a negative market out look.  

 October 10th 2008 comments – Why does the market crash every day? The market can go to zero.  If people  want the money, and the system becomes insolvent.  Stocks can go much lower.  Cities ask when will the credit markets reopen for city bonds.  That is laughable in a way.  Why would someone buy debt in a system that is capital isolated, and losing money increasingly as far as the eye can see?  Stocks that make profits should hold Steady here.  IBM looks way undervalued.  I like Buy IBM at any price, even though,  all stocks go down in a bear market.  With a few exceptions.  Government can step in and manage stock assets in ways that business has failed to do or better align interests in ways that make more sense.  The American government has proposed taking a 79% ownership in the new AIG corporation.   Other than the $440,000 part executives threw to celebrate the recent loans.  Topstockblog see the moves as halfway sensible  with the government ownership.   Why do we have to pay for houses forever?  We don’t.  Why doesn’t George send checks to all Americans.  He has authorization to sign the checks.  A most diversified society is the best one.  That is the American dream.  What are constitutional signers agreed to value above, and beyond greed.

 

(Original June 6th 2008 post) The  U.S. stock market crashed nearly 400 points today http://www.yahoo.com/s/895280  (Friday June 6th. 2008).   The largest increase in jobless claims increase in 22 years, and oil per barrel rising $10 in a single day.  Given the large amount of the increase in oil today, and over the last year oil is probably going much higher.

The stock market was up 200 points yesterday.  Some people had become more bullish on the market going forward with Carl Ichann a major investor reiterating his wish to sell yahoo at a premium of $32.  Interestingly Carl seemed to think $32 was a fair price in part because of the effects of inflation in the future making the premium of $32 a fair price.  Some investors jumped at his latest comments that sent the market up 200 points were now caught long.  The market always is challenging.  Historically the market is very volatile with inflation in the water.

 The Kirk report http://www.thekirkreport.com/    talks about the likely hood of further weakness.  The bottom that many hoped was set in March is probably not the bottom.   With so much trouble in the world and major support being broken putting big doubts in the theory.     I expect more investors piling into oil and out of stocks Monday.  I think the low could be set Monday if the sell off is big enough or some time in the next couple of weeks.

Entertainment purposes,

December 12, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Jim Cramer’s latest thoughts and bullish stocks. Mad Money recap

 Jim Cramer’s latest thoughts and bullish stocks. Mad Money recap

Jim Cramer (November 27th 2008) is very excited about small successes in the market, and has come out with several stock picks C, MDR, CAT, AAPL, NUE among several other stocks he is cautously bullish on.  Cramer targets corporations with dividend’s and stable share holders.  Cramer recommends not trying to time a bottom, diversification, and doing your homework.

(June 15th 2008) Jim Cramer recently published am artcle about sticking with new tech. Corporations that will meet the worlds most pressing issues over the next 50 years like Energy, poverty, environment, clean water, and population. Here is the list of new cap published at the Street.com a cool website for stock market information. Recap: Stay with New Tech05/20/08 – 07:43 PM EDT
CMI EMR ENER (Breakout Stocks PICK) ETN FSLR GLW HLF NAVZ NYX PH
TheStreet.com Staff

Review Jim Cramers latest edition of Mad Moneywhen searching for stocks, to gain both insight, and understanding of the latest developments in the stock market. Through this link to this website that gives a link to the latest show. Including a link to Jim’s portfolio plus recent trades. A link to Warren Buffet’s portfolio, and alot of great information.
http://www.madmoneyrecap.com/

Entertainment purposes only,

November 26, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Stock trading system using 50 day moving average supports, strong stocks, and market trends

Trend following trading system   Overview 

Make money buying, and selling stocks using a trading system that relies on pre-planned trading rules.  The rules are designed to take advantage of fundamental analysis, money management, technical analysis, and the regular development of trends in the world.  

I created this trading system which was inspired by The Original Turtle’s commodity trading system. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=928713    I have tried to creat a system that is adjustable to meet many individual needs, and minimal time commitments.

 Buys and sells are based largely on stocks chosen to watch crossing the simple 50 day moving average (DMVA), and the simple 20 day moving average.  These entries are to be made into a set list of stocks following the rules to avoid making emotional trading decisions.

  Portfolio selection rules

The system is to focus on the best growth stocks in the market.  Additionally stocks to short sell can be focused on singling out the worst stocks that can be short sold.   Focussing on stocks with the worst forward looking future to be part of the bearish group to be short sold.

After identifying bull and bear stocks watch you must decide how many stock you want to attempt to manage.  You should look too the time you want to devote group size should be based on experience, time to dedicate, capital available, and personal judgment.  Groups can be selected by one’s self or using a reliable source to cater to one’s experience or lack thereof, and personal choice.   Stocks should normally have a two to one ratio of bullish stocks to bearish stocks to reflect the overall concept that stocks move higher over time.  I suggest starting the system with 4-12 stocks in the bullish group, and 2-6 stocks in the bearish group.

The two groups should be reexamined, and updated every week end, or ever month or year depending on ones choice.  Stocks should be added or removed because of developing trends in industries, changes in technology, changes in leadership,  population demographic changes, politics, natural resource developments, natural disasters, wars, politics, and forward looking changes in revenues and or earnings can lead to trends. A stock can be removed from the list at this time if quantifiable factual evidence exists that may cause a trend to end, or in an attempt to find better opportunities. 

A stock should only be removed if no open position in the stock exists.

Groups’ sizes should be reduced if the current group is proving too hard to manage.  Or the group size should be increased if one has been successful with the current group size, and feels it would be beneficial to add more stocks. 

Rules

  1. Use a set list of stocks. 
  2. Determine all simple 50 and 20 day moving averages for all of the chosen stocks on a daily, weekly, or  monthly basis.   These averages will be used set up trades to be executed.  Also determine all value entry prices.
  3. Buy a unit of a bullish stock at or above the 50DMVA, plus at or below the 20DMVA.  A position should be initiated at the open on the first business day a stock has been added to the bullish group and meets these parameters. 
  4. Buy a unit of a bullish stock previously added to the bullish group when it crosses the 50DMVA on an intra-day move from below the 50DMVA.
  5. Buy a unit of a bullish stock previously included in the bullish group when it is above the 50DMVA + above the 20DMVA then retraces to hit the 20DMVA on an intra-day move. 
  6. For all trades initiated, a second unit should be added at the open two business days later as long as the security has not triggered a sell. If a sell is triggered the trade is done.
  7. If a stock gaps higher or lower breaking through an entry price, still go forward with the trade at the open as long as the gap does not void the trade by reaching the exit point before entry.
  8. Sell all units of a stock when a daily close below the 50DMVA occurs for bullish units. All units should be sold at the open the following business day.
  9. Short sell a bearish group stock at or below the 50DMVA plus no more than 10% below the 50DMVA.  A position should be initiated at the open on the first business day a security has been added to the bearish group and meets the above parameters.
  10. Short sell a unit of a stock previously added to the bearish stock group when it crosses from above to below the 50DMVA on an intraday price move.
  11. Short sell a unit of a stock when previously added bearish group stock had been below the 50DMVA and below the 20DMVA and retraces to hit the 20DMVA on an intra-day move.
  12. Close out all short sold units of a bearish stock at the first daily close above the 50 DMVA at the open the following business day. 
  13. Value entry – buy a unit of a bullish stock when it reaches a value 20% below its 50DMVA.
  14. Value entry – short sell a unit in a bearish stock when it reaches 10% above its 50DMVA.
  15. Exit all units of a value entry stock at the open following a day when a closing price reaches an average loss of 8% or higher on the trade.
  16.  Do not buy any stocks below the 200DMVA. (added rule after seeing recent bear trend, and listening to other successful trader that employs this rule with success.

   

Risk reducing strategies

 

 A portfolio should own no more than two stocks from a specific subsector (i.e. computer hardware) in one direction at any given time. No more than four stocks should be owned at any given time in the same direction that is highly correlated (i.e. oil corporations).

The system uses moving averages as a technical indicator to buy stocks when others are likely to also be buying, and sell quickly when the stock has lost this technical indicator advantage.   The system focuses on only the best opportunities in an attempt to maximize returns, and minimize the down side risk of any position.

   

Unit size

Everything can be scaled down to the point of functioning even if that means investing in one or two stocks.  Adjust the units to no more than 30% of portfolio if possible. Use a single unit strategy rather than buying two units reduce commission charges.  Also, reduce the number of stocks in the focus groups to those with best chances to trend well.  One could just invest in bullish group stocks to avoid paying margin interest that may be associated with shorting stocks, and take advantage of the principal that stocks tend to move higher over time. Stocks move higher over time because of retained earnings, stock repurchases, accumulated assets, increases in productivity and advances in technology.  One should consider only investing in stocks that have been recommended by a pre-determined reliable source if they have a lack of experience, time to dedicate, and or comfort with making stocks selections.

For a higher net worth portfolio

 

A suggestion would be to use under five percent of a portfolio in an individual trade.  Units are to be figured by taking the total dollar value of the portfolio multiplied by the percent determined for a unit.  The unit is to be recalculated every weekend.   The stock must be liquid enough to not have the trades materially affect long term results. Exits can be done in two unit sales on the day a sale is called for if the position size is hard to liquidate in one sale.

   Final Thoughts 

      Stocks make a good opportunity for this trend following system to be financially successful.  This trend following trading system is for your education and or entertainment purposes. This system can be tailored to meet your own ideas, time frames, trading tools, and any other special needs. Business conditions are always changing, creating an ideal situation for trends to develop routinely.  Many trades will have a whipsaw effect because sells will often be triggered shortly after you have purchased. This system is designed to preserve capital, minimize risk, and make the vast majority of profits in a small number of trades that trend much farther.   Most of the work for the system is to done on the weekend and outside stock operating hours.

Entertainment purposes only,
 
 
 

 

November 15, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Apple Corporation looks very attractive under $100 a share

Apple has long been a leader in innovative technology.  AAPL stock has traded much higher prices in the past, and probably will retest those highs around $200 at some point in the future.  Great investments are made at times of weakness into corporations that should be part of the solution.   Apple has great capacity to improve people’s lives around the world in a sustainable way.  I-phones are a revolutionary cell phone that is a great resource to owners.  Offering all the features of a phone, music player, and small personal assistant.  Including access to the Internet.  The idea that schools would cut payments to buy computers over payments to retired teachers , and law enforcement is pathetic in Topstockblog’s opinion.  Particularly to retirees’ with new jobs, and large savings.  Wake up America!  Make sure all children have access to technology.   Profit measures are inappropriate over relied on when valuing corporations like AAPL who have the ability to build a much better world.  

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?Feed=AP&Date=20081022&ID=9309300&Symbol=AAPL

 

Entertainment and education,

October 22, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Mortgage Solution for the United States

Mortgage Solution for the United States

 

Mortgage problems should be in part fixed with passive permanent grants.  Both local and federal grants should be made available to those that want help. Grants are not new, and have been tailored to meet challenges of our country in the past.   A grant program dedicated too homeowners that want help, and need help would have a positive multiplying effect on the entire nation, and world.  Changes in infrastructure needs, debt levels, population demographics, and sustainability all contribute to the need for more government grants.  

 Vermont a leader in progressive ideas has used a small scale passive permanent homeowner grant in selected environmentally considerate multiunit complexes to the benefit of all Vermonters.  Vermont requires those who want to apply to the program to take a financial education workshop, and also helps people straighten out past credit issues. Vermont is one of only two states in the nation to sustain housing prices in the last year.  The grant would stay in place forever as percentage of ownership in the property supporting the homeowner, home values, the entire community, all with a financial interest, and or moral interest.   

Struggling home owners could use this type of grant to regain their ability to contribute to the economy. Home owners could transfer partial ownership of their home to the grant program.  Homeowners, banks, realtors, appraisers, bondholders, renters, and the entire world would benefit.  Being progressive in dealing with struggling homeowners will help deal more effectively with fluctuations in the business cycle, and allow our government to show its commitment to being thoughtful of all.  

 So much of a home owner’s life goes towards paying the mortgage. This maybe impractical, and unsustainable in part because of increased efficiencies, limited natural resources, global competition, and an aging population.  Resolving this material weakness will be good for everyone, and increase flexibility of our economy to meet future challenges.

Currently small regional banks have been exempt from banking regulation of their mortgage originations.  Banks have relied on the under educated, and under informed customer to be their main profit source.   Enticing people with low introductory rates into products they could not realistically afford in the long term.  The lapse of regulation that has occurred continues to contribute to the housing problem, and now threatens to hurt the entire economy.  All Banks need to be regulated in all areas to ensure fair treatment, and pass along increased efficiencies to society.

Further regulation of mortgage brokers will only work if all banking is regulated.  Brokers’ help customers get into programs created by banks.  If banks can do anything then increased regulation of brokers will be ineffective. Rates of profit allowed should be tighter on brokers because of increased efficiencies in recent years.  Government needs to from time to time pass along efficiencies gained by business/society to the consumer.  Too address and eliminate a weakness of capitalism.  

Rates of profit allowed should be lower in particularly on teaser rate mortgages, adjustable rate mortgages, stated income mortgages, and interest only mortgage programs because of the increased risk to bondholders who take on this debt.  Additionally smaller profits on questionable programs would encourage brokers to put customers in the right mortgage product for the customer.  This can be done by slight modifications to laws already in place by states, and the federal government.

Mandate all adjustments in rates to be indexed to too the federal funds lending rate. Rather than indexes that have the potential to distort adjustments materially higher. To ensure maximum multiplier effects by federal policy. To increase transparency of investments’ in mortgage bond; hence, helping all investors be able to make better decisions.  

Prepayment penalties on mortgages need to be reduced, and morally applied to everyone alike.  I would suggest no more than one year to reflect the increased ease at which mortgages can be created, and to not unreasonable slow down transactions of home investors. To fill a loop that unfairly sets up teaser rate borrowers to large pre-payment penalties that can erode equity in homes.

Passive or active government grant type owner ship in all banking comparable to what is already in place with large federal banks could be used to help banks retain market value, continue to work to improve efficiencies, and better align there moral values with everyone in society.  Government intervention would ensure the sustainability of the banking industry despite continuing unforeseen changes in their role.  Banks need to be better able to make more thoughtful decisions without fear of going out of business.     

Handling this sensitive issue quickly would be prudent to show Americas’ ability to respond quickly to changing information.  Permanent grants can be used by individual states, entire United States, the world, and or any area of human concern. I hope to continue to share my understanding on other issues our nation faces in the future.

   

October 22, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

To buy or sell YGE, on the sell off in the solar stock.

YGE ( Update + republish) Wednesday October 8th 2008 )solar is a strong corporation with big prospects for making an impact in the search for sustainable energy in the future.  Yigle has signed many deals that will bring a great value to world regardless of profit margins.  YGE brings out more important challenges of the future in recognizing value to the world without concern for profit margins.   As oil has plummetted in recent weeks with the market.   A great value play is offered in corporations that can deliver enormous benefits to an equally sucessful, and sustainable future.

YGE solar stock is a great value at this price and way over sold.                      Tuesday    1/15/2007    12:30pm

  The company is a top tier provider in Europe that is distinguishing itself by working to become the lowest cost producer.  Conferences are scheduled 16-18th Jan 2008 Photon Tech in Shenzhen China.  Then at the World Energy Summit 21-23 Jan in Dubai.   The company should anounce results sometime in early February.   The company has been mentioned in many blogs as growth stock to be bought on weakness.   I think the market may be bottoming here.   A week latter and lower on 1/21/08  Stocks looked good at $29 and better at $25

October 8, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Day trading, and taking losses

Day trading is very hard.  The work done well is consuming and mentally draining.  Wallstreet tries to make money on every trade, and made a cardinal mistake this life time.  Being overly overlyaggressive, and continually attacking the weak.  That is not using our minds to most effectively.   The long term view, and helping other’s is of greater importance in my mind. 

 

Topstockblog has worked to focus on learning from my mistakes, and growing as a trader. 

(updated old trading notes from January 31, 2008)

Picking my battles, and limiting my losses needs to be the lesson learned.   I still like the short in COF.   The bulls’ made a great argument today.  COF has recently crossed above its 50 DMVA and bottomed with excessive volume around 40.   I could have covered my short with a long hedge.  A straddle would have worked well.  Short sellers  covered, and buyers bought.   The after hours news was icing on the cake for a bull.  Could mark the top in after hours. Rebuy doesn’t start until 2nd half of the year and the debt level ratios were mentioned indicating of more erosion of ratios in my pessimistic hope.  Really interested to see the jobs report in the morning.  More data points are going to make things more clear.  Deterorating loan quality and rising defaults are at the heart of my short sale argument on COF.   It is very difficult to day trade market successfully.  Seven tips I’d like to consistently remind myself of.

1.  Limit position size  – position size is critical to reducing being overly biased and too consumed by a single trade.  My return will be negative in the long run if I add to losing positions and over invest in a single idea.

2.  Focus on  making money in a competitive environment – Look at all angles of a trade.  The 50 DMVA shows you momentum and should adjust perspective to work with the crowd.   Identify who is buying and selling, watch the market for clues, and look for real reasons for a directional move in a stock.  Its not about feeling good or bad about a position.  It’s not about stress or lack there of.   It’s about making money.  “They are who we thought they were!  We let ’em off the hook!” Atlanta Falcons head coach after a bad game.

3. Good judgement is the ultimate winner in any market   I will be confused, and trading will be challenging.

4. Buy low, sell high.    Common sense

5. Sell high, buy low  – Common sense

6. Spread my money out more broadly – near delta neutral or at least a single bet long and short.

7. A percentage of funds in cash ensures flexibility to meet oportunity

8. Set stop losses to get out of a position when a stock does not act as you had hoped.  A maximum percentage loss when you will exit a trade. 

9. Reposition the trade to make extra profits.

 

Entertainment, and educational purposes,

October 1, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , | Leave a comment

Glass half empty or half full!

Glass half empty or half full is a matter of perspective.  Topstockblog is a strong supporter of the glass half full.  Suffering or not; god gives us an opportunity to smile, and be thankful for what we have.  An opportunity to help others’.   Enjoy life, appreciate what you have, and be thankful for the opportunities life brings your way.

 

Entertainment, and Education purposes,

Stock market terms, that means the market maker is going to be moving things around a bit to accomodate many sellers; but, confounded by realities of balancing inventories, and making a profit.  He is hoping for a big profit!

September 30, 2008 Posted by | Personal Growth, Serious Subjects that need public exposure, Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) looks like a good stock for the next 12 months,

JNJ corporation a family staple good.  Supplying a wide range of pharmeacutical products.  has an unprecedented number of supporters over at the Motley Fool an investment community; JNJ 5 star rated.  This could of course be a contradictory indicator; but, I think JNJ will trading near 70 is a safe bet with more buyers than sellers driving the stock higher in the next 12 months in my opinion.   In a recession sales of JNJ will be little effected and given it’s scale of economy it should be able to continue to increase efficiencies lowering costs supporting by the high quality products JNJ is know for.   JNJ pays out  a 2.5% dividend. 

 

Entertainment, and education

September 21, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Stock market risks, buy Gold ETF’s opinion

The stock market is a very complex system with risk. Much of the risk lies in the future earnings expectations of some industries.
 The Kirk Report is a really good source of sotck information.  Jim Cramer of Mad Money on CNBC of The Street.com is a great resource on the stock market direction. I think gold will trade to $1000 an ounce or higher. ETF’s that track gold might be a safer investment. Diversification, and hi quality investments are very important.  Unfortunately what seemed so safe a few months ago have quickly become very risky assets in large part from greed.

September 18, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , | Leave a comment

United States Senate refuses to discuss taking away tax breaks to Oil Corps.

A little sun light on why the U.S senate refuse to discuss taking away Oil corporations tax breaks ?  In a year with more record profits while Americans suffer.   The senate also failed to discuss tax cuts that are going to expire for renewable energy programs.  Tax hikes on Oil Corporations, and Pro tax cuts on renewable energy that will help our country and the world deal with both economic and environmental concerns.  Many democrats in the Senate say they are pro tax hikes on oil, and pro tax cuts on renewable energy programs.

    A loss of access to energy and environmental damage are dangers that need to be addressed through good judgement followed by sound action.  So talking about this problem and bringing sunlight to the United States Senators opposed to talking about Oil tax breaks of 17 billion dollars over the next ten years, and cutting renewable tax breaks is a mistake.  Inappropriate influence of Oil Cartels, Large Military powers (yes us), lies, and bad decisions made by people in power must have sunlight be brought to them.  A little sun light will help prevent these problems in the future.  All these events have the potential to destroy lives.  It’s just a matter of how risk is tolerated, and how well it is found to be controllable.

  Thanks for reading,  A special thanks and recomendation to United States senator Sam Wexler.   Mr. Wexler is doing a great job and sharing hope for justice with all around the world.  He continues to do so much to make are nation work appropriately.

 

Entertainment, and education purposes,

September 10, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas, Serious Subjects that need public exposure | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Buying time in the market!!

Stocks are possible at the bottom here Teusday 10 amish 7/01/08. JEC is my top pick as an infrastructure play. QQQQ, and SPY are probably good indexes to look to trade higher short to medium term

 

Entertainment purposes,

July 1, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Stock market could tank early Monday; will it set a bottom?

The United States Stock market could tank Monday with follow through selling going on.  Hedge funds are closing.  Retirees are looking to relax.   I just don’t think life can be that easy for retirees.   I see foriegn nations like China, and Venezuela diversifying into other currencies that have higher rates of inflation.  That is a macro economic force that has potential to be disruptive.   Heavy buying in Oil as a hedge against weakness elsewhere is sure to continue.   I read a report last summer saying some mutual funds and other hedge funds had not honored redemption requests from large institutions because of market pressures.  Sure, they were right the market headed lower.  Will the market be higher, next year.   Other than Japan putting forward a car design that runs on sea water.

Interest rates have risen to well over 6%, and inflation is almost sure to continue. Inflation is where you expect to pay more for goods because of conditions like higher bills, high oil prices, profiteers looking to make piles of lute, and the continued expectation. Not, too mention alot of debt in the market would be erased. Even accrued assets can be devalued through inflation.

If some nation starts a war tomorrow maybe we can get to a bottom. Other wise I suspect any bottom set may be short lived if Oil continues to head towards $200 a barrel without a serious technology moving forward along with cooperation around the world.

Entertainment purposes,

June 23, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , | Leave a comment

Brushing up on my stock watch lists and website programing…challenging work

Staying busy working on Topstockblog articles including citing sources, staying up to date on stock developments, checking spelling, and providing links is a challenge. Word Press is allowing me to learn more about website programing. Learning the basics takes trial and error. Lots of time to practice. I find and hope to share my experiences searching the net and publishing to connect with the world.

Blogging has given me an opportunity to spend my time more equally.  I read the market was over sold on the Kirk Report (highly recomend joining for a donation of $50 a year;) and decided to do some hunting for stocks that look interesting here.  Oil gets more dicey as the price moves higher; but, I imagine that will continue as supply is tight, and not alot of plans in the works to change that.  With out doing to much research with a real short perspective I like RTH, QQQQ, and AUY. With a longer perspective I would still play any stocks in my buy list that fall within my buy signals for my 50 DMVA system.  I found a new stock I will add to my watch list AEHR a technology play with growth opportunities over the next six months.

A special thanks to all readers and other website programmers. I send my concern to China that has had many dangerous earth quakes in recent weeks.
 

Entertainment Purposes only,

 

 

June 12, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Networking, learning, sharing, and adding value.

Networking is a key to success in life.   The people you meet in life have a lot to offer as does life.  Through networking we benefit from what others know and have to trade. 

   Trade takes many forms.  A successful trade is one in which both parties gain from the trade.  Successful trade is at the base of a developed civilization.  I have a college degree in economics and a minor in education.  So, blogging is fun for myself.  Recently I have been using this website to to add value and gain an audience to influence.   My blog has recently received a number of incoming links.  I thank all those who linked  to articles at topstockblog.  Linking other helpful websites is a form of trade that many bloggers benefit from along with their readers.  I have found it important to learn from others websites with intelligent articles, and ideas.  When blogging keep in mind your target audience and what they would like to read.  I have found editing past posts is a helpful way to improve your websites quality. 

 I would like to send a special thanks to yolynne.wordpress.com a blogger who has inspired this article on the value of networking with your peers.  She advocates communicating with other bloggers attempting to work from home. http://yolynne.wordpress.com/2008/06/05/workhome-for-filipinos/ 

  entertainment purposes, 

 

June 5, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Larry negative again on market 1/01/08-6/01/08

Larry adds value to the economy most of the time. Larry Cudlow of CNBC went over economic concerns caused by inflation, high energy prices, and market regulation. Larry has predicted at times in 2008 that negative economic indicators have been telling of a periodic recession; part of the capitalist system.   A United states consumer driven recession.  He spoke about the leveraged economy being vulnerable to excessive consumer debt and the possibility this could unfold into a serious recession. Larry’s most negative viewers have called for a very long and deep recession in part because of high oil prices.

Entertainment Purposes only, adding value

May 30, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

NVTL looks like a good trade

Buying Novatel Wireless (NVTL) is a solid trade in my opinion. NVTL is a stock that has historically traded in a range. Recently the stock hit the low end of its range $7-8. NVTL historically moves higher gradually after hitting the low end of it’s trading range.

Entertainment purposes only,

May 28, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Link to T. Boone Pickens interview on Oil

(Update July 23rd, 2008) T. Boone Pickens a billionaire oil man has a self paid comercial running on CNBC calling for America to get off oil as soon as possible with Wind and Solar power combined with energy saving technology, and changing behavior.  Serious challenge of our century.

(Original post May 14th) Surfing the net and I found an interesting interview. KirkReport.com a reputable stock market website often display many links to market related stories from other reputable stock market websites.

T. Boone Pickens has liked oil in the past, and I can’t wait to check out his current view point on oil.

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2008/05/09/great_t_boone_p.html

May 14, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Chasing Apple Corporation looks like a good bet

AAPL computers looks like a hit for Wallstreet and the consumer.  AAPL is working to fine tune it’s corporate email accounts to target RIMM subscribers and grow it’s base of AAPL consumers.  I think  AAPL stock will trade higher over the next six months. The Cell/Internet Iphones are a big hit, and demand is high around the world.  Products in major markets as people pay to have phones diverted to illegal carriers demand exceeds supply; even sold out in the United Kingdom.  Check out the chart and article linked to yahoo finance: AAPL

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AAPL#chart1:symbol=aapl;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080512/iphone_sold_out.html

 

 

Entertainment purposes only, Bored Guy LLC

May 12, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Invest very carefully in life and try to take all into account as you see best.

Philosophy is an art in bullshitting and intelligence. Good Judgement is always a target worth aiming for.  How many mistakes can someone make?  I don’t know that answer.  What I do know is to value you self, and the resources you have to live well.  Invest in your family. Investing in stocks can be fun and frustrating.  if you have good balance and careful judgement it might be worth while. 

Stock market appears dicey, and being diversified into different areas of you life.  Being diversified both financially and mentally helps people be less stressed out.

Live the life that makes you happy and fullfills your obligations.  Live within your means that supports your goals, happiness, and safety.  Being considerate of people less fortunate and of future generations

 

Entertainment purposes only.

May 8, 2008 Posted by | Personal Growth, Uncategorized | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Targeting Inflation to Create a Sustainable Society

Inflationary pressures in form of government payments are most appropriate to remedy inequalities promoting sustainablity, ability to store money, and contributions. Government spending on health care, infrastructure, and corporate contributions to these goals. 

  Paying corporations like IBM, AAPL, FORD, CITI, BA, GD, and many other greats corporations for advancing public benefit could be employed as an economic support. Profits paid by the government for public benefit added.  Supporting business with careful judgement.  Supporting corporations that increase the sustainability of the world, add benefit to people through convenience.  

          Inflation at a low digit percentage is much better than deflationary pressure that can slow trade unevenly.  A form of profit regardless of supporting production paid with tax revenue.  If a  home builder creates a house that is efficient, very strong, and lasts forever should he receive no profit?  Should oil corporations not recieve profit if they add value to helping other corporations to create a better product?  We need to watch for errors on the edges.

Government can account for advances in future intelligent solutions more considerate of everyone.  Macro economic money tools are guranteed by the power of the people. Supported by relentless greed of people getting a return on their investment.  Money supply financed by bonds in the United States can target a controlled inflation  better targeting real solutions.  Public statement of policies are appropriate to avoid deceptions. Many economist speak out against inflation attempting to trigger deflation. Ensuring very wealthy people have more than enough money.  Regardless of the suffering of those forced out of jobs as the world produces more goods with less employment.   Government deficit spending  can lead a nation or cause failure.  Investment in sustainability is a more appropriate course of direction.  Government was created to fill shortfalls of society.  As needs adjust so should government targets to meet these needs.  Debt forgiveness is better sought at some point to establish needs for debt relief and honest accounting standards. 

end of statement, below are some more details of my thoughts. “notes” 

     Should a bank not recieve money to support its employees, and community needs regardless of its ability to create profits?  Should a computer programmer not create the best solutions that offer the most benefit to society because he would lose profit? Should a company that creates strong computers?  Should a military corporation not be able to please shareholders when no threats of war are at   ? Should soldiers around the world have to fight endless wars despite contribution to soicety?  Man cam from a very small group of people to billions of people.  Common ground is there to be found.  “Aha” moments can be had.  People can learn from experience and support from community institutions when measured most appropriately. 

 The current economic system does a good job measuring profits and benefits but only to a point.  When points of intelligence and reason are denied in the pursuit of religion, war, life, or greed should people not rise to find solutions?  The economy is called weak and yet we have so much to be thankful for. People, government the environment, and business must rise to the challenge.   We need to find ways to evolve the economic system to be more thoughtful.   The corporations that have labored, and contributed to society should be recognized by values paid in profits. Corporations with large numbers of employees should be supported to meet peoples needs.  Employers, employees, the environment, and the government can benefit from shared responsibility most appropriately. 

Should a corporation be motivated not to create better ideas to help society because they ultimately will lose their own profits by the same tactics?  Public holdings of corporations should be taxed at a lower rate. This would compensate for the value of sharing wealth, and storing the added strength to world security.   Government should publically support inflationary prices by this type of real economic policy.  The stock market, housing market, lending policies all support trickery.  Sometimes people will go as far as to use human fear and many other abusive tactics to make a point.  It is necessary to carefully look to ways to encourage sustainable trade, employment, and individual freedoms.  An inflation policy would be a show of real strength in the world economy.  Those with money would rather jump on deflationary pressures that increase their wealth, and increasing the wealth of the richest people.   Recognizing tangible benefits, and supporting the large corporations in a manner directed to maximize human benefit, and sustainability.   

 I write to evolve economic benefits to society. To inspire people of all religions to respect human rights and work to solve problems thoughtfully. I am an economist by personal interest; not, a religous scholar.

                                                                                              

April 25, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

UNH BSC and S acting like stocks going much lower.

UNH ( 3/11/08) – is acting very poorly after a competitor well point missed earnings and cited lower margins going forwards, payment reimbursement difficulties, and a weak economy among problems. Being a voting year, many losers in health care management are possible.  Including lack of funding available for public health care programs going out of business.

BSC – was reported by Charlie Gaspirino on CNBC to have been in all parts of the mortgage process from origination, to packaging, and trading mortgage loans.  Then using funds to back other loans with Hedge funds that have blown up.   Lack of faith in BSC managements judgement is said to compound this problem.

S – is operating with negative leverage as it loses it’s base of customers because of significant problems.  ATT and VZ are taking market share with no end in sight.  Costs of operating all aspect of a cell phone business have large fixed costs, and a declining revenue base is impossible to over come.  

March 11, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Morals of markets would not matter, if they were not important to liquidity of markets

Markets are best served in a stable honest environment.  People are very willing to trade if they feel the market can be trusted.  With limited trust market trading volumes will decline.  Morals are the set of values that we try to use to guide our lives.    A further look allows us to see it also governs the lives’ of all people.  With bond markets drying up and the less fortunate being caught at a loss.   Moral hazards in the financial sector may cause this specific group to lose value going forward.     Derivatives of mortgages held by some investors called CDO’s (Derivatives  instruments for leverage and risk management purposes) and other securities  have not been kind to it’s holders.  Unless wall-street looks far enough into the future and can bring more honesty into their practices they will drink their own poisonous cool aide.  Warren Buffet commented it was nice to see those who have created poisonous cool-aide for others to drink have to drink some.  Insurance carries who have prospered from the derivative plays will likely suffer from a deterioration in trust slowing size, and number of transactions going forward.  BAC, MER, GS, BSC, and XL all have exposure to financial markets.

  On a positive note world leaders have gotten together to make a commitment to supporting market prices even if that means rigging them…lol  Leaders have made a commitment to move markets in an orderly fashion.   Economic stimulus packages have been passed, and rates of lending are being cut.    Solar corporations look they are expanding and finding needed capital to expand their contributions to the world. FSLR and YGE top solar stocks.

Entertainment purposes only;  help others ask questions later                          

February 15, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

How often does the market offer tradable opportunities?

The market occasionally becomes miss priced.  Using good judgement you may be able to make trades with an above average chance for success.  As a small investor I am trying push smaller advantages. I have learned to modify my expectation for success in stocks to find some success.   I have taken notice of how often successful traders have their money in cash.   Most successful traders keep their money largely in cash. Waiting for the opportunities to make good trading decisions.  I read an interesting article of a large investment trading fund that found only two days all of last year to make trades.  http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm   Going to have to work on my patience and education to find success.

entertainment purposes only

February 4, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bought YGE as it rallies higher

YGE a top quality solar play looks like it might be catching fire again.   The stock is up over 10% this morning. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080204/yingli_green_energy_wafers.html?.v=1  

The stock has been stagnate for a while and this sharp move higher may just be what investors have been waiting for to pour into YGE.  I wish I bought it under 20 but; I missed it.   I will be happy to catch part of the ride higher.   The Solar stocks have a lot of investors looking to profit from the environmentally friendly producers that should play a big role in the future. 

entertainment purposes only

February 4, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Lower taxes with government partnerships would make corporations much more competitive. Funded with tax credits.

 Given the size of these corporations and importance of operating with a more competitive tax structure.   As an economist I would suggest lowering tax rates from to as low as 15%.  This can be down with the government taking grant style permanent ownership in  corporations funded with tax credits for death taxes.  People could more effective plan their estates without having to make disruptive transactions of their assests before death while settling all or part of their tax burden.   A lower tax rate and partial ownership  would  be most appropriate to allow the government to reduce the tax rate on corporations. 

Private industry needs to become more competitive with lower tax rates and maintain an understanding of good morals.

Government passsive grant style ownership in corporations will help to keep markets competitive and  share risks with business in times of uncertainty.  The government could do this with any corporations and reduce stagnant money.  Greatly strengthen the balance sheet of the United States government.   Imbalances and risks need to be spread out more evenly between business, citizen’s and the government.  Government ownership clearly works to share risks with everyone.   Government involvement can guaranteed operation of businesses and rates of profit regardless if profits evaporates.   Sharing of risks stands to make society more insulated against changes in the world and esasier to make the most appropriate  decisions.  This should be done with the goal of maximizing benefits to society.  

   The influence of money is too strong and sometimes acts in appropriately.  Not creating the most efficient economy possible.   China will crush U.S citizens and corporations with  trade surplus’s and 15% tax rates.   Trade imbalances need to be eliminated over time and concern for everyone needs to be shared.    Tax rates need to be lower to encourage investment, competiveness and a debt free society.  No  more business as usual.  Honesty and hard work is the American way.   Technologies created by corporations should be profited from and shared robustly with the world to minimize waste and optimize economies of scale.             

entertainment purposes only,   

January 23, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Past thoughts on CRM

 

(January 18th, 2008 –  CRM is trading lower this morning, and I think it may be the beginning of a big move lower.   Friday  January 18th, 2008      10:30 am

  I must say thank you Cramer from Mad Money for the UA information last weak that helped me make the move to short the stock.  I lost a little shorting CRM last week another Mad Money stock from Cramer about possibility of sell off.  Today the market seems to be positioned to take the stock lower when the market is open.  CRM has very little earnings;not good in my opinion.  Growth expectations to high for slow or bear market based on principles of doing more with less.  The competition is coming from all angles.  It is just too easy to duplicate customer management software.   Good customer service, followed up witha letter, and a couple of phone calls over the next year is not worth billions of dollars.  Not saying that’s all CRM does; but, you get the point.   INTUjust entered the market with a simple customer support  service that customers can call to get help.   The article pointed out other competitors CNQR , INTU, OMTR,TLEO,SFSF,N,PAYX.  It also mentioned GOOG in the article not as a competitor; but, as a source of new business for the sector.  I can see GOOG is looking to grow to move into the sector with the low barriers to entry.  Google has good street cred as Cramer would say when it comes to delivering a friendly product that makes investors mullah. –Some adlib–

   Pricing pressure in customer management from advertising or lack ther of.   To other anticipated slow downs that can hurt. , business cutbacks,  and churn should all erode CRM’s future hopes.  At least that my opinion.   http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/17/saas-recession-concur-tech-enter-cx_sm_0118saas.html?partner=yahootix

            Entertainment and Education purposes,  Edit, Update, Cite Sources, and Help Others.

January 18, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Opportunities shorting war related stocks,

It is very clear that the country should move away from war related spending to balance the budget.       Thursday Jan 17th  2008  12pm

Going forward cutbacks in war spending are the quickest way to balance the budget.  Shorting LMT, BA, NOC, GD.   (updated found others in the industry that may suffer from cutbacks COL and ATK)

 I personally find war appalling and in these time of weakness can make a great short opportunity with good judgement.   The world would me much better represented with a dramatic decrease in spending on the war related stocks.  Shorting LMT, BA, NOC, GD.   War is not a tactic of a moral society, debtor nation, or aging society.  America may and can decide to be a peaceful nation.

             entertainment purposes only,

January 17, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Shorted retailer Under Armor (UA) , stock priced for growth

(Update 10/12/2008 Sunday) Under Armor (UA) is fighting back in a bear market. UA has had success gaining contracts and products in recent months. Check out Thomas Wheisal Conference at UA website. The stock has shown great volatility since my original post in January. UA looks to be settling into a consolidation pattern I suspect will last for a long period of time. — end update–
Being in a bear market Under Armor (UA) a trendy sports wear company seems to be fading,              11 am 1/17/08  Thursday

and the stock is getting beat up.  The corporation has been operating with a negative cash flow, and is going to have to get more soon. It just broke lower out of a consoladation trend and I was able to get short just under$40 .  I hope the stock goes a lot lower soon.  The risk is not much, Bernanke seems to offer no help and I have lost my faith in him.  (Updated 10-12-2008 Topstockblog has regained faith in Ben Bernake and lost faith in Hank Paulson.  Check out the pictures from the G-7 conference to promote economic financial stability October 2008.

Entertainment and education,

January 17, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

BUY’s on FXI, YGE, CMED, AAPL, GS,

When searching for stocks, and trading.   CNBC is always hyping one side of the story or the other (Bear Market) or (Bull Market).   It is easy to get confused.  So to watch or not to watch?   I like to watch; but, often wished I didn’t.  If you look hard enough you can find what you are looking for.  That doesn’t make it more true than the other side of the situation.  It is just too easy for CNBC to manipulate the story to expect them not to.  After all they represent a corporation dedicated to making money G.E.  I demand higher standards.  It’s not until average Joe is able to demand standards before we will get them.  I hope to do my part with my blog.

      I was a little disappointed when the friendly cute lady on the show was stopped from talking about problems in the market on Monday when it was rallying.  Confirmed my suspicions CNBC was actually against independent reporting of the news.   

I wonder how long ago China, Dubai, and India figured this out?  Too bad they might just be playing the same game.  Well with higher standards we can make sure we live in a better world.  Higher standards for drug companies, government oversight, honesty, quality of life for all, clean water tables, jobs, and a sustainable competively priced stock market are all achievable.

Any way I am going long the stock market at todays prices.  Top companies are buy out targets for over seas companies. I am taking a shot with the against the grain trade.  Getting aggressive ahead of option expirations this Friday.   I like FXI, YGE, CMED, AAPL, and GS here. 

I am working on an add on about fixing the American economy permantly.  Going to finish it up and send out the senators.  That could give the market reason to rally….lol           I’ll post it on the blog when I finish up.     I will be sending it along to some senators/my congressman and hope others will help.    

                                                for entertainment purposes only

January 16, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Freezing up, long INTC ahead of earnings

Wow!                   Monday  4 pm 1/14/2008

I sure have had a hard time pulling the trigger lately.  That feeling of freezing up has passed through me most days.  It happened a few times to my benefit last week.   I’m still carrying a lot more risk than appropriate.   I certainly don’t have the cure for freezing up (since admitted trading is not for me).  I remember reading if you are going to be successful you have to trade in the day-trading industry.  This may be true at times; but, the market has shed many hopes and jobs over it’s history.    Predefined trades were a mentioned remedy.  In my opinion it is helpful to set a stop loss up beforehand with a profit target (a set price to get out at).   My timing was rarely in touch with the market. Well that didn’t work out.  It appears as long as wall-street takes write off and has oversea’s exposure they may do very well.    Provided we can make friends in the world.   I say we work to improve the worlds poorest by giving them all chickens, lambs, and plant-able crops.  Might be better than using guns and bombs.   Went long INTC ahead of earnings with 90% of their revenue occurring over seas.

 I since pulled the trigger and moved into INTC ahead of their earning tomorrow.   INTC gets 90% of their earnings overseas and I think this will be a big plus in the earnings report and send a lot of money into the stock.  The trade did not work as the market looked forward INTC reality coordinated with the world slowdown.  Another lesson from the books everything goes down in a bear market; even the leaders.

Entertainment, and education.

January 14, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

IBM strong, stock market out look evolving.

I figured the market would either start high and close low today.   Or start low and end lower.  well maybe,     Monday Jan 14th,  2008

Well that didn’t work out.  It appears as long as wall-street takes write off and has over sea’s exposure they may do very well.   Provided we can make friends in the world.   I say we work to improve the worlds poorest by giving them all chickens, lambs, and plant-able crops.  Might be better than using guns and bombs.   Went long INTC ahead of earnings with 90% of their revenue occurring over seas.

  I do see a few cases for the long side argument one being the market has corrected.   A second reason being emerging markets continue to grow strong.  U.S business’s are benefiting and will continue to benefit from a weak dollar to boost earnings results.  IBM beat the street estimate by 20 cents   $2.80 v.s $2.6 a  share this morning .  I heard an argument on CNBC a few weeks ago that humans will continue to race ahead until all the resources are gone.  Given the weakness in the dollar, and a new president it could be a good year for the stock market.  Value entries are being talked about on CNBC this morning.  A few blogs have also made value entry comments.  I feel more neutral on the markets direction from here. .  I like AAPL, CALM, DRYS, YGE, AUY, and CMED today on the long side.  

I am still short and feeling some pain watching the ticker this morning.  Just happy I have some profits to lose.     I am going to stay short this morning and most of the week if the top is on the open this morning.  If I see the market opens up 100 and goes higher then I will start to worry more….lol     I still can’t find any reasons why the RTH doesn’t go lower.  What could possible save the retailers.   Weakness could be ahead in the markets.   The bank of England has not being able to raise cash to save Black Rock bank, and Goldman Sachs is recommending the move to nationalization of the bank.  I heard talk on CNBC of Citi bank not being able to get the money it needs from China and may to have to lay off another 20,000 jobs.  The economic theory there goes why would you save your competition.  That was the argument used by an analyst in reponse to Warren Buffet’s Berkshire investing in MBI and or other mortgage insurers in trouble.  More profitable to let your competition get weaker.     We did turn off our economy six months in front of China’s Olympics, Bejing 2008! (or at least I thought we did)  England is running an estimated 3% deficit, and talked of being in Afghanistan for decades yesterday.  I sure bet the U.S is sorry for not supporting a Soviet take over in the 1980’s of Afghanistan.    I think the pop on the open is good to help the markets re-balance.  

                                Good luck!

article for entertainment purposes only.

January 14, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bank of England moving to nationalizing Northern Rock bank! Organized by Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs helping to line up Northern Bank nationalizatin in England.  The article states no private options are viable or available.  They say they can’t find the 15 billion dollars needed to bring the bank to international standards.    Check out this article in today’s  United Kingdom Telegraph.  Lets see how the market react.  It sure helps one understand how bad things could become.  Should put a pretty big scare in the market for good reason.  I can’t imagine governments can nationalize too much.   That means a lot of banks and business’s will be going out of business the hard way with no parachute for the fall.   I give much credit for Goldman’s action facilitating the populism movement should be good for stocks longer term.  Market just needs to value sustainability instead or growth.   Sustainably growth could become should become the new methodology of evaluating stocks.  Goldman looks to be on top of the curve.     Definitely staying short QQQQ and CRM.   Going to be shorting the RTH retail holdings index Monday.  Don’t think any one can save retailers even if they wanted to.  check out the article!    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=J1D10W44PAXFBQFIQMGCFFOAVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2008/01/13/cnrock113.xml

January 12, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The stock market should be volatile monday

  1/12/08 Saturday

  Tough week for the bulls.  Most everyone lost a lot of money except the bears.  I am one of the bears; but, wish I cashed out before the close.  Verizon called me trying to get me to resign for another two years as the market closed.  I was a bit too greedy and didn’t pull the trigger earlier in the day and it may cost me.  

You are always guaranteed to lose some premium on an options contract at the open on Monday of an expiration week.  I wish I never answered that call by Verizon.  But, I guess I’ll have to wait till Monday to see what happens.   Verizon must of bought some customer management software like  CRM I am short.   Looks like the product might need some work.   

     I am sure there will be plenty of sellers going into monday with fear riding high for retirees, and the market will be none to accommodating to let them out on a large gap lower.    Could be hundred points  down or up on the open with all the volatility and associated heads games. 

Everyone seems to be looking for more cash and the market is trying to do the shakedown the best it knows how with a crash.  Must be that trade deficit catching up to us.  Disappointing the market is supporting drug, health care, and hmo’s.  I would think that the all seeing market could figure out socialized medicine is coming and in the entire nations best interest.

  Look to get in or out at your price on  Monday.  I am sure the market will go both directions.   The one thing I fear more than the banks explaining why they lost so much money.  Is the terrorist making an attack when they see weakness or us being dumb enough to attack Iran.  The world needs to work together.   I sure hope we get a president who invests heavily in solar and brings about a system of socialized medicine.   Its the only reasonable way forward. 

     Pure capitalism was created hundreds of years ago when people thought humans were heathens.   We had no idea how much one human could do or how great a country we could build.  Google is working on robots that can calculate every angle, and think more intelligently than humans while we surf the internet. I sure hope the heathens don’t blow it selling us out to the greedy.  Its no longer the rich we have to fear.  Its the greedy.  The world has enough resources so every hard working American can have a home, two kids, a picket fence, Mercedies, and a college education. 

   The Dow could crash a few thousand points according to one bear investor on t.v.  Maybe or maybe we trade higher this year.  Stranger things have happened.  I hope populist female president wins and sets the world straight.   Life’s to short and precious to be wasted on wars.    The world gets more crowded every day and respect has always been a sure way to stay out of trouble. 

 A lot of funds have set rules that have been triggered by all the weakness in share prices.  So that could provide grounds for going lower; but, the market likes to keep the investors guessing.  Jim Kramer from mad money was constructive about AAPL, AUY (Kramer’s best gold stock).  I like CMED SEED MOS and YGE for bullish trades or investments next week.  I like a short in any retailer.   I may short TIF,  BLK , or QQQQ for a trade.  I don’t see any light for TIF with the high end women already sporting all the diamonds they should rationally desire and the heathens still don’t have any money or lost it this past week.   Market makers are sure to be currently swimming in sells with all the selling these past few weeks; but,  I think they have been waiting for this and should have no problme taking the market where it needs to go wheather thats higher or lower.  

     No important indicators until Tuesday’s retail sales, retail sales ex auto’s, and PPI.  The inflation numbers are going to start moving higher or the balance sheet losses are going to pile up for retailers.  Kramer was making fun of sports retailer that said BGFV could no longer say the were the third largest sports retailer.  The environment does not seem friendly for passing along costs to the shoppers who are managing to make less transactions, and spending less each time.  Good job!  I imagine the balance sheet losses are going to pile up and inflation will stay tame. Lets hope not and the nation realizes they have a diverse region with the population equally distributed 2/3 of the 70 million that is under the age of 30.     Apple a big conference to showcase products on Monday in Europe that has always made the stock move higher in the past.  I think Apple should open much higher given the pull back and the growing number of world wide consumers that would like the new gadgets Apple creates.  Select software companies also appear to have some support  I notice that  some stock seem to be establishing a small base and others look to be heading out of business.  First I want to say it is a miracle that the banks could straighten their balance sheets out.  Society should demand they are as leanant with American tax payers.  Not the current administration, and not unless it is demanded.   Good luck getting the oblivious to notice anything going on concerning their children’s future.   I think the plan going forward is to support anything that America has patents behind and sell everything you can’t patent. Drugs stocks are definitely benefiting.  You would think no one told the investors most major drug companies have pipelines that are at best comparable to the drugs we already have on the market.  How many cholesterol, heart, depression, anxiety, or pain medication can society need.  How many CEO’s can we send to the moon if they would like.  Wake up wall-street!  Wake up America!  Over paying CEO’s is not capitalism its feudalism.  No body wants to live in a world where they don’t know if the money in the bank will be worth anything.   No wants a fixed rate triple AAA top rated fund that only returns half its investment.  

 Mrs. Clinton appears to be turning more populust to get the votes or maybe she is following her heart.   She proposed a 70 billion dollar stimulus package.  25 billion dollar tax rebate.  5 billion towards renewable energy.  That will put a dent in the 500 billion needed to put 90% of the world on solar energy in the next hundred years.  Now if she just gives back the $800,000 Michael Moore states she has received from the drug companies and health insurance companies in his movie Sicko ( A must see for all).  Maybe everyone can health care this century and doctors can still get a few hundred thousand a year in real currency.  Any way sure hope Hillary puts  a few accountants and economists back to work.   We need to reconcile our balance sheets of wealth in the country, eliminate the massive trade imbalance over time, and make some real friends.  Wake up America!!  

January 11, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Staying Short CRM, and QQQQ. Most stocks look good to short here

Given the weaknees in the market, and a number of competors in the CRM (customer management software) sector this stock should tank.  I first took the idea from Jim Cramer’s Mad Money last night about  CRM stock being priced to achieve perfect earnings given they have very little earning and a stoc multiple in the 100’s.     I bought the Jan 55 option puts.  It can take a long time for big shareholders to get out in a stock and the stock has been selling off as the market trends lower.   The stock has crossed below the 50 day moving average which should bring more sellers into the picture.  Besides insiders never miss a day to sell the stock.  Check out insider sales on yahoo finance.  Automatic sales take place just about every day according to yahoo’s stats.  
 The market maker does appear to be accumulating  alot of shares and supporting the price.   
On the QQQQ trade I can’t see any reason why the index won’t go lower.   The only thing holdnig up the market here is the drug index which is the worst index of them all long term.   With so many drugs going off patten and the number of available drugs can’t support these multipes.  Personally I and about four billion people in the world are in support of socialized medicine the stocks have a large downside risk if things go any other direction than perfect adding to QQQQ’s loss.   The growth prospects in the U.S are shot.  Bulls only hope in my opinion is that Wallstreet begins valuing sustainability and rationalizes I higher multiple accordingly.  After all a company worth should be based on the long term rate of return.  Rather than the growth rate until the next blow up.  The market is resilent and the guys on wallstreet are the brightest.  I’m staying with the down trend and QQQQ is a pretty safe way to do that.   QID is a leveraged index to play stocks short for those with no other options to get short stocks.   I hope to post a few more leveraged funds for those that want to be a touch aggressive.
     Bill Seidman the man who fixed the savings and loan crisis in the 1980’s was just on CNBC saying the current situation has similarities to that of the 1980’s.  That should surely fuel the fire as more investors wake up to reality of a full blown recession.  Defaults  should keep rising, credit tightening, and the stock market being a forward looking indicator heading lower.  I will continue to go in and out the market shorting the market.    Steve Leisman pointed out today that software stocks are vulnerable in 2008 with 30% of Ceo’s saying they would cut back on CRM software if they needed to cut back on spending due to weakness in the economy.This article is for entertainment purposes only, not investment advice.  Do your own research and only make educated decisions when trading

Now you add in my brother in law works in the sector, and he said he was expecting a flat year for the sector.  Hardly a situation that a hi growth company can be overly successful in.

CRM could go up on the other hand because it has recently sold off, and is obviously the stock is over priced because investors pay for growth, and buyers/sellers set the current price.   Kramer did say the risks were 10 points up and 30 points down. That means it could go up 10 from here.   Always remember to look at the other side of the trade, and only take the best opportunities.  Rember this site is so you can learn from my mistakes as well as succeses. Good luck

January 11, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market maker thoughts on figuring his position

Update (6/15/2008)  The market maker has a wicked control on the market, and should show good profits as GS reports this week along with private firms like Scottrade Securities.)  Market moves with conviction, and revaluation as we find real terms.  I still think beer first, get high 2nd, and lover; then kiss your neighbor if he wants peace; kill your neighbor if he wants war!

At the bottom or top of any market their are lots of sellers (at the bottom) and lots of buyers (at the top) so the market maker is taking the other side of the market and it is in his interest when things get to an extream in any time frame to  go the other way of trader psychology. 

 

 

In the shortest of time frames the market maker is on the other side of any trade that is placed when he can not match orders for a buyer, and seller.   The computer algorithm or market maker is in charge of setting a buy, and sell price for the market regardless if there is a buyer or a seller.   If someone makes a block trade larger than the size of the market you will often see the stock make a print that is outside the offered bid and ask.  Well now you know someone has made a transaction for that amount of shares on the buy side if it was higher, and on the sell side if it was lower.  The market maker has made a deal to take on a larger transaction  at slight discount or premium to the market.  

A successful openings only strategy I learned from Bright Trading is buying or selling major stocks on the New York stock exchange when a stock gaps open outside of a normal trading range.  You could use this strategy on any market; but, Bright felt the other markets were two unpredictable.  Say MER gaps opens 5% higher tomorrow in the morning you could short the stock, and have a trade with a positive expectation.  In theory going on the side of the market maker (the specialist as they call it).  If it gapped lower they would go long the stock looking to exit the trade with in thirty minutes to gain a small amount of money.  In theory the market maker has  alot more buys than sells  at the open on a gap higher so naturally it is in the market makers interest if those people leave the trade with a loss, and if he has other people taking the other side of the trade.  So routinley the stock will trend back towards the mean at least for a quick time to exit with a profit.

 

January 11, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Balancing Emotions of trading

Balancing my emotions is trading stock is one of the hardest things I personally have had to do.   Balanced emotions are necessary to make good investment or trading decisions.  As the market rallies, and I sit short in my positions that I am losing a lot of money in.  I find my self smiling writing this article.  Hardly the way I felt when I was very nervous about the long position I had a call option yesterday that I worried all night about. Wish I held on to that.  What I take away from that is that I have a negative bias on the market even if that makes me wrong.  I feel more stressed out when I have a long position in the market.  Part of me to be honest is afraid of some sort of a disaster in the world and finds it easier to see the argument for the down side in the market.  Needless to say this feeling needs to be put in check. 

Asking myself a simple question is also helpful.  Which direction would I be if I was the market maker. Is his trade accounting buys against sells   likely balanced or way out of wack.    The market maker is the one guy that can’t lose or the market would not operate.  In recent times I have seen a market that feels like it could fall apart.   Just because the markets are automated doesn’t mean the system can lose money.   So trades will usually go the opposite direction of the emotions of the average trader.   Am I acted opposite of Joe investor? or am I acting like Joe investor?  If acting as opposite Joe investor I probably should have more confidence if I have come up with the trade for good fundamental/technical tools that brought me to take a chance.  On the other hand if I am on the same side of average Joe investor.  i.e. I felt like selling when the market was down this morning becuase the bank of England held rates steady to fight inflation.   I should have felt more confident with my long position.    I should reflect to the reasons I entered the trade, realize the market should move higher because by this point in the sell off everyone is selling and the market maker can’t lose money.  The market maker needs to at least get closer to even on his buys and sells. That’s why markets peak, and bottom when everyone is buying or selling.  The market maker has the biggest advantage at this point if things go the opposite direction.  To do this he must drive the others out of their positions.   So maybe I cracked the alogorythm of the automated market maker.  Good luck balancing your emotions.   Much of the market volatility can be expected as the market maker moves the market to keep his trades balanced.  Here are five (okay eight) quick ideas I am going to try to follow.

1. Stay on the side of the market maker.  Be aware of who the buyers and sellers are in a stocks

2. Only enter the best trades.

3. Be patient.

4. Limit position sizes to an amount I am comfortable losing.

5. Review the risk reward of a trade before making it. 

6.  Use bollinger bands (moving average trading range).

7.  Be more balanced to the fact that the market is priced to all known information.   The future is unknown.    

8.  Reading other intelligent stock trading blogs (Kirk report a top blog) and books.  CNBC seems to be overly biased at times to boost television ratings.

  9.  Work hard, and continue to review my material to make good decisions

January 10, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Economic policy to keep America strong in the face of a bear market

 Economic policy to keep America strong in the face of a bear market

The government needs to cut taxes, liabilities, and debt to stay competitive in the global marketplace. To pay for these tax cuts the government should offer to settle estate taxes early for those over the age of 65.  Also, possibly negotiate the settlement of retirement benefits to reduce estate taxes owed at death for the many retirees that don’t need the money. 

The rate of profit a business is expected to return in the future declines because competition around the world competes at higher capabilities.   The government currently carries idiotic large debt loads because of the inappropriate influence of money. The budget needs to balanced and idle money needs to be taken out of the market. Many municipalities and local governments will default at some point in the future with higher borrowing costs, high debt loads, and stagnation. 

The government should work to reduce medical payments paid out through government programs.  This can be done in part by expanding the number of specialized doctors around the country. To meet the growing demands our country has for medical care and ensure competition is competitive.

Greatly expanding the number of doctors in training admitted to doctoral programs is essential to making this happen.  The supply of specialized doctors has been limited by Universities whom I speculate have received large contributions from alumni to unconscionable fail to expand the number of doctoral training programs needed to keep pricing competitive, and pass along the gains our society has made to be able to produce highly educated citizens. Government intervention in any area that money inappropriately influences is necessary and key to a moral and efficient society.

Education is the most cost effective way to deal with all the world’s problems and is not something to be feared.  Education programs should be spread and kept affordable to help society reach our potential in life.

 As our capitalist society matures, private citizens have stored up large amounts of wealth, governments have high levels of debt/obligations, and much of the infrastructure we need going forward is already built. As a result, rates of profit will be lower, and the government needs to intervene to ensure moral as well as proper financial decisions are made.

The government can take passive ownership in large corporation or in real estate to settle estate taxes, and allow citizens to maintain control of the properties that they have obtained over their life time. The government can help facilitate business, and greatly reduce the costs of businesses to operate.

Reducing the money supply will take stagnant money out of the economy, and help society adapt to a more competitive environment. The economy can operate with lower margins as society becomes more efficient; additionally, continuing to add value to society.

The reasons why we need to take these actions 

  China is moving deliberately, appropriately, and swiftly to achieve advantage over the United States.   Much of the nation’s problems can be eliminated with the early settlement of retirement benefits, and the settlement of death taxes.   Restoring our competitive place in the global market and benefiting everyone.  The country would be aligning our national interests with all other nations in particular the Chinese, and greatly reducing the risk and or inappropriate reliance on wars in the future.  Trade balance between competitive nations’ are supposed to be equal. In economic theory a nation is supposed to export as much as it imports from a competitive nation.  Over time with the right policies we can find this balance with all nations as we should have been doing so in the past.  It is pure garbage that is our nation’s interest to keep operating with trade imbalances.  

    The Chinese government has recently moved from a communist society to one that is a 50/50 ownership between society and the private citizens.  I assume they chose the 50/50 rate to give both maximum flexibility and to target the best estimate of long run improvement in efficiency over a life time.   China is currently using a 15% rate of taxation on many of its enterprises because they own half of the large corporations. So they achieve the same tax revenue stream as the United States from businesses’ with one third of the taxation rate. This gives Chinese business’s a huge long term advantage that will compound over time. This could result in disaster for our nation if we are unable to achieve a comparable business model.

China has a lot of idle money in United States government securities compounding interest over time, and extending the competitive advantage of China to compete in the world economy.  We must negotiate with China and find compromise. We need to begin to settle these debts for assets reclaimed in the early retirement of estate taxes and become close allies of China working toward the common good.  We have lots of technology to share that will greatly benefit both societies in the long term.

  

We have made huge advances in solar technology, and salt water was recently made drinkable with the use of a special ray of light in a university lab. We need to move rapidly towards making solar technology and all energy saving a bigger piece of the solution.  Finding ways to share these technologies on our terms with other nations can be very helpful in promoting common welfare, economic growth, and sustainability.

A Capitalist model working together with a communist model has the greatest benefit for everyone.   Both capitalism and communism can work together to add the most value to society with the least risk.  A pure Capitalism system pits those with money against those without money looking for no common ground. A pure Communist system fails to account for individual needs and abilities. Pure capitalism produces violent economic cycles with all classes suffering. Pure Communism produces a less productive society.  Money also becomes isolated in pure Capitalism and leads humans to make inappropriate choices. You see this played out in our society as special interests have inappropriate influence over government officials. Causing politicians to neglect the best interests of the people they represent.  In the past, our nation has resisted renewable energy such as the sun, in favor of importing large amounts of oil overseas and causing unnecessary environmental damage, so a small group of people could get unbelievably rich. 

Many American corporations and citizens currently have large buying power, and will lose those benefits without appropriate intervention.    The cutting of taxes, reduction of current/future liabilities, and retaining of purchase power by our nation is in the entire countries best interest. As well as the world we live in. 

 United States runs a dangerous risk of ruining its credit rating at some point in the future, and can be particularly damaging considering will become more scarce in the future.  Sovereign wealth funds can become more dangerous if we become very weak.  Contrary to what you may have been told about a recent purchase of 7% of Citi group by a foreign sovereign wealth fund is it was made in preferred stock. If the company fails, the sovereign fund will own a much higher percentage than when it originally was reported to have taken a stake in Citi Group Corporation.  Keep in mind they paid cash, and if they become more aggressive they could take control of so much more of the world’s technology.  If we try to limit this investment we run the risk of being cut off of natural resources.  China has recently made a purchase into Black Stone group a corporation that specializes in corporate take over’s. This makes it very clear why trade balances are necessary to be balanced over time.  Isolation is not the solution.  United States corporations receive much of their revenue from foreign nations.  Finding common ground is the solution.

 Our dollar has stood as the world’s storage of wealth because of faith our government could always figure out the answer to any problem.  Well that view is being challenged in the mind of everyone because of poor choices, and arrogance.   The world has limited resources available and we need to be mindful of this.

  As the dollar weakens in a pure capitalist environment it would be in the world’s best interest to exploit this and take advantage of opportunity for their benefit.  We need to switch to a government policy model that seeks sustainability and quality of life for all to bring the world together.

 Humans breed like rats in conditions of poverty and that is arguable the most important reason it is in our best interest to make sure everyone in the world has a good quality of life.   Deals can and need to be made to individuals or nations to control the populations as seen in China.  Are poorest citizens having the most the children and our government subsidizes the problem with payments.  The problem grows and gets worse over time.  Instead we should pay the poorest not to have children and share technology in exchange.  The world can live happily ever after with proper planning and appropriate actions as our world become more advanced.

Conclusion

Taking responsibility with these aggressive actions will help us meet the challenges of the future.  By using the most responsible way to handle our debts, and deal with predictable problems that could arise from the financial burden of our debt we will greatly benefit. 

Corporations could better focus on meeting societies’ needs. All would benefit from the increased efficiencies of scale and sustainability.  It’s a simple change switching from that of a growth dominated society to one of sustainability.  The later should receive a higher valuation in the world market.   The reduction of government debt, entitlement payments, and government ownership is in the best interest of everyone.    

Handling these sensitive issues quickly would be prudent to show Americas’ ability to respond quickly to changing information.  This legislation can be spread broadly to individual states, and the nation.   Please share this idea to gain the support of all and find the best solution. The quality of life for the nation, the environment, and the world’s population depends on good judgment.  Please investigate my ideas, and pass legislation early to the benefit of all.  Any one in elected office can win any election with good policy judgment!

  

Resources

  

Trend Following by Michael Covel

2006 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Contradictions of Capitalism & an introduction to Marxist Economics by Lenny                        Flank      Red and Black pub. Aug 1, 2007 

                                            

  

Education

Excelsior College   Bachelors degree in the liberal arts of science with a major in economics and a minor in education

January 10, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Short Sold QQQQ

Be careful, and don’t be long this market are my thoughts.  I cashed in my long position on a QQQQ  I went long based on the oversold condition and hoping the British Central bank would lower rates.  They cited fear of inflation as the reason for not doing so.  Not a perfect exit near the low on the open this morning the QQQQ’s.   Then I resumed my short position as the market came close to neutral on the day. Bill Seidman the guy who fixed the savings and loan crisis in the 1980’s was just on CNBC saying the current situation has similarities to that of the 1980’s.  Bill was concerned if the consumer realizes things are getting bad they may tighten up and make the situation worse. That should surely fuel the fire as more investors wake up to reality. With economy weaknening, defaults risings, credit tightening, and the stock market being a forward indicator I will continue to go in and out the market shorting the market.   The trend is lower. (I giving back my profits on this one)

I should have waited to catch a pop in the market.  With alot of people selling or buying you know there is going to be alot of volatility.  So try to buy low and sell hi. (talking to myself on this one…lol)  with a Crashing the stock market is the easiest way the rich can protect their buying power in a weak economy. Its going to get worse in my view.

January 10, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Short Sold CRM, over priced stock in a weakening economy

Given the weaknees in the market, and a number of competors in the CRM sector this stock should tank.  I first took the idea from Jim Cramer’s Mad Money last night about  CRM stock being priced for perfect earnings.   I further found they had very little earnings.    I bought the Jan 55 option puts.  It can take a long time for big shareholders to get out in a stock with low volume.  The stock has crossed below the 50 day moving average which should bring more sellers into the picture.  Besides insiders never miss a day to sell the stock check out insider sales on yahoo finance.  Auto sales have taken place just about every day!!

Be careful, and don’t be long this market are my thoughts.   Bill Seidman the guy who fixed the savings and loan crisis in the 1980’s was just on CNBC saying the current situation has similarities to that of the 1980’s.  That should surely fuel the fire as more investors wake up to reality. With economy weaknening, defaults risings, credit tightening, and the stock market being a forward indicator I will continue to go in and out the market shorting the market.   

 Steve Leisman pointed out today that software stocks are vulnerable in 2008 with 30% of Ceo’s saying they would cut back on CRM software if they needed to cut back on spending due to weakness in the economy.

This article is for entertainment purposes only, not investment advice.  Do your own research and only make educated decisions when trading

Now you add in my brother in law works in the sector, and he said he was expecting a flat year for the sector.  Hardly a situation that a hi growth company can be overly successful in.

CRM could go up on the other hand because it has recently sold off, and is obviously the stock is over priced because investors pay for growth, and buyers/sellers set the current price.   Kramer did say the risks were 10 points up and 30 points down. That means it could go up 10 from here.   Always remember to look at the other side of the trade, and only take the best opportunities.  Rember this site is so you can learn from my mistakes as well as succeses. Good luck

January 10, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Made a long trade on the QQQQ’s

The downside appears to be limited given investors have been selling for the Nasdaq 8 days straight lower.  Goldman recomended a buy on the drug stocks which is supported the QQQQ that are present in the index.   London is scheduled to make cuts in rates tomorrow, and Beranke is set to make a speech tomorrow. Got in when the Nasdaq was down.   Berkshirt hathaway said they are looking to make a deal with one the current morgtage insurers which should limit the downside move in the stocks in the next 24 hours.  I am hoping a short term bottom has been achieved. Solar stocks also look over sold short term trade set up.  CMED a medical device company with strong growth in China just covered a gap.

Not alot of  profit in trade.  Just looking for a quick gain on the Jan 46 call options.  Taking profit early tomorrow on what I hope to be a pop, and positive close today.   I have been short QQQQ most of the past week.

January 9, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Stocks ready to go lower BLK, LEH, MTG and MBI

The bear market looks to be rocking and rolling!!                             January 8th 2008

 I like a short entry into MTG.  The company offers mortgage insurance to homeowners that purchased borrowing a hi debt to equity ratio in some cases going over 100% of than the homes originally worth.  Home values have since declined, and defaults have risen substantially.  The government is offering no help to the company or home owners.  Warren Buffet just entered the business with a top of the line tripple A credit rating insurance agency for home purchases and should grab much of the new business.  MTG has hoped new business would help it’s business offset losses.  With home sales declining and new competition the company is likely going to zero.

LEH presents an opportunity to short  sell it as they were behind alot of packaging of bond sales in municipal bonds and mortgage bonds (two funds recently defaulted). The mortgage packaging business has dried up and may never return.  The company is being investigated for not disclosing the risks of the mortgages they sold as hi quality after problems were likely all ready known.  Charlie Gasparino a CNBC contributer has reported, “No wallstreet corportation has ever survived an indicment.”  CNBC’s  Fast money reported the stock as a good short tonight.  Fast money is a great source of accurate trading information.  

BLK  a public hedge fund had two of it’s money market funds declared junk over the holidays by S&P ratings agency.  Then asked the ratings agency to remove the company from it’s rating system. The company has since frozen the funds and not honered withdrawal requests by investors.

MBI a bond insurer should also go to Zero as defaults on bonds rise in all area’s of business.

All suggestions should be taken as that of entertainment value, and opinions to further investigate.  Not investment advice or an endorsement to make any trading decisions.

January 9, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , | Leave a comment

Two stocks to buy in today’s market CMED and YGE

CMED and YGE are two top growth Chinese stocks that will benefit from the weak dollar and strong yuan. 

CMED is my top pick for the year a medical equipment company with incredible growth opportunities ahead of it.  The company is growing revenues at over 80% a year with high margin businesses, and recurring revenue. China’s medical care industry is just in its infancy.  Management is proving to be brilliant adding and acquiring new businesses like the closing today on Beijing Bio-Ekon Biotechnology, a fast-growing ECLIA diagnostic equipment for use in all kinds of medical problems including diabetes player in China. The Acquisition is expected to strengthen the Company’s leading position in advanced  invitro diagnostics (IVD) market in China. The Company expects the Acquisition to immediately add to both revenues and non gap net income in the current quarter.

YGE is a top of the line solar growth stock forcasing growth in revenues and earnings at around 100% this year. The companies has analyst targets as hi as $196 over six times the current price.. YGE is gaining the attention of investors, and has pulled back to a good entry point with the sell off in the market.

January 9, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , | 1 Comment

Stock buying tips for the novice and new investors

Quick Rules to help novice investors and or any one looking to improve their chances for financial success.    

1. Figure out and write down your objectives for investing in the stock market.  Now come up with a short term plan to achieve your goal, and set up a date to review your plans, and make adjustments.  Realistic time frames to make money in the stock market are much longer than I had initially hoped.    Being too aggressive will probably cause you to lose money in the short and long term.  So try to expand your time horizons for making money to longer time frames, and lower you expectation for the amount of money you would like to maket.  Staying in the invetsing game is most important to expanding your chances of being financially successful in the market. 

2. Consider trading exchange traded funds (ETFs).  ETFs funds are highly liquid.  They often can be traded with less stress because you have alot more buyers, and sellers trading.  This keeps ETF’s proportionately more liquid than the underlying stocks held in the ETF fund.  I am currently trading the Nasdaq Power shares QQQQ options.  This market is very liquid and can be very profitable.  the market is most competively priced to perfection 

2. Focus on buying the best stocks that have a history of revenue and or earnings growth, and predictions for revenue growth in the future. The first two stocks I ever purchased went to zero.  Don’t buy something just because you can affford it.  Buy something becuase it is the best value for what you can afford, and balance this with your time frame goals for investing.  Many of the highest growth stocks have hi price tags that are designed to turn away the novice investors.  Better to buy less shares of a high quality stock than a lot of shares of a stock that may have problems they can not overcome like getting financing or growing its customer base.

3. Sell stocks that have revenue declines, and or no earnings.  A stock that has no growth and or revenues are avoided by intelligent investors. This usually leads to a stock being flat or declining in value over time. Be wary of stocks traded on off beat stock exchanges because they often are unrealistically optimisitic about the future and some may be dishonest in their press releases.

4. Define a list of stocks you would like to watch looking for attractive entry prices, and new devlopments.  Continue to learn and keep track of these stocks. 

5. Buy stocks above the 50 day moving average. This shows the stock is trending higher over time.  You can buy a stock on a retracement to the 10 ,20, or 50 day moving average if it is currently trading way above its 50 day moving average.  This will help you from should help you to avoid some of the noise in the market and use good fundamentals to support your chances of sucess.  You can make adjustment in purchasing price depending on how hard you believe it may be to find an entry into what you may hope to be a sky rocketing stock.

6. Make value entries when strong stocks are oversold.  This is when a stock is believed to be oversold and will likely retrace towards the average trading price of a stock like the 50 day moving average creating a good chance to make a profitable entry point.

7. Think about who the buyers and sellers are in a particular stock are.  Is it value investors, growth investors, and or governments.  Use this knowledge to help figure if there are more buyer or sellers.  Look for articles mentioning top institutional funds investing in the stock, insider buying, and or respected people like Jim Kramer from Mad money to be recomending the stock. 

8.  Set a stop loss to exit a trade if it does not act as you had hoped.   Set a maximum percentage to lose on a trade.  Its important to get out quickly with a 5 or 10% loss to preserve your investment money for trades that work well.  Also set up a plan to exit the trade with a profit. Don’t get to gready or take profits to quickly.  I have found it helpful to sometimes sell  or buy half of a position at one price and the rest at another point.  

   

January 8, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , | Leave a comment