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Week update of trading, COF, CFC, GOOG, BJS, PHM

I had a good week trading.  Not perfect; but, making some profits.

COF  I shorted about a week ago and took a small profit on a dip.  I have again reentered the position as the stock trades up today.  Taking a chance the stock will sell off.  Not too confident in the trade.  COF has a lower credit customer, and exposure to the subprime mortgage market.  MA is up after it beat earnings.  Much of the earning was from overseas growth, and a sale of a company.

CFC  I have a small long position.  Have been in and out a few times with no luck.  My timing has been off.  Just missing my entries, and jumping at higher prices, only to sell it at even.

GOOG has been one of my better trades timing wise.   I have been on the short side a few times, and managed to take profits as the stock sells off.   I think GOOG will trade lower after earnings; but, honestly GOOG scares me.  So I took the profits, and my re-enter over the next couple of days. I seem to have a decent feel for the movement of the stock or just getting lucky.  I think GOOG is overvalued. 

BJS  I entered short on the mostly American oil servicer becuase of decrease in Gulf activity, and left the trade around even because they said the stock seemed to have buyers, and was looking to move internationally.

PHM  I entered short a couple of times yesterday and took my profits on the open this morning.  The trade worked out well.  I just don’t know the housing industry well enough to keep pushing the trade. May reenter on the short side.  Considered going long becuase the company does appear to be one of the better situated homebuilders.  

January 31, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Shorted PHM

The Builder PHM reports after the bell and I expect the stock will trade lower.  CTX announced a horrible quarter last night, and I didn’t see any signs the rate cuts will fix the problems with forclosures up 79% this year.  Housing starts are way down, and inventories are at recent records around 10 months supply.  The FBI launched a criminal probe into the housing sector to examine inflated revenue by homebuilders taking on buyers that were not qualified.  

  Lending standards are tight, and not alot of buyers.  { PHM has cash and  some debt. The loss on the quarter was big.  The company took no losses on in mortgage business – have to do some investigating to see if that was just poor accounting or they don’t hold any liability on the mortagages they originate. More perplexed after the evening report. } PHM is headquartered in Michigan, and mortgage origination is a significant part of it’s operation. Stock is trading around $14 and has traded as low as $8.20 recently.

entertainment purposes only

January 30, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , | Leave a comment