Topstockblog

Blogging to add value. Sharing and discussing helpful websites, money, stocks, etc.

FEED and VAR new stock picks

FEED – is a good growth story related to China.  Stock has been consolidating, and could move much higher.  Catchy name stock, China related growth, and consolidated stock price pattern all good reasons the stock to trade higher in my opinion.

VAR –  is the producer of a product for treating cancer with direct radiation beams. Incredible peace of technology for treating cancer.  Good results recently published.  Definitely makes this stock a candidate for take over bid at a higher price. Rumor of take over bid in media stated reason for stocks recent rise in price.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10484612/1/options-varian-calls-active-on-buyout-talk.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Entertainment, and educational purposes.

April 12, 2009 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions., Uncategorized | , , | Leave a comment

Cuban tries to fix Olympic Referees’ with kick to the face!

Good Job my friend from Cuba. Referees’ are not what the Olympics are about. An upset Martial Arts competitor was disqualified for taking to long to recover from illegal blow. Then kicked the referee in response to show the referee’s aggressive tactics.   Olympic officials’ have become a scar of disgrace on the 2008 Olympics.  Several boxing bouts were judged completely inaccurately.   The boxers were robbed of their glory as the matches became a bitching session for disgruntled announcers and coaches.

China’s promised to crack down on human rights activists among others is truly a shame.  A shame that will not be tolerated.   Concerned citizen’s will raise awareness and protect human rights.  

Entertainment and Education purposes from the 3rd Prophet

August 23, 2008 Posted by | Sporting Events | , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Jamaica proving to be the fastest humans; Topstockblog sponsors 2nd child through Christian’s Children’s Fund.

 

 !Congratulations Jamicai!  Beijing, China –
The Jamaica track team is having a very strong performance at the 2008 Summer Olympics.   Shelly Ann Fraser won the women’s gold medal followed by teammates dead heating for the silver.  She is beautiful.  check out joyous picture at Yahoo Sports.

 

Topstockblog sponsored a 2nd child through Christians Childrens fund.  Topstockblog is now the proud sponsor of a handsome and intelligent 7 year old young man from Northern Vietnam.  His community has a vast number of needs that often go unmet.  He lives in a community that follows Thai belief system.  To raise True ( American translation) out of poverty I have to help his whole community.   True goes to school almost every day in his community.  The school is very poor, and has no electricity or water flow.  Topstockblog is very excited about this opportunity to help True, and his community.   Looking forward to learning more about his life, and culture.  I sent his community $500 dollars to help meet needs.  I sent $24 a month paid for the next six months, and $200 for the community to use to buy goats for breeding.   Goats are a tough animal that adapt to many conditions, easy to raise, and sell quickly.  Topstockblog bought Sandra’s family some goats over the years, and this is helping Sandra’s family out greatly.
In my seven year experience with Christians Children’s fund it has been wonderful. Most positive experience of my life. My first child Sandra is ten years old. She lives near Mexico City, and currently enoying being a ten year old kid.  Sandra, and her family express their thanks in writing, and through good actions.  All leters are translated free of charge, and typed neatly with the original letter.  Accounting standards are hight at Christian’s Childrens Fund.  I recieve pictured documentation of all the supplies + holiday gifts I have bought Sandra over the years.  I am very proud to help her family live a better life.  Her parents work very hard, and make good choices.  Sandra wants to be a school teacher when she gets older.  I hope to share more in the future about my experience with my sponsored children with respect for their privacy. 

Entertainment, and Education purposes.  !Congratulations Jamaicai!

August 18, 2008 Posted by | Personal Growth, Serious Subjects that need public exposure, Sporting Events | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

CMED trade

CMED a Chinese Medical devicecorporation missed earnings in early March 2008, and caught many buyers long the stock.  The high multiple that had been placed on CMED stock was no longer valid because CMED had now disappointed the market missing earnings.  This created an opportunity to short sell CMED.  The trade worked and now CMED has entered into a period of stagnation.  Stocks can remain in stagnation for weeks, months, and even years.

 Earnings June 12, 2008 will likely give CMED direction.   The Motley Fool Community, and its publishers still have a very bullish view on CMED http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/mfool/SIG=12k0oq961/*http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2008/04/24/5-more-top-growth-stocks.aspx?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y&published=2008-04-24.  I know in the last earnings costs associated with events in China caused the CMED some problems.  I imagine the recent earth quakes, and generally tempid environment of China could cause another short fall in earnings. 

      CMED  no longer deserves a large earnings to price multiple because the medical device market is showing earnings are fragile, and can be missed.    Seperate financial trading results from ideals and preferences.  I am watching CMED as a stock I have blogged about and looking to see how it may move in the future. 

June 9, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Morals of markets would not matter, if they were not important to liquidity of markets

Markets are best served in a stable honest environment.  People are very willing to trade if they feel the market can be trusted.  With limited trust market trading volumes will decline.  Morals are the set of values that we try to use to guide our lives.    A further look allows us to see it also governs the lives’ of all people.  With bond markets drying up and the less fortunate being caught at a loss.   Moral hazards in the financial sector may cause this specific group to lose value going forward.     Derivatives of mortgages held by some investors called CDO’s (Derivatives  instruments for leverage and risk management purposes) and other securities  have not been kind to it’s holders.  Unless wall-street looks far enough into the future and can bring more honesty into their practices they will drink their own poisonous cool aide.  Warren Buffet commented it was nice to see those who have created poisonous cool-aide for others to drink have to drink some.  Insurance carries who have prospered from the derivative plays will likely suffer from a deterioration in trust slowing size, and number of transactions going forward.  BAC, MER, GS, BSC, and XL all have exposure to financial markets.

  On a positive note world leaders have gotten together to make a commitment to supporting market prices even if that means rigging them…lol  Leaders have made a commitment to move markets in an orderly fashion.   Economic stimulus packages have been passed, and rates of lending are being cut.    Solar corporations look they are expanding and finding needed capital to expand their contributions to the world. FSLR and YGE top solar stocks.

Entertainment purposes only;  help others ask questions later                          

February 15, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Lower taxes with government partnerships would make corporations much more competitive. Funded with tax credits.

 Given the size of these corporations and importance of operating with a more competitive tax structure.   As an economist I would suggest lowering tax rates from to as low as 15%.  This can be down with the government taking grant style permanent ownership in  corporations funded with tax credits for death taxes.  People could more effective plan their estates without having to make disruptive transactions of their assests before death while settling all or part of their tax burden.   A lower tax rate and partial ownership  would  be most appropriate to allow the government to reduce the tax rate on corporations. 

Private industry needs to become more competitive with lower tax rates and maintain an understanding of good morals.

Government passsive grant style ownership in corporations will help to keep markets competitive and  share risks with business in times of uncertainty.  The government could do this with any corporations and reduce stagnant money.  Greatly strengthen the balance sheet of the United States government.   Imbalances and risks need to be spread out more evenly between business, citizen’s and the government.  Government ownership clearly works to share risks with everyone.   Government involvement can guaranteed operation of businesses and rates of profit regardless if profits evaporates.   Sharing of risks stands to make society more insulated against changes in the world and esasier to make the most appropriate  decisions.  This should be done with the goal of maximizing benefits to society.  

   The influence of money is too strong and sometimes acts in appropriately.  Not creating the most efficient economy possible.   China will crush U.S citizens and corporations with  trade surplus’s and 15% tax rates.   Trade imbalances need to be eliminated over time and concern for everyone needs to be shared.    Tax rates need to be lower to encourage investment, competiveness and a debt free society.  No  more business as usual.  Honesty and hard work is the American way.   Technologies created by corporations should be profited from and shared robustly with the world to minimize waste and optimize economies of scale.             

entertainment purposes only,   

January 23, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

IBM strong, stock market out look evolving.

I figured the market would either start high and close low today.   Or start low and end lower.  well maybe,     Monday Jan 14th,  2008

Well that didn’t work out.  It appears as long as wall-street takes write off and has over sea’s exposure they may do very well.   Provided we can make friends in the world.   I say we work to improve the worlds poorest by giving them all chickens, lambs, and plant-able crops.  Might be better than using guns and bombs.   Went long INTC ahead of earnings with 90% of their revenue occurring over seas.

  I do see a few cases for the long side argument one being the market has corrected.   A second reason being emerging markets continue to grow strong.  U.S business’s are benefiting and will continue to benefit from a weak dollar to boost earnings results.  IBM beat the street estimate by 20 cents   $2.80 v.s $2.6 a  share this morning .  I heard an argument on CNBC a few weeks ago that humans will continue to race ahead until all the resources are gone.  Given the weakness in the dollar, and a new president it could be a good year for the stock market.  Value entries are being talked about on CNBC this morning.  A few blogs have also made value entry comments.  I feel more neutral on the markets direction from here. .  I like AAPL, CALM, DRYS, YGE, AUY, and CMED today on the long side.  

I am still short and feeling some pain watching the ticker this morning.  Just happy I have some profits to lose.     I am going to stay short this morning and most of the week if the top is on the open this morning.  If I see the market opens up 100 and goes higher then I will start to worry more….lol     I still can’t find any reasons why the RTH doesn’t go lower.  What could possible save the retailers.   Weakness could be ahead in the markets.   The bank of England has not being able to raise cash to save Black Rock bank, and Goldman Sachs is recommending the move to nationalization of the bank.  I heard talk on CNBC of Citi bank not being able to get the money it needs from China and may to have to lay off another 20,000 jobs.  The economic theory there goes why would you save your competition.  That was the argument used by an analyst in reponse to Warren Buffet’s Berkshire investing in MBI and or other mortgage insurers in trouble.  More profitable to let your competition get weaker.     We did turn off our economy six months in front of China’s Olympics, Bejing 2008! (or at least I thought we did)  England is running an estimated 3% deficit, and talked of being in Afghanistan for decades yesterday.  I sure bet the U.S is sorry for not supporting a Soviet take over in the 1980’s of Afghanistan.    I think the pop on the open is good to help the markets re-balance.  

                                Good luck!

article for entertainment purposes only.

January 14, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Staying Short CRM, and QQQQ. Most stocks look good to short here

Given the weaknees in the market, and a number of competors in the CRM (customer management software) sector this stock should tank.  I first took the idea from Jim Cramer’s Mad Money last night about  CRM stock being priced to achieve perfect earnings given they have very little earning and a stoc multiple in the 100’s.     I bought the Jan 55 option puts.  It can take a long time for big shareholders to get out in a stock and the stock has been selling off as the market trends lower.   The stock has crossed below the 50 day moving average which should bring more sellers into the picture.  Besides insiders never miss a day to sell the stock.  Check out insider sales on yahoo finance.  Automatic sales take place just about every day according to yahoo’s stats.  
 The market maker does appear to be accumulating  alot of shares and supporting the price.   
On the QQQQ trade I can’t see any reason why the index won’t go lower.   The only thing holdnig up the market here is the drug index which is the worst index of them all long term.   With so many drugs going off patten and the number of available drugs can’t support these multipes.  Personally I and about four billion people in the world are in support of socialized medicine the stocks have a large downside risk if things go any other direction than perfect adding to QQQQ’s loss.   The growth prospects in the U.S are shot.  Bulls only hope in my opinion is that Wallstreet begins valuing sustainability and rationalizes I higher multiple accordingly.  After all a company worth should be based on the long term rate of return.  Rather than the growth rate until the next blow up.  The market is resilent and the guys on wallstreet are the brightest.  I’m staying with the down trend and QQQQ is a pretty safe way to do that.   QID is a leveraged index to play stocks short for those with no other options to get short stocks.   I hope to post a few more leveraged funds for those that want to be a touch aggressive.
     Bill Seidman the man who fixed the savings and loan crisis in the 1980’s was just on CNBC saying the current situation has similarities to that of the 1980’s.  That should surely fuel the fire as more investors wake up to reality of a full blown recession.  Defaults  should keep rising, credit tightening, and the stock market being a forward looking indicator heading lower.  I will continue to go in and out the market shorting the market.    Steve Leisman pointed out today that software stocks are vulnerable in 2008 with 30% of Ceo’s saying they would cut back on CRM software if they needed to cut back on spending due to weakness in the economy.This article is for entertainment purposes only, not investment advice.  Do your own research and only make educated decisions when trading

Now you add in my brother in law works in the sector, and he said he was expecting a flat year for the sector.  Hardly a situation that a hi growth company can be overly successful in.

CRM could go up on the other hand because it has recently sold off, and is obviously the stock is over priced because investors pay for growth, and buyers/sellers set the current price.   Kramer did say the risks were 10 points up and 30 points down. That means it could go up 10 from here.   Always remember to look at the other side of the trade, and only take the best opportunities.  Rember this site is so you can learn from my mistakes as well as succeses. Good luck

January 11, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Economic policy to keep America strong in the face of a bear market

 Economic policy to keep America strong in the face of a bear market

The government needs to cut taxes, liabilities, and debt to stay competitive in the global marketplace. To pay for these tax cuts the government should offer to settle estate taxes early for those over the age of 65.  Also, possibly negotiate the settlement of retirement benefits to reduce estate taxes owed at death for the many retirees that don’t need the money. 

The rate of profit a business is expected to return in the future declines because competition around the world competes at higher capabilities.   The government currently carries idiotic large debt loads because of the inappropriate influence of money. The budget needs to balanced and idle money needs to be taken out of the market. Many municipalities and local governments will default at some point in the future with higher borrowing costs, high debt loads, and stagnation. 

The government should work to reduce medical payments paid out through government programs.  This can be done in part by expanding the number of specialized doctors around the country. To meet the growing demands our country has for medical care and ensure competition is competitive.

Greatly expanding the number of doctors in training admitted to doctoral programs is essential to making this happen.  The supply of specialized doctors has been limited by Universities whom I speculate have received large contributions from alumni to unconscionable fail to expand the number of doctoral training programs needed to keep pricing competitive, and pass along the gains our society has made to be able to produce highly educated citizens. Government intervention in any area that money inappropriately influences is necessary and key to a moral and efficient society.

Education is the most cost effective way to deal with all the world’s problems and is not something to be feared.  Education programs should be spread and kept affordable to help society reach our potential in life.

 As our capitalist society matures, private citizens have stored up large amounts of wealth, governments have high levels of debt/obligations, and much of the infrastructure we need going forward is already built. As a result, rates of profit will be lower, and the government needs to intervene to ensure moral as well as proper financial decisions are made.

The government can take passive ownership in large corporation or in real estate to settle estate taxes, and allow citizens to maintain control of the properties that they have obtained over their life time. The government can help facilitate business, and greatly reduce the costs of businesses to operate.

Reducing the money supply will take stagnant money out of the economy, and help society adapt to a more competitive environment. The economy can operate with lower margins as society becomes more efficient; additionally, continuing to add value to society.

The reasons why we need to take these actions 

  China is moving deliberately, appropriately, and swiftly to achieve advantage over the United States.   Much of the nation’s problems can be eliminated with the early settlement of retirement benefits, and the settlement of death taxes.   Restoring our competitive place in the global market and benefiting everyone.  The country would be aligning our national interests with all other nations in particular the Chinese, and greatly reducing the risk and or inappropriate reliance on wars in the future.  Trade balance between competitive nations’ are supposed to be equal. In economic theory a nation is supposed to export as much as it imports from a competitive nation.  Over time with the right policies we can find this balance with all nations as we should have been doing so in the past.  It is pure garbage that is our nation’s interest to keep operating with trade imbalances.  

    The Chinese government has recently moved from a communist society to one that is a 50/50 ownership between society and the private citizens.  I assume they chose the 50/50 rate to give both maximum flexibility and to target the best estimate of long run improvement in efficiency over a life time.   China is currently using a 15% rate of taxation on many of its enterprises because they own half of the large corporations. So they achieve the same tax revenue stream as the United States from businesses’ with one third of the taxation rate. This gives Chinese business’s a huge long term advantage that will compound over time. This could result in disaster for our nation if we are unable to achieve a comparable business model.

China has a lot of idle money in United States government securities compounding interest over time, and extending the competitive advantage of China to compete in the world economy.  We must negotiate with China and find compromise. We need to begin to settle these debts for assets reclaimed in the early retirement of estate taxes and become close allies of China working toward the common good.  We have lots of technology to share that will greatly benefit both societies in the long term.

  

We have made huge advances in solar technology, and salt water was recently made drinkable with the use of a special ray of light in a university lab. We need to move rapidly towards making solar technology and all energy saving a bigger piece of the solution.  Finding ways to share these technologies on our terms with other nations can be very helpful in promoting common welfare, economic growth, and sustainability.

A Capitalist model working together with a communist model has the greatest benefit for everyone.   Both capitalism and communism can work together to add the most value to society with the least risk.  A pure Capitalism system pits those with money against those without money looking for no common ground. A pure Communist system fails to account for individual needs and abilities. Pure capitalism produces violent economic cycles with all classes suffering. Pure Communism produces a less productive society.  Money also becomes isolated in pure Capitalism and leads humans to make inappropriate choices. You see this played out in our society as special interests have inappropriate influence over government officials. Causing politicians to neglect the best interests of the people they represent.  In the past, our nation has resisted renewable energy such as the sun, in favor of importing large amounts of oil overseas and causing unnecessary environmental damage, so a small group of people could get unbelievably rich. 

Many American corporations and citizens currently have large buying power, and will lose those benefits without appropriate intervention.    The cutting of taxes, reduction of current/future liabilities, and retaining of purchase power by our nation is in the entire countries best interest. As well as the world we live in. 

 United States runs a dangerous risk of ruining its credit rating at some point in the future, and can be particularly damaging considering will become more scarce in the future.  Sovereign wealth funds can become more dangerous if we become very weak.  Contrary to what you may have been told about a recent purchase of 7% of Citi group by a foreign sovereign wealth fund is it was made in preferred stock. If the company fails, the sovereign fund will own a much higher percentage than when it originally was reported to have taken a stake in Citi Group Corporation.  Keep in mind they paid cash, and if they become more aggressive they could take control of so much more of the world’s technology.  If we try to limit this investment we run the risk of being cut off of natural resources.  China has recently made a purchase into Black Stone group a corporation that specializes in corporate take over’s. This makes it very clear why trade balances are necessary to be balanced over time.  Isolation is not the solution.  United States corporations receive much of their revenue from foreign nations.  Finding common ground is the solution.

 Our dollar has stood as the world’s storage of wealth because of faith our government could always figure out the answer to any problem.  Well that view is being challenged in the mind of everyone because of poor choices, and arrogance.   The world has limited resources available and we need to be mindful of this.

  As the dollar weakens in a pure capitalist environment it would be in the world’s best interest to exploit this and take advantage of opportunity for their benefit.  We need to switch to a government policy model that seeks sustainability and quality of life for all to bring the world together.

 Humans breed like rats in conditions of poverty and that is arguable the most important reason it is in our best interest to make sure everyone in the world has a good quality of life.   Deals can and need to be made to individuals or nations to control the populations as seen in China.  Are poorest citizens having the most the children and our government subsidizes the problem with payments.  The problem grows and gets worse over time.  Instead we should pay the poorest not to have children and share technology in exchange.  The world can live happily ever after with proper planning and appropriate actions as our world become more advanced.

Conclusion

Taking responsibility with these aggressive actions will help us meet the challenges of the future.  By using the most responsible way to handle our debts, and deal with predictable problems that could arise from the financial burden of our debt we will greatly benefit. 

Corporations could better focus on meeting societies’ needs. All would benefit from the increased efficiencies of scale and sustainability.  It’s a simple change switching from that of a growth dominated society to one of sustainability.  The later should receive a higher valuation in the world market.   The reduction of government debt, entitlement payments, and government ownership is in the best interest of everyone.    

Handling these sensitive issues quickly would be prudent to show Americas’ ability to respond quickly to changing information.  This legislation can be spread broadly to individual states, and the nation.   Please share this idea to gain the support of all and find the best solution. The quality of life for the nation, the environment, and the world’s population depends on good judgment.  Please investigate my ideas, and pass legislation early to the benefit of all.  Any one in elected office can win any election with good policy judgment!

  

Resources

  

Trend Following by Michael Covel

2006 by Pearson Education, Inc.

Contradictions of Capitalism & an introduction to Marxist Economics by Lenny                        Flank      Red and Black pub. Aug 1, 2007 

                                            

  

Education

Excelsior College   Bachelors degree in the liberal arts of science with a major in economics and a minor in education

January 10, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Two stocks to buy in today’s market CMED and YGE

CMED and YGE are two top growth Chinese stocks that will benefit from the weak dollar and strong yuan. 

CMED is my top pick for the year a medical equipment company with incredible growth opportunities ahead of it.  The company is growing revenues at over 80% a year with high margin businesses, and recurring revenue. China’s medical care industry is just in its infancy.  Management is proving to be brilliant adding and acquiring new businesses like the closing today on Beijing Bio-Ekon Biotechnology, a fast-growing ECLIA diagnostic equipment for use in all kinds of medical problems including diabetes player in China. The Acquisition is expected to strengthen the Company’s leading position in advanced  invitro diagnostics (IVD) market in China. The Company expects the Acquisition to immediately add to both revenues and non gap net income in the current quarter.

YGE is a top of the line solar growth stock forcasing growth in revenues and earnings at around 100% this year. The companies has analyst targets as hi as $196 over six times the current price.. YGE is gaining the attention of investors, and has pulled back to a good entry point with the sell off in the market.

January 9, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , | 1 Comment