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Looking To Get Back in the Stock Market?

Looking To Get Back in The Stock Market?   Be careful, and make a plan. 

 

Tough choice,  (November 26th 2008)   Market trends seem to be ever changing.  I have put a buy list together.  This is a good starting point.  Fundamentals change quickly.  My Buy list targets include MDR, MTW, CME, CHAIN, YGE, Yingle Solar has been beaten up with declining margins; but, supported by locked in government contracts.  CME has took a recent dive as the market has perged so many hedge fund investors that have left the market for one reason or another.  Chicago Mercantile Exchange has strong earnings, and has a great business hosting futures trading.   New government legislation bringing in new traders with a is essentially the market maker.  I am sure CME can make profitable margins, and should continue to focus on consolidating markets while creating a participant conscious market.  I took GOOG off my buy list because of declining margins and fear of declining numbers across industry players.  Last month Google was a favorite. Best hope some new model that better reconizes Google value to the world. Citi Bank looks to have a big upside potential and only $7 left until zero. I hope have a really good chance of making money over the long run.

You can make a fortune buying and selling at the extremes of this market  is a comment from the Kirk Report.   

(Ocotober 31, 2008) I am staying out of investing at least until the new year. Very excited about locking in my first year of tradig profits.  In addition to a recent removal of an adrenal gland in the wrong place makes me understand stock trading is not for myself.  I still like to watch, and reflect on the market developments.   The biggest thing I learned is to lower my expectation and limit how much I watch the market.  Be patient, and wait for stocks to move into your target buy or sell range.  Keep hard work, experience, and sense of humor on your side.  The market still has life to it. 
  Traders  moving the market when it goes higher, and over exuberance relentlessly leaves profit on the short side.  Investors are buying long term here and some are selling.  Green Span comments early in 2008 on U.S economy did put our economy exposed to high oil prices.  

(November 26th 2008)

(October 31st 2008 list)

GOOG – is gaining market share today, and offering value.  GOOG price multiple for years after 2010 are too low.  Goog seems to ad value and create opportunity.  Risks remain in slowing trends in advertising budgets.

CROX – look likes  dicey here;  over sold and has a large short position.  I don’t see Crox as a fad and earning are strong.  Crox is trading at a price you could make 10X your money in a few years if things go Crox’s way.  The quality absorbing plastic shoes are nice; the hard plastic shoes should be faded out.  Sure inventories may be high; but, that seems to be a strategy from beginning of the trend.  Sending piles of Crox slippers to retailers to boost consumer confidence in the style of Crox

MDR – looks like a takeover candidate, value play, strong infrastructure company with buyers

YGE –  Solar pricing should be strong with government assistance; but, depressive oil prices could be diffucult.   Reasonable priced growth stock.

COF – The recent injections of cash should boost earnings in 2009.  Further weakness in consumer credit debt is expected with the relief valve of the government cash COF may be a worthy investment.

entertainment purposes and education.

November 26, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Market trading up nicely, lol

The market has continued to sell off rallies as of late.  Is this time different?  Is the market a forward looking indicator seeing a brighter future? To dat the market has set lower lows…I think it’s a stock pickers market, and values of different assets need to be adjusted.    Lets see if the rally continues late in the day or fails.   I think stocks are over valued because of  buy outs, and people paying too much for earnings.   I thinnk sustainability and responsibility would be better served if stocks trade lower from here.  The system needs to make adjustments that are best taken care of in a recession.    Bond holders should get paid corporate assets sooner than latter if I am right.  The math has to make sense. Math can not be manipulated.

I am short COF (more than I should be) and long CFC, BA.    I added to my short as the market traded higher on COF.  The company is issuing new credit to grow credit base as people’s deliquencies increase and long term prospects are challenged.  This sure is a competive market with things being repriced every day.   Google after hours I hope will send the market lower; but, some people are buying the calls.  Too much violence in the world, and dishonesty for markets to trade higher in my opinion.   I am hoping foreign investors will sell.  Jobless claims reach post Katrina levels – http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/62506-jobless-claims-reach-post-katrina-levels.    The military is unprepared for a military strike, and their all standing in one place.  We need to start building military bases here, and bring security to all corners of the United States.  BA should do well in any environment.  The world will want lots of carbon fiber plaines  787’s scheduled deliveries starting in 2009.   Government needs to fill the populations needs beyond what business is capable of doing in Bill Gross’s mind.   http://seekingalpha.com/article/62070-bill-gross-stimulate-government-spending-not-consumption need to meet the needs of people around the world. Take a look how bad things could get http://www.populationinstitute.org/newsroom/population-news/?id=82   Government needs to get creative to fix this big debt, reduce environmental damage, and create a positive environment for people to live in.  I think voluntary estate planning to collect death benefits early, and not disruptively to reconcile debts would be very helpful.  Also, government taking small percentage stakes in large corporations to be able to reduce tax rates would also stimulate real growth.  Simple minimum standards of people are not being met around the world.  This makes it more diffucult for people to be comfortable.   Transaction numbers are decreasing.   

Kramer was overly bullish last night. http://madmoneyrecap.com/daily_recap_openingsegment_013008.htm   Cramer see this as bull market.  The two of us are very Bi-polar so we will have to see what he say’s tonight.   Not buying it.  Market said the market is going higher and this was a great buying opportunity.  Cramer talked about a lot of money moving out of bonds or choosing to invest large sums of cash in stocks.  He likes just about anything he was bearish on from his perspective.  I need to see some more hard work from congress , the senate, and the world before I change my opinion.  Too many problems out there for a recession not to be entered.  I don’t mind if I am wrong.  Interest rates have been cut twice to a Federal funds rate of 3%.  We have a chance to choose a new president, and signs of hope in Iraq.  Lets start talking about world goals, and peace.  Then take action, and stocks can be sustainable.  Sustainability is a better word choice for stable stock prices. 

Enertainment purposes only

January 31, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas | , , , | Leave a comment

Week update of trading, COF, CFC, GOOG, BJS, PHM

I had a good week trading.  Not perfect; but, making some profits.

COF  I shorted about a week ago and took a small profit on a dip.  I have again reentered the position as the stock trades up today.  Taking a chance the stock will sell off.  Not too confident in the trade.  COF has a lower credit customer, and exposure to the subprime mortgage market.  MA is up after it beat earnings.  Much of the earning was from overseas growth, and a sale of a company.

CFC  I have a small long position.  Have been in and out a few times with no luck.  My timing has been off.  Just missing my entries, and jumping at higher prices, only to sell it at even.

GOOG has been one of my better trades timing wise.   I have been on the short side a few times, and managed to take profits as the stock sells off.   I think GOOG will trade lower after earnings; but, honestly GOOG scares me.  So I took the profits, and my re-enter over the next couple of days. I seem to have a decent feel for the movement of the stock or just getting lucky.  I think GOOG is overvalued. 

BJS  I entered short on the mostly American oil servicer becuase of decrease in Gulf activity, and left the trade around even because they said the stock seemed to have buyers, and was looking to move internationally.

PHM  I entered short a couple of times yesterday and took my profits on the open this morning.  The trade worked out well.  I just don’t know the housing industry well enough to keep pushing the trade. May reenter on the short side.  Considered going long becuase the company does appear to be one of the better situated homebuilders.  

January 31, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , | Leave a comment