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RTH looks like a good short at the higher end of it’s trading range

Update 6/13/08:  The RTH has risen pretty quickly along with most of the stock market.  I would like to go short Monday 6/15/2008.   QQQQ seems to be my favorite short sale position.   RTH; no real opinion!

(5/29/2008) RTHindex looks like a great short on the bounce higher.  The retailers look to be in trouble with consumers tapped out.  The RTH has alot of stability being an index and offering a small dividend. WMT being the largest stock in the index. RTH appears to be range bound and can be sold when over bought, and bought when over sold
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080207/bonds.html?.v=2

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June 13, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Short Sold FL and RTH, Retailers out look poor

Foot Locker will probably be one of the hardest hit in a recession.  Goldman Sachs cut the stock to sell mid January with a target price of $10 http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/sector_snap_athletic_footwear.html?.v=1   I was happy to find Goldman Sachs looking for a sell on the stock.  They are one of the most accurate stock pickers.  FL has bounced recently along with the RTH index and looks like it should retest it’s lows in my opinion.  I don’t see any thing that can make the shoe retailers future look bright.  New shoes are something that most people including myself will cut back on when money is tight or for lack of exciting new products. http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/15/hibbett-sport-closer-markets-equity-cx-ra-0115markets42.html?partner=yahootix  The company is in a very competitive market.  With manufacturers raising the prices on the shoes they sell and cost fixed margins will be small.  Foot Locker and retailers are put in a bad situation to deal with declining margins or sales depending on how they price the shoes on the shelves.  

On the other hand the buy side argument for FL is a small amount of insider buying,  a divident yield of 3%, and 150 store closings.  Much of the labor lay offs will be swallowed by workers rather than the corporation.  

With the market looking like it is rolling over I shorted the RTH.  The idex is in a down trend and has recently bounced higher making a good entry as fundamentals of the Retailers deteriorating.  I looked further at the components of the RTH to see what I was shorting more precisely. The largest components are listed at yahoo  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=RTH   AMZN 7%, BBY5%, COST6%,CVS6%HD11%,KR4%,LOW7%,TGT8%,WMT18%

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February 4, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Tricky market, shorted RTH on the pop higher

(Exited  trade because the rate cut will has a positive effect on earnings with the Refy business coming back.  HD and LOW look best in the group. Updated 1/23/08 3 pm )   Retailers trading up today.  Not sure why in this bear market; so I took the oppotunity to short the RTH index.  Not sure about the market direction from here.  I would guess we continue lower.  I am still in my short on CRM.  I exited the XL trade because the stock was already sold off, and buyers started to come in as they did with MBI scaring me out.  XL hit a low around 36 this morning.  May well have been a bottom as the Fed cutting rates should allow business’s and homeowners to find some ways to save money refinancing.  I wish I would have tooken the plunge long into YGE on the open around 21-22

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January 22, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bank of England moving to nationalizing Northern Rock bank! Organized by Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs helping to line up Northern Bank nationalizatin in England.  The article states no private options are viable or available.  They say they can’t find the 15 billion dollars needed to bring the bank to international standards.    Check out this article in today’s  United Kingdom Telegraph.  Lets see how the market react.  It sure helps one understand how bad things could become.  Should put a pretty big scare in the market for good reason.  I can’t imagine governments can nationalize too much.   That means a lot of banks and business’s will be going out of business the hard way with no parachute for the fall.   I give much credit for Goldman’s action facilitating the populism movement should be good for stocks longer term.  Market just needs to value sustainability instead or growth.   Sustainably growth could become should become the new methodology of evaluating stocks.  Goldman looks to be on top of the curve.     Definitely staying short QQQQ and CRM.   Going to be shorting the RTH retail holdings index Monday.  Don’t think any one can save retailers even if they wanted to.  check out the article!    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=J1D10W44PAXFBQFIQMGCFFOAVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2008/01/13/cnrock113.xml

January 12, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment