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Stock Market review reflecting on past trading ideas, and set ups.

Republish + Update 6/16/2008.   Good stock post covering many stocks with good notes to reflect on for stock traders who focus on BA, GD, INTC, CRM, QQQQ, XL,  YGE, UA,

UA shorting idea worked well.  UA took a big dive this week as its growth expectations                   (Saturday January 19th,  2008)

  ran into a recession.   Trade was a Cramer idea from a few weeks ago, moved with the market trend, preannounced a tough first half next year.

INTC long trade ahead of earnings was a big mistake, entered $23.15 currently at $19 exited near open at $20.   An options straddle trade both long and short the immediate earnings options would have worked.  The stock rallied on IBM’s positive pre-earnings Monday.  I rationalized with INTC having 90% of it’s earnings over-sea’s the stocks current and future earnings would have exceeded expectations.  In hinde site I gather the wide and competive coverage on the INTC the positive effect of the weak dollar had already been priced in by analysts’.   Increased doubts going forward  due to possible economic slowing around the globe caused selling leading to a lower share price .

I shorted CRM last week, and again this week.   I shorted on a mention by Cramer about the stock possible being overpriced.  Cramer from Mad Money mentioned how he thought if the stock showed any signs of slowing at earnings the stock would get taken down big. The trade off his coments did not work the first time without perfect execution.  The market did offer a tiny window to execute the trade profitable.   I  then re-entered the trade Friday as the stock was selling off when the market opened higher.  I am hoping the street is ready to take this one down. Earning should be out sometime mid February.  (exited trade near even, Company sells hope and some people like the stock here  1/23/08)

I entered into a short trade on XL late Friday.  I am around even on the trade so far.  I saw a lot of selling going on in the stock and for good reasons.  Two directors stepped down last month, and  moodies placed some of its CPDO’s fund in junk status.  The fund is a complicated derivatives trade that allowed XL to offer insurance coverage on corporate debt staying top investment grade.  Junk status indicates to me that people are likely to not get paid.  I assume these people will be paid before common shareholders. A lot of selling has gone on these past two trading days. I hope I am not too late to the party.  (rate cut will help the company find balance 1/23/08 update)

YGE long trade I backed out of quickly because the stock just became weaker.  I did exit on a bounce that softened the blow.   I’m not sure if first quarter earnings are going to be up to par; but, sure long term the company is a big winner with top technology. I think the stock currnetly priced around $25 is a good for a long trade.  Timing of the entry is what I am trying to do well provided $24 and change on Friday may have been the best spot to get in. Only time will tell .     (long trade on at $23 hoping for a big rally updated 1/23/08 3pm)

 QQQQ appears to be stabilizing as the semiconductors are acting strong.  A long trade may be called for before another shorting opportunity arises here.    (wish I had more money I would buy some 1/23/08 3pm update)

Shorting war related stocks (LMT BA, NOC, GD, COL, ATK,) posted 12pm  Thursday 1/17 /08  ***The trade is up about 1-2%. Anyone in the previous week was up 5%-10%.  All but one of the stocks is below the 20,50, and 200 day moving averages.   I was hoping ATK was a good opportunity to short.  I found a few reasons on both sides; but staying bearish on the side line because the war stocks are below the 50 and 200 day moving average.  Stocks can trend for a while.  Istill think the United states is in a bearish cycle.  The decline of activity in Iraq could slow propects for future war equipment sales.   ATK was put on credit watch negative by Fitch recently.  A stock offering posible in the works stated http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080109/alliant_techsystems_ratings.html?.v=1.   debt levels are high to meet needs to buy an information systems and aerospace business unit for 1.31 billion dollars.  http://www.reuters.com/article/tnBasicIndustries-SP/idUSN0825031520080109    The stock is oversold short term.  The deal is flat on already strong earnings for 2008, and accretive in 2009 provided no unforseen cutbacks by the government. The company has state of the art technology.  Possible short term catylsts could be a market moves, breaking out of war, government cut backs, and or election promises.

I will update.

Entertainment Purposes only,

June 16, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Tricky market, shorted RTH on the pop higher

(Exited  trade because the rate cut will has a positive effect on earnings with the Refy business coming back.  HD and LOW look best in the group. Updated 1/23/08 3 pm )   Retailers trading up today.  Not sure why in this bear market; so I took the oppotunity to short the RTH index.  Not sure about the market direction from here.  I would guess we continue lower.  I am still in my short on CRM.  I exited the XL trade because the stock was already sold off, and buyers started to come in as they did with MBI scaring me out.  XL hit a low around 36 this morning.  May well have been a bottom as the Fed cutting rates should allow business’s and homeowners to find some ways to save money refinancing.  I wish I would have tooken the plunge long into YGE on the open around 21-22

entertainment purposes only

January 22, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Past thoughts on CRM

 

(January 18th, 2008 –  CRM is trading lower this morning, and I think it may be the beginning of a big move lower.   Friday  January 18th, 2008      10:30 am

  I must say thank you Cramer from Mad Money for the UA information last weak that helped me make the move to short the stock.  I lost a little shorting CRM last week another Mad Money stock from Cramer about possibility of sell off.  Today the market seems to be positioned to take the stock lower when the market is open.  CRM has very little earnings;not good in my opinion.  Growth expectations to high for slow or bear market based on principles of doing more with less.  The competition is coming from all angles.  It is just too easy to duplicate customer management software.   Good customer service, followed up witha letter, and a couple of phone calls over the next year is not worth billions of dollars.  Not saying that’s all CRM does; but, you get the point.   INTUjust entered the market with a simple customer support  service that customers can call to get help.   The article pointed out other competitors CNQR , INTU, OMTR,TLEO,SFSF,N,PAYX.  It also mentioned GOOG in the article not as a competitor; but, as a source of new business for the sector.  I can see GOOG is looking to grow to move into the sector with the low barriers to entry.  Google has good street cred as Cramer would say when it comes to delivering a friendly product that makes investors mullah. –Some adlib–

   Pricing pressure in customer management from advertising or lack ther of.   To other anticipated slow downs that can hurt. , business cutbacks,  and churn should all erode CRM’s future hopes.  At least that my opinion.   http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/17/saas-recession-concur-tech-enter-cx_sm_0118saas.html?partner=yahootix

            Entertainment and Education purposes,  Edit, Update, Cite Sources, and Help Others.

January 18, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

BUY’s on FXI, YGE, CMED, AAPL, GS,

When searching for stocks, and trading.   CNBC is always hyping one side of the story or the other (Bear Market) or (Bull Market).   It is easy to get confused.  So to watch or not to watch?   I like to watch; but, often wished I didn’t.  If you look hard enough you can find what you are looking for.  That doesn’t make it more true than the other side of the situation.  It is just too easy for CNBC to manipulate the story to expect them not to.  After all they represent a corporation dedicated to making money G.E.  I demand higher standards.  It’s not until average Joe is able to demand standards before we will get them.  I hope to do my part with my blog.

      I was a little disappointed when the friendly cute lady on the show was stopped from talking about problems in the market on Monday when it was rallying.  Confirmed my suspicions CNBC was actually against independent reporting of the news.   

I wonder how long ago China, Dubai, and India figured this out?  Too bad they might just be playing the same game.  Well with higher standards we can make sure we live in a better world.  Higher standards for drug companies, government oversight, honesty, quality of life for all, clean water tables, jobs, and a sustainable competively priced stock market are all achievable.

Any way I am going long the stock market at todays prices.  Top companies are buy out targets for over seas companies. I am taking a shot with the against the grain trade.  Getting aggressive ahead of option expirations this Friday.   I like FXI, YGE, CMED, AAPL, and GS here. 

I am working on an add on about fixing the American economy permantly.  Going to finish it up and send out the senators.  That could give the market reason to rally….lol           I’ll post it on the blog when I finish up.     I will be sending it along to some senators/my congressman and hope others will help.    

                                                for entertainment purposes only

January 16, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Freezing up, long INTC ahead of earnings

Wow!                   Monday  4 pm 1/14/2008

I sure have had a hard time pulling the trigger lately.  That feeling of freezing up has passed through me most days.  It happened a few times to my benefit last week.   I’m still carrying a lot more risk than appropriate.   I certainly don’t have the cure for freezing up (since admitted trading is not for me).  I remember reading if you are going to be successful you have to trade in the day-trading industry.  This may be true at times; but, the market has shed many hopes and jobs over it’s history.    Predefined trades were a mentioned remedy.  In my opinion it is helpful to set a stop loss up beforehand with a profit target (a set price to get out at).   My timing was rarely in touch with the market. Well that didn’t work out.  It appears as long as wall-street takes write off and has oversea’s exposure they may do very well.    Provided we can make friends in the world.   I say we work to improve the worlds poorest by giving them all chickens, lambs, and plant-able crops.  Might be better than using guns and bombs.   Went long INTC ahead of earnings with 90% of their revenue occurring over seas.

 I since pulled the trigger and moved into INTC ahead of their earning tomorrow.   INTC gets 90% of their earnings overseas and I think this will be a big plus in the earnings report and send a lot of money into the stock.  The trade did not work as the market looked forward INTC reality coordinated with the world slowdown.  Another lesson from the books everything goes down in a bear market; even the leaders.

Entertainment, and education.

January 14, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The stock market should be volatile monday

  1/12/08 Saturday

  Tough week for the bulls.  Most everyone lost a lot of money except the bears.  I am one of the bears; but, wish I cashed out before the close.  Verizon called me trying to get me to resign for another two years as the market closed.  I was a bit too greedy and didn’t pull the trigger earlier in the day and it may cost me.  

You are always guaranteed to lose some premium on an options contract at the open on Monday of an expiration week.  I wish I never answered that call by Verizon.  But, I guess I’ll have to wait till Monday to see what happens.   Verizon must of bought some customer management software like  CRM I am short.   Looks like the product might need some work.   

     I am sure there will be plenty of sellers going into monday with fear riding high for retirees, and the market will be none to accommodating to let them out on a large gap lower.    Could be hundred points  down or up on the open with all the volatility and associated heads games. 

Everyone seems to be looking for more cash and the market is trying to do the shakedown the best it knows how with a crash.  Must be that trade deficit catching up to us.  Disappointing the market is supporting drug, health care, and hmo’s.  I would think that the all seeing market could figure out socialized medicine is coming and in the entire nations best interest.

  Look to get in or out at your price on  Monday.  I am sure the market will go both directions.   The one thing I fear more than the banks explaining why they lost so much money.  Is the terrorist making an attack when they see weakness or us being dumb enough to attack Iran.  The world needs to work together.   I sure hope we get a president who invests heavily in solar and brings about a system of socialized medicine.   Its the only reasonable way forward. 

     Pure capitalism was created hundreds of years ago when people thought humans were heathens.   We had no idea how much one human could do or how great a country we could build.  Google is working on robots that can calculate every angle, and think more intelligently than humans while we surf the internet. I sure hope the heathens don’t blow it selling us out to the greedy.  Its no longer the rich we have to fear.  Its the greedy.  The world has enough resources so every hard working American can have a home, two kids, a picket fence, Mercedies, and a college education. 

   The Dow could crash a few thousand points according to one bear investor on t.v.  Maybe or maybe we trade higher this year.  Stranger things have happened.  I hope populist female president wins and sets the world straight.   Life’s to short and precious to be wasted on wars.    The world gets more crowded every day and respect has always been a sure way to stay out of trouble. 

 A lot of funds have set rules that have been triggered by all the weakness in share prices.  So that could provide grounds for going lower; but, the market likes to keep the investors guessing.  Jim Kramer from mad money was constructive about AAPL, AUY (Kramer’s best gold stock).  I like CMED SEED MOS and YGE for bullish trades or investments next week.  I like a short in any retailer.   I may short TIF,  BLK , or QQQQ for a trade.  I don’t see any light for TIF with the high end women already sporting all the diamonds they should rationally desire and the heathens still don’t have any money or lost it this past week.   Market makers are sure to be currently swimming in sells with all the selling these past few weeks; but,  I think they have been waiting for this and should have no problme taking the market where it needs to go wheather thats higher or lower.  

     No important indicators until Tuesday’s retail sales, retail sales ex auto’s, and PPI.  The inflation numbers are going to start moving higher or the balance sheet losses are going to pile up for retailers.  Kramer was making fun of sports retailer that said BGFV could no longer say the were the third largest sports retailer.  The environment does not seem friendly for passing along costs to the shoppers who are managing to make less transactions, and spending less each time.  Good job!  I imagine the balance sheet losses are going to pile up and inflation will stay tame. Lets hope not and the nation realizes they have a diverse region with the population equally distributed 2/3 of the 70 million that is under the age of 30.     Apple a big conference to showcase products on Monday in Europe that has always made the stock move higher in the past.  I think Apple should open much higher given the pull back and the growing number of world wide consumers that would like the new gadgets Apple creates.  Select software companies also appear to have some support  I notice that  some stock seem to be establishing a small base and others look to be heading out of business.  First I want to say it is a miracle that the banks could straighten their balance sheets out.  Society should demand they are as leanant with American tax payers.  Not the current administration, and not unless it is demanded.   Good luck getting the oblivious to notice anything going on concerning their children’s future.   I think the plan going forward is to support anything that America has patents behind and sell everything you can’t patent. Drugs stocks are definitely benefiting.  You would think no one told the investors most major drug companies have pipelines that are at best comparable to the drugs we already have on the market.  How many cholesterol, heart, depression, anxiety, or pain medication can society need.  How many CEO’s can we send to the moon if they would like.  Wake up wall-street!  Wake up America!  Over paying CEO’s is not capitalism its feudalism.  No body wants to live in a world where they don’t know if the money in the bank will be worth anything.   No wants a fixed rate triple AAA top rated fund that only returns half its investment.  

 Mrs. Clinton appears to be turning more populust to get the votes or maybe she is following her heart.   She proposed a 70 billion dollar stimulus package.  25 billion dollar tax rebate.  5 billion towards renewable energy.  That will put a dent in the 500 billion needed to put 90% of the world on solar energy in the next hundred years.  Now if she just gives back the $800,000 Michael Moore states she has received from the drug companies and health insurance companies in his movie Sicko ( A must see for all).  Maybe everyone can health care this century and doctors can still get a few hundred thousand a year in real currency.  Any way sure hope Hillary puts  a few accountants and economists back to work.   We need to reconcile our balance sheets of wealth in the country, eliminate the massive trade imbalance over time, and make some real friends.  Wake up America!!  

January 11, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Short Sold CRM, over priced stock in a weakening economy

Given the weaknees in the market, and a number of competors in the CRM sector this stock should tank.  I first took the idea from Jim Cramer’s Mad Money last night about  CRM stock being priced for perfect earnings.   I further found they had very little earnings.    I bought the Jan 55 option puts.  It can take a long time for big shareholders to get out in a stock with low volume.  The stock has crossed below the 50 day moving average which should bring more sellers into the picture.  Besides insiders never miss a day to sell the stock check out insider sales on yahoo finance.  Auto sales have taken place just about every day!!

Be careful, and don’t be long this market are my thoughts.   Bill Seidman the guy who fixed the savings and loan crisis in the 1980’s was just on CNBC saying the current situation has similarities to that of the 1980’s.  That should surely fuel the fire as more investors wake up to reality. With economy weaknening, defaults risings, credit tightening, and the stock market being a forward indicator I will continue to go in and out the market shorting the market.   

 Steve Leisman pointed out today that software stocks are vulnerable in 2008 with 30% of Ceo’s saying they would cut back on CRM software if they needed to cut back on spending due to weakness in the economy.

This article is for entertainment purposes only, not investment advice.  Do your own research and only make educated decisions when trading

Now you add in my brother in law works in the sector, and he said he was expecting a flat year for the sector.  Hardly a situation that a hi growth company can be overly successful in.

CRM could go up on the other hand because it has recently sold off, and is obviously the stock is over priced because investors pay for growth, and buyers/sellers set the current price.   Kramer did say the risks were 10 points up and 30 points down. That means it could go up 10 from here.   Always remember to look at the other side of the trade, and only take the best opportunities.  Rember this site is so you can learn from my mistakes as well as succeses. Good luck

January 10, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , | Leave a comment