Topstockblog

Blogging to add value. Sharing and discussing helpful websites, money, stocks, etc.

Buying time in the market!!

Stocks are possible at the bottom here Teusday 10 amish 7/01/08. JEC is my top pick as an infrastructure play. QQQQ, and SPY are probably good indexes to look to trade higher short to medium term

 

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July 1, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Stock Market review reflecting on past trading ideas, and set ups.

Republish + Update 6/16/2008.   Good stock post covering many stocks with good notes to reflect on for stock traders who focus on BA, GD, INTC, CRM, QQQQ, XL,  YGE, UA,

UA shorting idea worked well.  UA took a big dive this week as its growth expectations                   (Saturday January 19th,  2008)

  ran into a recession.   Trade was a Cramer idea from a few weeks ago, moved with the market trend, preannounced a tough first half next year.

INTC long trade ahead of earnings was a big mistake, entered $23.15 currently at $19 exited near open at $20.   An options straddle trade both long and short the immediate earnings options would have worked.  The stock rallied on IBM’s positive pre-earnings Monday.  I rationalized with INTC having 90% of it’s earnings over-sea’s the stocks current and future earnings would have exceeded expectations.  In hinde site I gather the wide and competive coverage on the INTC the positive effect of the weak dollar had already been priced in by analysts’.   Increased doubts going forward  due to possible economic slowing around the globe caused selling leading to a lower share price .

I shorted CRM last week, and again this week.   I shorted on a mention by Cramer about the stock possible being overpriced.  Cramer from Mad Money mentioned how he thought if the stock showed any signs of slowing at earnings the stock would get taken down big. The trade off his coments did not work the first time without perfect execution.  The market did offer a tiny window to execute the trade profitable.   I  then re-entered the trade Friday as the stock was selling off when the market opened higher.  I am hoping the street is ready to take this one down. Earning should be out sometime mid February.  (exited trade near even, Company sells hope and some people like the stock here  1/23/08)

I entered into a short trade on XL late Friday.  I am around even on the trade so far.  I saw a lot of selling going on in the stock and for good reasons.  Two directors stepped down last month, and  moodies placed some of its CPDO’s fund in junk status.  The fund is a complicated derivatives trade that allowed XL to offer insurance coverage on corporate debt staying top investment grade.  Junk status indicates to me that people are likely to not get paid.  I assume these people will be paid before common shareholders. A lot of selling has gone on these past two trading days. I hope I am not too late to the party.  (rate cut will help the company find balance 1/23/08 update)

YGE long trade I backed out of quickly because the stock just became weaker.  I did exit on a bounce that softened the blow.   I’m not sure if first quarter earnings are going to be up to par; but, sure long term the company is a big winner with top technology. I think the stock currnetly priced around $25 is a good for a long trade.  Timing of the entry is what I am trying to do well provided $24 and change on Friday may have been the best spot to get in. Only time will tell .     (long trade on at $23 hoping for a big rally updated 1/23/08 3pm)

 QQQQ appears to be stabilizing as the semiconductors are acting strong.  A long trade may be called for before another shorting opportunity arises here.    (wish I had more money I would buy some 1/23/08 3pm update)

Shorting war related stocks (LMT BA, NOC, GD, COL, ATK,) posted 12pm  Thursday 1/17 /08  ***The trade is up about 1-2%. Anyone in the previous week was up 5%-10%.  All but one of the stocks is below the 20,50, and 200 day moving averages.   I was hoping ATK was a good opportunity to short.  I found a few reasons on both sides; but staying bearish on the side line because the war stocks are below the 50 and 200 day moving average.  Stocks can trend for a while.  Istill think the United states is in a bearish cycle.  The decline of activity in Iraq could slow propects for future war equipment sales.   ATK was put on credit watch negative by Fitch recently.  A stock offering posible in the works stated http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080109/alliant_techsystems_ratings.html?.v=1.   debt levels are high to meet needs to buy an information systems and aerospace business unit for 1.31 billion dollars.  http://www.reuters.com/article/tnBasicIndustries-SP/idUSN0825031520080109    The stock is oversold short term.  The deal is flat on already strong earnings for 2008, and accretive in 2009 provided no unforseen cutbacks by the government. The company has state of the art technology.  Possible short term catylsts could be a market moves, breaking out of war, government cut backs, and or election promises.

I will update.

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June 16, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Brushing up on my stock watch lists and website programing…challenging work

Staying busy working on Topstockblog articles including citing sources, staying up to date on stock developments, checking spelling, and providing links is a challenge. Word Press is allowing me to learn more about website programing. Learning the basics takes trial and error. Lots of time to practice. I find and hope to share my experiences searching the net and publishing to connect with the world.

Blogging has given me an opportunity to spend my time more equally.  I read the market was over sold on the Kirk Report (highly recomend joining for a donation of $50 a year;) and decided to do some hunting for stocks that look interesting here.  Oil gets more dicey as the price moves higher; but, I imagine that will continue as supply is tight, and not alot of plans in the works to change that.  With out doing to much research with a real short perspective I like RTH, QQQQ, and AUY. With a longer perspective I would still play any stocks in my buy list that fall within my buy signals for my 50 DMVA system.  I found a new stock I will add to my watch list AEHR a technology play with growth opportunities over the next six months.

A special thanks to all readers and other website programmers. I send my concern to China that has had many dangerous earth quakes in recent weeks.
 

Entertainment Purposes only,

 

 

June 12, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

What direction will the world take? Lifes economics

 Is the glass half full or half empty?  Hard questions are important to ask each other.   “Have no fear for no one can stop the time.” Bob Marley Redemption songs.   “People can go in any direction they want to.”  Topstockblog. 

Corporations  may have been created to make profits.  They do deliver enormous benefits to the world.  A number of values and standards have been accounted for as society has demanded higher standards for people and the environment.   Do we have to continue to look at places we can go wrong? Yes.  Should we just let corporations make the rules? No.  History tells us that great mistakes can be made with out very careful consideration of our actions and those of others.  We should look for warely  for potential Trojan horses.   The war in Iraq led by George Bush Junior and religious fanatics have produced a hell on earth for so many people living in fear and losing their lives.  Society can fix and best manage drawbacks with careful communication, trading opportuities, and consideration.   Delivering the maximum benefit of services to people when they add value.   People are best served when compensated for looking to the future.  We have some compensations in place.  We can add further incentives to decrease U.S consumption and help future generations of people. Taxes, Health care and banking are places society can lower costs and boost long term functioning.   Citizens who choose to consume less could be compensated with  tax relief, debt relief, and health care.  Is this why checks of welfare were made to poor people in the United States to reduce consumption while maintaining basic needs of people?  Welfare became seen and abused by the masses.  People in the United States now have children for money they will recieve.  We should motivate the least fortunate to not have children rather have more children worstening the effects on society.   Further communication and understanding of purpose on earth is needed to share benefits most appropriately.   We can reduce consumption by increases in technology, and a public with higher moral standards of heaven on earth.    We currently save money in banks, physical property, and intellectual property.  We can boost benefits for increases in education to meet challenges of the future and present most appropriately.   Some save massive amounts and yet others consume massive amounts with no concern for others.  Are they really that much better than the those that save or the less fortunate?  I think corporations could adopt more regulations.  Their will always be winners in losers in life.  It is a perception or reality of force that leads us to reality.  We should value what we leave for future generations.  Corporations can not make endless profits in a confined space with limited resources available?   The economy is best served with a long term out look trying to account for draw backs.   We can build an economic system that best meets peoples needs.   We have had a strongest functioning economy defined by any period of time.  The world needs to work closely together to share common ground.  We need to communicate thoroughly and repeatedily to meet the standards of the world while looking to protecting the planet for the future. Many competing economic systems have been used thought out the history of man.  Many of them with a large warring component.  We want to stay away from war and protect all people from violence.   We can offer minimum standards to the world.  Millions of people in the world live in a growing dangerous world.   This situation is best managed with considerable thought, and much communication.  Shared concern.    We can manage the number of people on the earth and share benefits with rules better than the current system.  I estimate the world can sustain around 2 billion people if all people received minimum standards we have grown accustomed to in the United State.  We should compensate those who choose not to have children to protect the future.  Growing together and communication can greatly reduce violence.    If   humans can go in so many different directions.  Then why are so few of them the right? 

Entertainment purposes only, help others, ask questions later

February 19, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Shorting ETF’s from SeekingAlpha.com, Great website for stock market information

Seeking Alpha is a great website.  The site has lots of traders offering quality stock market information.   I just read an article thats answers alot of questions about shorting stocks.  The article suggest shorting QQQQ and SPY ETF’s if you were goign to try and short a stock.  I found the article very helpful.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/61431-shorting-etfs-goodbye-to-the-old-risks?source=d_email

January 27, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market going to test the lows again, bearish GOOG

With some people just not understanding why things could be better with compromise I believe the stock market will crash.  The key to my hope and change to optimisism was the market appeared to be getting it that we are all in it together.   Bill Gates being progressive trying to help the impoverished.  The house introduced a bill to restate the governments responsibility to everyone.   It hasn’t been passed yet.  The can’t move forward if people think the goal is to try and get over on one another. 

The rate cut could make a difference if people have faith in the value of a lower interest rate to banks.  Not sure it will work yet.  Customers may not be as quick as they were last time to go for lower rates.  So the one week effect of rate cuts boosting stock prices as seen in the past may or may not show up.

The smart ass comments back in the mix from CNBC reporters about pure capitalism is the answer and always has been is very concerning.  The world again realizes these guys’ don’t get it and might just never get it.  Until they do get it.   I am staying bearish.  An additional rate cut should make things interesting; but, when used as a tool to get over on people can’t possible be the answer.

  I like a shorts position in GOOG especially http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080125/22841725.html?.v=1   I think Google has very specific to google problems pitching ads for mostly crap, and competition is coming quick.  I have just added the kitchen sink to this trade.  Also shorted BJS an oil servicer with 70% of it operations in the U.S because the United states is running out of oil, and oil should be peaking with Solar stocks taking the lead.  Dubai’s 15 billion dollar emission neutral city could be a sign oil has peaked.  OIH, GRMN, QQQQ, XLF, MSFT, MRK, XL also look like tempting shorts. 

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January 25, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment