Topstockblog

Blogging to add value. Sharing and discussing helpful websites, money, stocks, etc.

Looking To Get Back in the Stock Market?

Looking To Get Back in The Stock Market?   Be careful, and make a plan. 

 

Tough choice,  (November 26th 2008)   Market trends seem to be ever changing.  I have put a buy list together.  This is a good starting point.  Fundamentals change quickly.  My Buy list targets include MDR, MTW, CME, CHAIN, YGE, Yingle Solar has been beaten up with declining margins; but, supported by locked in government contracts.  CME has took a recent dive as the market has perged so many hedge fund investors that have left the market for one reason or another.  Chicago Mercantile Exchange has strong earnings, and has a great business hosting futures trading.   New government legislation bringing in new traders with a is essentially the market maker.  I am sure CME can make profitable margins, and should continue to focus on consolidating markets while creating a participant conscious market.  I took GOOG off my buy list because of declining margins and fear of declining numbers across industry players.  Last month Google was a favorite. Best hope some new model that better reconizes Google value to the world. Citi Bank looks to have a big upside potential and only $7 left until zero. I hope have a really good chance of making money over the long run.

You can make a fortune buying and selling at the extremes of this market  is a comment from the Kirk Report.   

(Ocotober 31, 2008) I am staying out of investing at least until the new year. Very excited about locking in my first year of tradig profits.  In addition to a recent removal of an adrenal gland in the wrong place makes me understand stock trading is not for myself.  I still like to watch, and reflect on the market developments.   The biggest thing I learned is to lower my expectation and limit how much I watch the market.  Be patient, and wait for stocks to move into your target buy or sell range.  Keep hard work, experience, and sense of humor on your side.  The market still has life to it. 
  Traders  moving the market when it goes higher, and over exuberance relentlessly leaves profit on the short side.  Investors are buying long term here and some are selling.  Green Span comments early in 2008 on U.S economy did put our economy exposed to high oil prices.  

(November 26th 2008)

(October 31st 2008 list)

GOOG – is gaining market share today, and offering value.  GOOG price multiple for years after 2010 are too low.  Goog seems to ad value and create opportunity.  Risks remain in slowing trends in advertising budgets.

CROX – look likes  dicey here;  over sold and has a large short position.  I don’t see Crox as a fad and earning are strong.  Crox is trading at a price you could make 10X your money in a few years if things go Crox’s way.  The quality absorbing plastic shoes are nice; the hard plastic shoes should be faded out.  Sure inventories may be high; but, that seems to be a strategy from beginning of the trend.  Sending piles of Crox slippers to retailers to boost consumer confidence in the style of Crox

MDR – looks like a takeover candidate, value play, strong infrastructure company with buyers

YGE –  Solar pricing should be strong with government assistance; but, depressive oil prices could be diffucult.   Reasonable priced growth stock.

COF – The recent injections of cash should boost earnings in 2009.  Further weakness in consumer credit debt is expected with the relief valve of the government cash COF may be a worthy investment.

entertainment purposes and education.

November 26, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Yahoo losing market share, and likely to continue to trade lower,

Yahoo has recently over played it’s hand in negotiations with rivals Google, and Microsoft.  Yahoo continues to under deliver content to users, and adept to market trends.  Everything Yahoo does; Google or someone else does better. In a shaky economy even Googles valuation at 15 times earning seems rational. Yahoo valued over 25 times earnings would be well served to sell at any price; sooner than later in my opinion to promote shaeholders interest.  I do continue to use Yahoo as my home page; Ironically.

entertainment, and education,

November 5, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Working to deal with differences; a theme of hope!

Many people around the world work in their own unique ways to solve problems.  Topstockblog wanted to share a blog that looks to solve difficult problems surrounding race, religion, and perception of others. Change of great degrees would require a great degree of understanding that can only be achieved by expanding communication with others.   Google possible is doing more than any other corporation in the world to connect the dots of evolution.  Topstockblog is positive on Google stock under $550 with 6-24 month time frame. Bloggers are filling in the holes Google needs a little help with. Typepad and WordPress allow hundreds of thousands of people to access the blogging world for little or no cost.
Check out article on race and religion . Looking at race as a theological problem. Good conversation; successful economies that last address all problems.

Found a cool site for Free Stock Photos to use on the internet provided a link is shared.

 

Entertainment and Education from the 3rd Prophet,

August 24, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas, Personal Growth, Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

MTG looks like a good short here

MTG a private mortgage insurer looks like an attractive short.  MTG has held up and I think is over priced and should go to zero.  The company should be worthless when all is said in done by normal accounting standards.  If competition is allowed, a recession takes hold, and accounting standards are enforced MTG could go to zero   I hope the government progresses in its fight with greed.  I do worry because they recently allowed banks to take assets/debts to off balance sheets to be able to continue to loan money other wise not meeting correct  reserve requirements.

entertainment purposes only 

February 5, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Shorted GOOG again

 (Exited Position Neutral on GOOG updated 2/5/08) GOOG is going to continue to trade lower in my opinion.   Selling will continue Monday as the stock is not as attractive to investors.  Many may sell off the stock because it missed expectations and MSFT is buying YHOO.  The Google team is talented and growing.  Take a look at the conference transcript link at the bottom from Seeking Alpha.

  BIDU is taking share in China and can take on searches in multiple languages.  BIDU is going after the search market in Japan. The valuation is way too high given the uncertainty of future profits.  Where ever there is profits competition is sure to rise up.   I don’t think its a stretch to say Microsoft entering the search market buying  YHOO will seriously slow growth expectations of Google. http://www.cnbc.com/id/22947600/site/14081545?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo   Nor is it a stretch that earning could deteriorate as a result of customers clicking less advertising as they become aware these ads are often low quality trying to sell something.  http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080201/google_ahead_of_the_bell.html?.v=1 I have been in and out of this stock short the past month, and putting my profits backs to work on the news that  MSFT entering the search race buying YHOO.   I think GOOG trades back to $450 sooner than later.    The conference call was mixed.  Google is working hard here is a link to the conference call. http://seekingalpha.com/article/62591-google-q4-2007-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo&page=3  Some interesting improvements in expanding different language searches, and a cost per sale option offered rather than a cost per click as a choice of options should boost ROI for advertisers.   Growth in the U.K was only 5% and 9% in the U.S.

entertainment purposes only

February 1, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Week update of trading, COF, CFC, GOOG, BJS, PHM

I had a good week trading.  Not perfect; but, making some profits.

COF  I shorted about a week ago and took a small profit on a dip.  I have again reentered the position as the stock trades up today.  Taking a chance the stock will sell off.  Not too confident in the trade.  COF has a lower credit customer, and exposure to the subprime mortgage market.  MA is up after it beat earnings.  Much of the earning was from overseas growth, and a sale of a company.

CFC  I have a small long position.  Have been in and out a few times with no luck.  My timing has been off.  Just missing my entries, and jumping at higher prices, only to sell it at even.

GOOG has been one of my better trades timing wise.   I have been on the short side a few times, and managed to take profits as the stock sells off.   I think GOOG will trade lower after earnings; but, honestly GOOG scares me.  So I took the profits, and my re-enter over the next couple of days. I seem to have a decent feel for the movement of the stock or just getting lucky.  I think GOOG is overvalued. 

BJS  I entered short on the mostly American oil servicer becuase of decrease in Gulf activity, and left the trade around even because they said the stock seemed to have buyers, and was looking to move internationally.

PHM  I entered short a couple of times yesterday and took my profits on the open this morning.  The trade worked out well.  I just don’t know the housing industry well enough to keep pushing the trade. May reenter on the short side.  Considered going long becuase the company does appear to be one of the better situated homebuilders.  

January 31, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market looks for value stocks

Market looks like it is trying to find places of good value, and avoiding places of high risk.   OIH is up on spreading disruptions in Africa, and the Middle east.  Possible up on the big snow storm in China.   Some places of value I see buying in are AAPL, CALM, CMED, GLD, GS, ISRG, POT, and OIH.  GOOG (Google)  Seems to be selling off with investors looking looking to avoid the downside risk, and lock in profits.    A bit tricky figuring out how much lower Google could trade.   I have been a bit uncomfortable trying to trade, and make good decisions.   I put some money into cash.   I excited my short in BJS.   Just have to keep working hard to find opportunity.

Entertainment purposes only

January 28, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market going to test the lows again, bearish GOOG

With some people just not understanding why things could be better with compromise I believe the stock market will crash.  The key to my hope and change to optimisism was the market appeared to be getting it that we are all in it together.   Bill Gates being progressive trying to help the impoverished.  The house introduced a bill to restate the governments responsibility to everyone.   It hasn’t been passed yet.  The can’t move forward if people think the goal is to try and get over on one another. 

The rate cut could make a difference if people have faith in the value of a lower interest rate to banks.  Not sure it will work yet.  Customers may not be as quick as they were last time to go for lower rates.  So the one week effect of rate cuts boosting stock prices as seen in the past may or may not show up.

The smart ass comments back in the mix from CNBC reporters about pure capitalism is the answer and always has been is very concerning.  The world again realizes these guys’ don’t get it and might just never get it.  Until they do get it.   I am staying bearish.  An additional rate cut should make things interesting; but, when used as a tool to get over on people can’t possible be the answer.

  I like a shorts position in GOOG especially http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080125/22841725.html?.v=1   I think Google has very specific to google problems pitching ads for mostly crap, and competition is coming quick.  I have just added the kitchen sink to this trade.  Also shorted BJS an oil servicer with 70% of it operations in the U.S because the United states is running out of oil, and oil should be peaking with Solar stocks taking the lead.  Dubai’s 15 billion dollar emission neutral city could be a sign oil has peaked.  OIH, GRMN, QQQQ, XLF, MSFT, MRK, XL also look like tempting shorts. 

Entertainment purposes only

January 25, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

No one can predict the future. Sell GOOG, Buy CFC

Update, 6/15/08

CFC seems to be bottoming with the buy out of BAC.  I swear BAC was just ducking personal loans it made and eliminating a tough competitor.   I little more bullish on the pair as the real price with capital injections, buy outs, and frauds on the loose.  Inflation actually arrived as war appears in the cards with Iran.   I love Russia is my last comment)  Russia believes it is on the verge of major technology development in the nano-technology group.

 Still like a short position in GOOG with a major new business product out from MSFT offering cash to devloopers, programers, and the like who want to make money.  At Dynamic Microsoft.

 

GOOG and BIDU are up nicely in after hours on Microsoft’s 30% growth in revenue.  I call it the Halo effect.  http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKWNAS774320080124?rpc=44   (updated 2/5/08  Neutral on GOOG under $500)

  I short sold GOOG and then added to my position after listening to a guy on CNBC about declining searches and users not clicking ads.   Not proud of that (Going to trade with the t.v off tomorrow, too easy to be manipulated)    Still want to be short going into earnings.    A lot of competition rising.  http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080125/22841725.html?.v=1  Wiclapedia is launching a search engine.  BIDU is taking 80% of search es in China and just announced its launch in the Japanese market.  Declining revenue per transaction around the world is not supportive of GOOG.    Looks like a good pop to short.  Not taking anything away from GOOG; but,  the stock may be over valued.   Bull market is making a case going forward with hope. 

I am long CFC   The corporation is a leader in the mortgage refinancing market and should rake in big profits with the increases in loan sizes to 125% of median home value in a community proposed by congress. BAC may a share price offer at $7.50 I believe.   Stock should be pretty steady; but, could pop higher when application numbers increase.  

entertainment purposes only

January 24, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment