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Looking To Get Back in the Stock Market?

Looking To Get Back in The Stock Market?   Be careful, and make a plan. 

 

Tough choice,  (November 26th 2008)   Market trends seem to be ever changing.  I have put a buy list together.  This is a good starting point.  Fundamentals change quickly.  My Buy list targets include MDR, MTW, CME, CHAIN, YGE, Yingle Solar has been beaten up with declining margins; but, supported by locked in government contracts.  CME has took a recent dive as the market has perged so many hedge fund investors that have left the market for one reason or another.  Chicago Mercantile Exchange has strong earnings, and has a great business hosting futures trading.   New government legislation bringing in new traders with a is essentially the market maker.  I am sure CME can make profitable margins, and should continue to focus on consolidating markets while creating a participant conscious market.  I took GOOG off my buy list because of declining margins and fear of declining numbers across industry players.  Last month Google was a favorite. Best hope some new model that better reconizes Google value to the world. Citi Bank looks to have a big upside potential and only $7 left until zero. I hope have a really good chance of making money over the long run.

You can make a fortune buying and selling at the extremes of this market  is a comment from the Kirk Report.   

(Ocotober 31, 2008) I am staying out of investing at least until the new year. Very excited about locking in my first year of tradig profits.  In addition to a recent removal of an adrenal gland in the wrong place makes me understand stock trading is not for myself.  I still like to watch, and reflect on the market developments.   The biggest thing I learned is to lower my expectation and limit how much I watch the market.  Be patient, and wait for stocks to move into your target buy or sell range.  Keep hard work, experience, and sense of humor on your side.  The market still has life to it. 
  Traders  moving the market when it goes higher, and over exuberance relentlessly leaves profit on the short side.  Investors are buying long term here and some are selling.  Green Span comments early in 2008 on U.S economy did put our economy exposed to high oil prices.  

(November 26th 2008)

(October 31st 2008 list)

GOOG – is gaining market share today, and offering value.  GOOG price multiple for years after 2010 are too low.  Goog seems to ad value and create opportunity.  Risks remain in slowing trends in advertising budgets.

CROX – look likes  dicey here;  over sold and has a large short position.  I don’t see Crox as a fad and earning are strong.  Crox is trading at a price you could make 10X your money in a few years if things go Crox’s way.  The quality absorbing plastic shoes are nice; the hard plastic shoes should be faded out.  Sure inventories may be high; but, that seems to be a strategy from beginning of the trend.  Sending piles of Crox slippers to retailers to boost consumer confidence in the style of Crox

MDR – looks like a takeover candidate, value play, strong infrastructure company with buyers

YGE –  Solar pricing should be strong with government assistance; but, depressive oil prices could be diffucult.   Reasonable priced growth stock.

COF – The recent injections of cash should boost earnings in 2009.  Further weakness in consumer credit debt is expected with the relief valve of the government cash COF may be a worthy investment.

entertainment purposes and education.

November 26, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Stock Market review reflecting on past trading ideas, and set ups.

Republish + Update 6/16/2008.   Good stock post covering many stocks with good notes to reflect on for stock traders who focus on BA, GD, INTC, CRM, QQQQ, XL,  YGE, UA,

UA shorting idea worked well.  UA took a big dive this week as its growth expectations                   (Saturday January 19th,  2008)

  ran into a recession.   Trade was a Cramer idea from a few weeks ago, moved with the market trend, preannounced a tough first half next year.

INTC long trade ahead of earnings was a big mistake, entered $23.15 currently at $19 exited near open at $20.   An options straddle trade both long and short the immediate earnings options would have worked.  The stock rallied on IBM’s positive pre-earnings Monday.  I rationalized with INTC having 90% of it’s earnings over-sea’s the stocks current and future earnings would have exceeded expectations.  In hinde site I gather the wide and competive coverage on the INTC the positive effect of the weak dollar had already been priced in by analysts’.   Increased doubts going forward  due to possible economic slowing around the globe caused selling leading to a lower share price .

I shorted CRM last week, and again this week.   I shorted on a mention by Cramer about the stock possible being overpriced.  Cramer from Mad Money mentioned how he thought if the stock showed any signs of slowing at earnings the stock would get taken down big. The trade off his coments did not work the first time without perfect execution.  The market did offer a tiny window to execute the trade profitable.   I  then re-entered the trade Friday as the stock was selling off when the market opened higher.  I am hoping the street is ready to take this one down. Earning should be out sometime mid February.  (exited trade near even, Company sells hope and some people like the stock here  1/23/08)

I entered into a short trade on XL late Friday.  I am around even on the trade so far.  I saw a lot of selling going on in the stock and for good reasons.  Two directors stepped down last month, and  moodies placed some of its CPDO’s fund in junk status.  The fund is a complicated derivatives trade that allowed XL to offer insurance coverage on corporate debt staying top investment grade.  Junk status indicates to me that people are likely to not get paid.  I assume these people will be paid before common shareholders. A lot of selling has gone on these past two trading days. I hope I am not too late to the party.  (rate cut will help the company find balance 1/23/08 update)

YGE long trade I backed out of quickly because the stock just became weaker.  I did exit on a bounce that softened the blow.   I’m not sure if first quarter earnings are going to be up to par; but, sure long term the company is a big winner with top technology. I think the stock currnetly priced around $25 is a good for a long trade.  Timing of the entry is what I am trying to do well provided $24 and change on Friday may have been the best spot to get in. Only time will tell .     (long trade on at $23 hoping for a big rally updated 1/23/08 3pm)

 QQQQ appears to be stabilizing as the semiconductors are acting strong.  A long trade may be called for before another shorting opportunity arises here.    (wish I had more money I would buy some 1/23/08 3pm update)

Shorting war related stocks (LMT BA, NOC, GD, COL, ATK,) posted 12pm  Thursday 1/17 /08  ***The trade is up about 1-2%. Anyone in the previous week was up 5%-10%.  All but one of the stocks is below the 20,50, and 200 day moving averages.   I was hoping ATK was a good opportunity to short.  I found a few reasons on both sides; but staying bearish on the side line because the war stocks are below the 50 and 200 day moving average.  Stocks can trend for a while.  Istill think the United states is in a bearish cycle.  The decline of activity in Iraq could slow propects for future war equipment sales.   ATK was put on credit watch negative by Fitch recently.  A stock offering posible in the works stated http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080109/alliant_techsystems_ratings.html?.v=1.   debt levels are high to meet needs to buy an information systems and aerospace business unit for 1.31 billion dollars.  http://www.reuters.com/article/tnBasicIndustries-SP/idUSN0825031520080109    The stock is oversold short term.  The deal is flat on already strong earnings for 2008, and accretive in 2009 provided no unforseen cutbacks by the government. The company has state of the art technology.  Possible short term catylsts could be a market moves, breaking out of war, government cut backs, and or election promises.

I will update.

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June 16, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

RTH looks like a good short at the higher end of it’s trading range

Update 6/13/08:  The RTH has risen pretty quickly along with most of the stock market.  I would like to go short Monday 6/15/2008.   QQQQ seems to be my favorite short sale position.   RTH; no real opinion!

(5/29/2008) RTHindex looks like a great short on the bounce higher.  The retailers look to be in trouble with consumers tapped out.  The RTH has alot of stability being an index and offering a small dividend. WMT being the largest stock in the index. RTH appears to be range bound and can be sold when over bought, and bought when over sold
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080207/bonds.html?.v=2

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June 13, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Mad Money Cramer education how to trade.

Mad Money’s Jim Cramer is a valueable educator hard at work to help the average investor and shed light on the investing world.  With out sun light nothing grows or prospers.   I really liked  some tips he gave on how to spot a bottom in the market.  Including  ocilator technical over sold indicater above 5 being an important measure in marking a bottom or the  VIX going over or at 30.” This is the point he believes a good investor should be sticking his toe in the water.  He said to “Buy  something at this point in a sell off  in-spite of the pain.  Play the cycle.  People are playing games with emotions.  Be careful. 

With the bottom set in february possible the stock market cycle is bullish.  I bought CFC amd sold it with a small profit.   I thought Google was a short sale; but, Google is a bull market stock going higher.  I would put a $725 Target off the top of my head on Google stock within 12 months.  Larry Kudlow of CNBC should be careful of accusing George Soroes and Bill Gates of being anti Capitalism.

http://www.thestreet.com/video/index.html?clipId=10400031&channel=Cramer+On+Demand&cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=&cm_ite=#1380790674

 

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April 24, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The need to be diversified by Jim Cramer

Being diversified is an absolute must by Cramer on CNBC Mad Money.  As a person that has violated this rule because it is hard not to chase a large return.   To not put all your money in one basket is hard to do.  By diversifying we limit our upside and downside.  This is risk management.  It keeps us in the game.  Cramer advises owning at least five top stocks in five different sectors to ensure diversification.  You have to protect yourself from yourself.  You will lose money if you break your rules.   We are human and not perfect so we need rules.  Frailty of humanity makes us go against stocks.  We need to not be arrogant.    Cramer also advised against ever investing in stock tips because it is either  bad information or could be illegal insider information.    I have watched Cramer for a couple of years.  If you just use a filter to listen to Cramer it is a great show.  Cramer also advises investing incrementally. 

(Friday February 26th update,  any small website is going to contain incomplete information, often biased.   In my opionion any t.v. channel is also going to have bias and agenda as Cramer would.  The world can make mistakes. )

  Entertainment purposes only.  Help others, ask questions later.

February 20, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

What direction will the world take? Lifes economics

 Is the glass half full or half empty?  Hard questions are important to ask each other.   “Have no fear for no one can stop the time.” Bob Marley Redemption songs.   “People can go in any direction they want to.”  Topstockblog. 

Corporations  may have been created to make profits.  They do deliver enormous benefits to the world.  A number of values and standards have been accounted for as society has demanded higher standards for people and the environment.   Do we have to continue to look at places we can go wrong? Yes.  Should we just let corporations make the rules? No.  History tells us that great mistakes can be made with out very careful consideration of our actions and those of others.  We should look for warely  for potential Trojan horses.   The war in Iraq led by George Bush Junior and religious fanatics have produced a hell on earth for so many people living in fear and losing their lives.  Society can fix and best manage drawbacks with careful communication, trading opportuities, and consideration.   Delivering the maximum benefit of services to people when they add value.   People are best served when compensated for looking to the future.  We have some compensations in place.  We can add further incentives to decrease U.S consumption and help future generations of people. Taxes, Health care and banking are places society can lower costs and boost long term functioning.   Citizens who choose to consume less could be compensated with  tax relief, debt relief, and health care.  Is this why checks of welfare were made to poor people in the United States to reduce consumption while maintaining basic needs of people?  Welfare became seen and abused by the masses.  People in the United States now have children for money they will recieve.  We should motivate the least fortunate to not have children rather have more children worstening the effects on society.   Further communication and understanding of purpose on earth is needed to share benefits most appropriately.   We can reduce consumption by increases in technology, and a public with higher moral standards of heaven on earth.    We currently save money in banks, physical property, and intellectual property.  We can boost benefits for increases in education to meet challenges of the future and present most appropriately.   Some save massive amounts and yet others consume massive amounts with no concern for others.  Are they really that much better than the those that save or the less fortunate?  I think corporations could adopt more regulations.  Their will always be winners in losers in life.  It is a perception or reality of force that leads us to reality.  We should value what we leave for future generations.  Corporations can not make endless profits in a confined space with limited resources available?   The economy is best served with a long term out look trying to account for draw backs.   We can build an economic system that best meets peoples needs.   We have had a strongest functioning economy defined by any period of time.  The world needs to work closely together to share common ground.  We need to communicate thoroughly and repeatedily to meet the standards of the world while looking to protecting the planet for the future. Many competing economic systems have been used thought out the history of man.  Many of them with a large warring component.  We want to stay away from war and protect all people from violence.   We can offer minimum standards to the world.  Millions of people in the world live in a growing dangerous world.   This situation is best managed with considerable thought, and much communication.  Shared concern.    We can manage the number of people on the earth and share benefits with rules better than the current system.  I estimate the world can sustain around 2 billion people if all people received minimum standards we have grown accustomed to in the United State.  We should compensate those who choose not to have children to protect the future.  Growing together and communication can greatly reduce violence.    If   humans can go in so many different directions.  Then why are so few of them the right? 

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February 19, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bearish BAC, CRM, TGT, RIMM, NYX,

I am bearish on the out look of the market and being so makes me look for good canidates to short. These are the one I think will go lower.  Again the rally faded today, just icing on a bad cake.

CRM – customer management software — too low of barriers of entry for profits to grow and maintain short and long term

BAC- heavily leveraged to consumer debt,  not being able to find new customers qualified for loans and loan defaults could really crush the banking business

TGT-  highly leveraged to consumer spending and credit, has issued credit to customers to grow sales – reality of lending to people who can’t afford to shop in your store may set in soon.

RIMM-  has patent problems with motorola, three networks shut downs in the last year, lots of competition in the market should hurt margins

NYX – market trading should slow as markets slows with confidence and investors losing money in a stagnant economy.

Entertainment purposes only; help other ask questions later

February 19, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Morals of markets would not matter, if they were not important to liquidity of markets

Markets are best served in a stable honest environment.  People are very willing to trade if they feel the market can be trusted.  With limited trust market trading volumes will decline.  Morals are the set of values that we try to use to guide our lives.    A further look allows us to see it also governs the lives’ of all people.  With bond markets drying up and the less fortunate being caught at a loss.   Moral hazards in the financial sector may cause this specific group to lose value going forward.     Derivatives of mortgages held by some investors called CDO’s (Derivatives  instruments for leverage and risk management purposes) and other securities  have not been kind to it’s holders.  Unless wall-street looks far enough into the future and can bring more honesty into their practices they will drink their own poisonous cool aide.  Warren Buffet commented it was nice to see those who have created poisonous cool-aide for others to drink have to drink some.  Insurance carries who have prospered from the derivative plays will likely suffer from a deterioration in trust slowing size, and number of transactions going forward.  BAC, MER, GS, BSC, and XL all have exposure to financial markets.

  On a positive note world leaders have gotten together to make a commitment to supporting market prices even if that means rigging them…lol  Leaders have made a commitment to move markets in an orderly fashion.   Economic stimulus packages have been passed, and rates of lending are being cut.    Solar corporations look they are expanding and finding needed capital to expand their contributions to the world. FSLR and YGE top solar stocks.

Entertainment purposes only;  help others ask questions later                          

February 15, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

UNH health care.

(Update 7/23/08 ) – UNH has weathered most of the fruad charges against it, and continues to pay out as little as possible to health care members. Profit margins should be boosted by greed, and inappropriate influence of health care corporations into elections. Society is not speaking up, and I imagine UNH as a possible long trade if congress people do not demand better coverage, and higher reimbursement rates. Bullish as a trade on any weakness further weakness. I would prefer to be long into UNH near term earnings anouncements. ) end update —
( 02/25/2008) UNH has systematically defrauded it customers and the ultimatley the people of the United States.  UNH should not be allowed to focus on isolated customers to over charge them. New York Attorney general goes after UNH after six month probe.  http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b889EB25E-F08F-49AC-AA67-1465E44B9300%  7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo    

   Proper utlization of human resources meaning active education and cooperation combined with technology and infrastructure in place without abusive elements would deliver the most efficient medical treatment care system. 

   Michael Moore has done a film on his thoughts about the inappropriate profiteering health insurance corporations carry out. In my opinion they have abused their trust when patient recieved care outside of the network or avoided treatment becuase of fear of costs.   Society can provide honest available medical care, and can work with other nations to share benefits.   I was recently reading some bible passages online trying to learn more about the contents.   I take from all the births and human relations in the book over generations we all have shared interest past and future.  Gods is with all of us and in everything. 

– Cramer likes UNH and see’s the stock as incredible cheap, I see investors putting money to work in UNH.  Stock could trade higher )

( update 10 am. On the UNH trade I should try to focus on my timing better.  I gave it a shot.  Still have about 8 hours for mr. market to wake up and price this stock lower because the Government should be able to crush the profit the one thing UNH had going for it the manipulation of health care costs.   I entered the trade when the stock was trading jut over $46.  I had seen the lower print and the fraud charges.  Then I pulled the trigger at .35 cent 2/15/08 45 puts in the heat of the moment yesterday. I closed out the positions It was  an out of the money trade trying to hit a home run.  Good chance after reading about it as a manipulation trade ahead of the news.  Big money stands to hedge the stock here while it continually repositions.  It is an election year.  The march 45’s look tempting.  

 entertainments purposes only, 

A bible passage –  

“Thus the total number of generations from Abraham to David is fourteen generations; from David to the Babylonian exile, fourteen generations; from the Babylonian exile to the Messiah, fourteen generations. 5 ”  Mathew summary,

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6 Now this is how the birth of Jesus Christ came about. When his mother Mary was betrothed to Joseph, 7 but before they lived together, she was found with child through the holy Spirit.
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Joseph her husband, since he was a righteous man, 8 yet unwilling to expose her to shame, decided to divorce her quietly.
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Such was his intention when, behold, the angel of the Lord 9 appeared to him in a dream and said, “Joseph, son of David, do not be afraid to take Mary your wife into your home. For it is through the holy Spirit that this child has been conceived in her.
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She will bear a son and you are to name him Jesus, 10 because he will save his people from their sins.”
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All this took place to fulfill what the Lord had said through the prophet:
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11 “Behold, the virgin shall be with child and bear a son, and they shall name him Emmanuel,” which means “God is with us.”
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When Joseph awoke, he did as the angel of the Lord had commanded him and took his wife into his home.
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He had no relations with her until she bore a son, 12 and he named him Jesus

February 14, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas, Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Nice rally, momentum stocks look good here.

The rally was impressive.  Must say most of this rally has me in tough shape.  I wish I could get this over bought and buying opporunity correct this past week.  Technology and oil seem to be putting a bottom in stock prices to date.  Frustrated about the move higher.  Chart patterns are adding to momentum.   Money moving out of bonds should be a buyer in the market.  I am taking a break early this evening and spending time with the girlfriend.  We are looking forward to some good television tonight.   I like  CALM, MDR, MTW, EOG, and BIDU in the morning.   I like put options in TGT, COF, XL, and UNH 

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February 13, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Short sold UNH, New York state investigating healthcare insurance fraud

UNH should be punished for committing fraud against it’s customers.  I hope you agree with me in condemning fraudulent behavior that ultimately denies society benefits and wastes.  New York state has launched a probe into illegal practices of Health Insurers.  I think UNH is a good short because of the dishonest behavior that I hope destroys the future of UNH. (update 2/13/08 lost alot of money on the trade – seperating morals from trading short term might be a lesson learned) Fraud has resulted in an inaccurate recording of profits in the past, and should not be allowed in the future.  One example of the alleged fraud New York is investigating UNH reportedly paid $62 on claims they believed should be paid $160 according to a Market Watch Report.  http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/new-york-charges-healthcare-billing/story.aspx?guid=%7BA6E79417%2D6D6C%2D48EE%2D9DC0%2DBB52F816DB09%7D&siteid=yhoof AET, CI, WLP, WCG or HUM also look tempting to short in my opinion. They are being sold off on fear of earnings going forward in a climate with much risk for the industry as the government looks to cuts costs and eliminate waste.   http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN1334410320080213?rpc=44   UNH said to be at the heart of the probe  http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b889EB25E-F08F-49AC-AA67-1465E44B9300%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo   Doing more research I found Nevada probably the most pro business environment in the world slams UNH saying they committed 130,000 violations from not paying doctors and collecting fraudulent money from customers.  It could face 10,000 per violation equaling 1.3 billion dollars in Nevada alone.  I have heard of stiffing patients; but, doctors?  That is a business model for disaster. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080208/nv_unitedhealth_sierra.html?.v=1  Punishing this corporation and crushing UNH stock is best for society.  No more compromises.  As a society we need to condemn those who have chossen to deny us health benefits.  The future is about good decisions; not profits.  An argument against the trade is UNH is a large health care provider with a history of profits, predicted growth, and should  benefit from economies of scale because of the size it’s network of customers. Some may seen UNH being oversold and as a good value.

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February 13, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Rimm a short here

Companies Black Berry service is out across the country. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080211/blackberry_outage.html?.v=10  Should cause a specific problem for RIMM , and problem could go on.  (update 2/13/08 – Stock is trading up recently.  My trade timing and call have were wrong to date.  The stock rallied with the market.  Investors buying are looking at the growth potential of phone users upgraded to the blackberry handsets.

February 11, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Being too aggressive

Being to aggressive has a negative expectation.   I have to do something to stop being overly aggressive.    I am all in on the RTH 90 put contracts.  I don’t like acting this way.  It seems to be a regular occurrence for me to be overly aggressive.  I need to get this problem fixed or I soon may be on the side line broke.   I told myself before the week started I would invest in the March contracts to avoid total loss.  I will keep working to get more balanced.  I really think the trade has a big upside.  I hope I make alot of money on the trade.

February 11, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

New accounting rules and interpretations are said to boost stocks

Pretty questionable stuff; but,  possible effective.    Real estate investment trusts now report using FFO measure regularly.   That takes out the non-cash charge for depreciation.  Here is a report from AVB using the term with regularity.  I have noticed this in all REIT earnings calls.  http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN0632078220080206?rpc=44

Banks have recently been allowed to take mortgages off balance sheets to meet lending standards to make new loans. ( I stand corrected,  with further research I found banks and other financial institutions have been using this practice for a long time with regularity making it impossible to figure how bad things could get http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/BanksDarkOffBalanceSheetWorld.aspx )   Not good.   This make a lot of sense why bond markets have dried up.   People have no idea how over leveraged banks are because of home loans, and corporate buy outs.  I take from this the buyout market is dead and not coming back any time soon.  That takes a big up side catalyst out of the market.

Builders are writing off the values of land currently in earnings.   This is said to have a positive effect later if the values go up on these lands it will boost earnings.  Builder DHI talked about being able to raise a billion dollars in free cash flow this year.  Wow!  One could make an argument for a higher price on the stock with cash flow like that.   http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dr-horton-swings-loss-builders/story.aspx?guid=%7B8DF49C4D%2D6BAE%2D4CF3%2D8D3F%2D7FA1406E5F27%7D&siteid=yhoof

A reinterpretation of how stocks are valued could be a big positive for the market.   This has to be balanced out  with the other side of the argument about a slower economy.   I remember when they changed dot.com accounting interpretations.  That led to a big crash.  More volatility ahead.   One comment that is hard to argue against that people use is how good is your own situation.  People do tend to have a harder time finding weakness when they look at how good their own personal situation is.

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February 7, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bear market, Dead cat bounce

 

Dead cat bounce is a bounce off oversold conditions similar to the old addage even a dead cat bounces off the ground before it returns to the ground from a large fall.  Jim Cramer cited this evening that determining the bottom in a bear market is near impossible and the bottom in the market is far from over.  Specifically caused by the redemption of mutual fund holders, and hedge funds getting crushed as commodity prices have crashed in a short period of time causing further redemption of assets in the markets to settle debts. Dead cat bounce is an unsustainable rally that fads.  Who is buying here?   Warren Buffet said the dollar may be worthless in five years yesterday

02/27/2008.  http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/warren-buffett-says-us-dollar/story.aspx?guid=%7B50CE458A-3BB1-4934-83B1-FB368B0FCD66%7D   Tech giant Cisco with drew guidance for the year.  Then made comments abouts its ability to change with the times. What? I thought they were a telecom fiber expansion play.   Google never has given guidance.  Google markets crap on the internet and people are catching on.  I could see foreign nations not allowing the sale of crap to their people.  Google has taken initiative to improve the quality of products offered.  Oil giant Shell issued some disturbing news that is could not deliver oil promised to the market becuase of security reasons and what it called sabotage of it’s pipelines in Africa.  http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/shell-declares-force-majeure-nigeria/story.aspx?guid=%7B4AC5EFC0-BDD8-4285-869D-5EABB71CB43F%7D  I think the educated trader just sells the market higher every time it goes up.  The investor takes his profits.  I don’t know who would be a buyer in this market.  

Jim Cramer said the bottom is in.  Of course Jim like any nimble trader or the market me can change his opinion at quickly.  He likes Brazilian stocks.  like AMX and PBR  (update 2/7/08) 

So,  lets take a look at his argument.    Companies are trimming expenses and valued at a lower multiple than a few months ago.   Going forward this makes stock investment more attractive.   Corporations believe the 2nd half of 2008 and 2009 will be good for earnings.   The stock market being a forward looking indicator may dictate the bottom is in.  The vix hit 29 recently.  Meaning stocks volaltility is peaking and may have change directions.    Investors are flush with cash and certainly not going down with out a fight.   Just have to see what plays out.   AAPL  and other stocks may be a bargain here.

entertainment purposes only

February 7, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

NYX looks like a good short

Jim Cramer did an interview last night with the CEO of NYX (NYSE) and it sounded like a tough road ahead. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=639480517&__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Cvideo%7C&par=yahoo  Increases in volume have been offset by increases in costs.  Volume going forward could stay high or it could drop off.  I think it will decline as the economy slows and with the rise of the Shanghai trading.  After all the last CEO of NYX was fired late last year. Things can’t be great.  CME is getting crushed today because of higher trading costs. I think a short is worth a try.  Upside seems limited and downside could be higher than thought.  Volume could drop off a cliff at some point.

February 6, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Reasons a recession could be healthy for everyone

1. Forces people to work together to find solutions

2.  Enforces accounting standards  

3.  Looks to the past to find mistakes

4.  Less consumption is good for sustainability

5.  It forces weak competition out of business

6.  Takes uncollectable debt out of the economy

7. Brings government intervention

8. Restores profit rates

A recession applied properly can help to minimize future problems   

entertainment purposes only

February 5, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas | , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

MTG looks like a good short here

MTG a private mortgage insurer looks like an attractive short.  MTG has held up and I think is over priced and should go to zero.  The company should be worthless when all is said in done by normal accounting standards.  If competition is allowed, a recession takes hold, and accounting standards are enforced MTG could go to zero   I hope the government progresses in its fight with greed.  I do worry because they recently allowed banks to take assets/debts to off balance sheets to be able to continue to loan money other wise not meeting correct  reserve requirements.

entertainment purposes only 

February 5, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Extremely Bearish on the market

The stock market will crash in my opinion.  I would play it with a short in RTH, XLF and or SPY.  The market system is broken and not working in my opinion.   Service sector contracted to a reading of 44.6 while analysts estimates were at 53.  That is a serious miscalculation.  http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080205/wall_street.html .  Any reading under 50 indicates recesion or bearish indicator about the economy.  So service sector America seems to be hitting a rough patch.  Lay off the service employees when things get tight and continue business as usual.  Markets no longer crash because the fed cuts rates, doesn’t pay it’s debts, and buy stocks when they go lower.  Gotcha capitalism is another article on yahoo this morning.  http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/01/04/gotcha_capitalism/  Looks like yahoo pulled the story; but, I found something to show I am not making this stuff up.  Must of aggravated a few too many corporations using gotcha capitalism.   As in put you on hold until you hang up. Charge you fees when you aren’t looking, and get over on you any way they can.  

   A bidder for Norther Rock has pulled out of it’s bid to save the troubled bank. Corporations  true colors come through as they bid for corporations using loans and then back out when they can’t make a profit          http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/02/05/cnrock105.xml 

  I have plenty of loans I would like to back out of.   I’m tired of the government lending money to business’s to get over on me.  Tired of the government paying interest on money that is doing nothing.   Given the world has limited resources and humans are committed to racing to consume all of them.  Interest on idle money needs to be reduced and eliminated as the return on capital reduces.   There are answers and money can retain value; but, manipulation makes the problem worse in the end.   The unfolding of this may take 5 minutes or 10 years; but, it is better to find real solutions early to avoid disruptions. 

 We have large problems antagonizing other nations and not looking for common ground.  We cut are health care standards and military expendutures are out of control.  You can’t call people your enemy and fight wars to solve problems.     Honesty and understanding will always be the solution to problems.   The United States continues to persist that China, Iran, North Korea, Russia and others pos threats to our nation.  That is a losing strategy.  All people have to be our friends.

 Cutting taxes with government partnerships  https://topstockblog.wordpress.com/2008/01/23/lower-taxes-and-government-partnerships-with-corporations-and-people-best-for-economy-funded-with-tax-credits/ 

Standards to demand from you elected officials and new president  https://topstockblog.wordpress.com/2008/02/04/standards-i-am-looking-for-in-a-new-president-and-all-people-elected-to-office/

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February 5, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Standards I am looking for in a new president and all people elected to office

Here is a list of standards I hope our new president and all elected officials will try to achieve.  Its more important to find a sustainable, and creative capitalist society with functioning markets than some sort of Feudal society with a non functioning market

Listen to all people

Represent all people

Work to achieve a clean water supply for the world going forward 

Work to ensure everyone in the world has food and shelter

Look to find common ground with all nations

Regulate all markets and enforce minimum standards that provide moral benefits

Look at the need to limit world population growth

Be honest and fair with everyone

Work hard with the interest of all people in mind

Try to find peace and security for all people

Enforce estate taxes and offer early settlement of debts to reduce disruptions to the economy  and the stock market

Use higher and lower tax rates to achieve the most sustainable society

Work more with other nations to maximize world welfare and achievement of minimum standards

Create government partnerships with corporations to be able to reduce tax rates, eliminate debts, and reduce impact of business cycles https://topstockblog.wordpress.com/2008/01/23/lower-taxes-and-government-partnerships-with-corporations-and-people-best-for-economy-funded-with-tax-credits/

Advocate and encourage public trading markets with lower taxes

 Discourage isolation and concentration of capital with higher taxes on excess wealth

Cut taxes funded with shared passive owner ship in large corporations

Act morally

Restate world goals of freedom  and respect for all

Expand the educational achievements and opportunities available to all people

Be considerate and understanding to the diverse needs of all people

Expand health care access to all people by expanding educated professionals

Invest heavily in renewable resources  to ensure affordable and available energy for all people

Prepare for the future

I think John McCain is too inflexible and committed to violence to bring lasting peace.  Romney is too greedy.  I oppose all war and realize terrorists are trying to achieve chaos through world wide human suffering, and wars waste natural resources.  I like that Barrack Obama  is the only candidate who voted against the Iraq war; but, is not afraid to change his opinion with changing understanding of reality.  I like that Barrack wants to help the middle class and less fortunate in our society.  I like that Barrack has not excepted any money from special interest groups.  I do not like that Barrack has been very unclear or lacks the ability to state how he will achieve his goals.  Hillary Clinton speaks of achieving similar solution in the future.  I don’t think rich or poor people of the world want to live in a morally unsound world that fails to manage for the future. Taxing excess profits at higher rates is a realistic solution to paying for past mistakes and short falls of tax collections to pay for are consumption.  Pure capitalism states that humans are better dealt with by ignoring their needs.  This will prove to be a disastorous situation if the world races irresponsible to over consume, no population constraints, and a lack of focus on minimizing our actions.  The government needs to bridge the gaps of what capitalism has created and where it falls short of desirable results.    Sharing world education, forgiveness, managing world populations, security, trade, and minimum standards for the world are key components of achieving a peaceful future.   I feel Hillary and Bill are most capable of finding common ground.  I would most trust a woman (Hillary Clinton)  guided by a man (Bill Clinton) to find the most rational solutions.  Barrack may be young and untested; but, ultimately be best for the nation.   The future will bring reality as we have guided it. The stock markets long term function is only in doubt with politics as usual.

February 4, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Changing your mind after buying/selling a stock.

Many times I make trades into stocks that I don’t have complete understanding of to chase an opportunity.  Taking  a stab with an educated perspective looking for a stock to move favorable higher or lower.   After putting on the position  I continue to further investigate the trade.  Sometimes I like what I find and other times I realize I missed part of the story.  That does not mean my trade won’t work; but, does mean I should adjust my exit  strategy to meet what reality is offering me or may offer me.  Adjusting your trades to what is actually going on in the market has been very helpful.   Don’t be afraid to change your mind.  Be flexible and change your mind as your understanding of reality changes.

    Most traders only deal with a list of stocks they fully understand to avoid this problem.  Many analysts only follow one stock or a few stocks so they can be up to date on all the developments in a stock and the surrounding industry. 

 Understanding of ones self will always be an important part of trading successfully.  I personally live to find the next big idea or trend in any exciting story.  I get too emotional and quick to forget the past.  To deal with this I continually work on my trades.  Go over my rules for trading.  Try hard to resist being overly aggressive. I created this Blog to help myself work on my trading ability.   I had to turn off CNBC during trading hours because of the typically manipulation you find in any for profit enterprise.   I had resisted the idea of not watching CNBC from the first time I heard about being more successful with the t.v off than on.   My experience watching, and with out lead me to believe for the time being I am better off with out it.  I changed my mind on my short position on Google  or at least realized most of the profit in the trade may be gone.   I was able to exit this morning with a profit.   GOOG will probably stagnate here and the move higher over time.  

entertainment purposes only

February 4, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Shorted GOOG again

 (Exited Position Neutral on GOOG updated 2/5/08) GOOG is going to continue to trade lower in my opinion.   Selling will continue Monday as the stock is not as attractive to investors.  Many may sell off the stock because it missed expectations and MSFT is buying YHOO.  The Google team is talented and growing.  Take a look at the conference transcript link at the bottom from Seeking Alpha.

  BIDU is taking share in China and can take on searches in multiple languages.  BIDU is going after the search market in Japan. The valuation is way too high given the uncertainty of future profits.  Where ever there is profits competition is sure to rise up.   I don’t think its a stretch to say Microsoft entering the search market buying  YHOO will seriously slow growth expectations of Google. http://www.cnbc.com/id/22947600/site/14081545?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo   Nor is it a stretch that earning could deteriorate as a result of customers clicking less advertising as they become aware these ads are often low quality trying to sell something.  http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080201/google_ahead_of_the_bell.html?.v=1 I have been in and out of this stock short the past month, and putting my profits backs to work on the news that  MSFT entering the search race buying YHOO.   I think GOOG trades back to $450 sooner than later.    The conference call was mixed.  Google is working hard here is a link to the conference call. http://seekingalpha.com/article/62591-google-q4-2007-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo&page=3  Some interesting improvements in expanding different language searches, and a cost per sale option offered rather than a cost per click as a choice of options should boost ROI for advertisers.   Growth in the U.K was only 5% and 9% in the U.S.

entertainment purposes only

February 1, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Larry Kudlow of CNBC negative on the market?

Larry Kudlow is an important commentator from CNBC that brings important news and people to the television to discuss world market news. (Update July 28, 2008.) 

Larry Kudlow is still negative on the market; but, wants to believe in a summer rally.   (Monday July 28th 2008)Kramer talked about news conference disclosing SEC policy enforcement of Short Selling rules already on the book to protect common Americans and assume people of the world.  Stay vigilant Jim Cramer and thoughtful people around the world shall save the rest of the world!!!  

 

Wow, 

Larry Kudlow is scared of the bond defaults  (January 31st, 2008).  At least he seems not his usual confident self.  His audience is negative.    $2.3 trillion municpal market around the country has systematic risk according to a guest.  In my opinion the retirement system of obligations may make it impossible for stagnant areas to pay back the money at some point in the future, and lead to defaults as others recognize these risks. The problems of a pure focus on gr The market is surely going to trade lower tomorrow if the trend is still lower.  Kuldow’s guest talked of funding sources drying up with demise of MBI. Bull’s argued derivatives in bonds bonds is where the value in MBI is .  No-one really knows where we go from here. Pension funds have to hope this is bottom or they will have to sell to meet funding requirements causing a snow ball of selling. 

He also talked about long time economist Pual Vulcur is backing Obama.   Paul Vulcar an economist Larry thinks acts with good judgement will be helpful.  I think Obama is another George Bush with distinct differences.   Obama has some good values that will be helpful to all people around the world.   With some good economists on his side maybe they can bridge the gaps.  I think Hillary Clinton will deliver the better future.  Sure makes me feel better being weighted short the market. 

entertainment purposes only

January 31, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Market looks for value stocks

Market looks like it is trying to find places of good value, and avoiding places of high risk.   OIH is up on spreading disruptions in Africa, and the Middle east.  Possible up on the big snow storm in China.   Some places of value I see buying in are AAPL, CALM, CMED, GLD, GS, ISRG, POT, and OIH.  GOOG (Google)  Seems to be selling off with investors looking looking to avoid the downside risk, and lock in profits.    A bit tricky figuring out how much lower Google could trade.   I have been a bit uncomfortable trying to trade, and make good decisions.   I put some money into cash.   I excited my short in BJS.   Just have to keep working hard to find opportunity.

Entertainment purposes only

January 28, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The world needs to come together to meet minumum standards, feeling bearish

I can’t imagine Google doing very well around the world because of the rise of competition in the space.  It’s advertising’s fails to meet minimum standards of value in my opinion for the current stock valuation.  I like Google as a search engine,  and hope the corporation continues its success;but, the share price could go much lower.  

The market is going lower in my opinion because of changes in business climate due to problems not being dealt with effectively. Be careful, market could go higher on the one week fed rate cut having influence, and another rate cut may be coming Wednesday.   I am looking at CALM, GG, CMED, ISRG on my buy list.   

   My economic understanding leads me to believe stocks will be repriced lower because of current prospects for the world economy.   The government and banks are showing signs of weakness.  No concern  or awareness of the rapid population growth of the world, and related risks that may stem from population growth such as over consumption of resources. http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20080127/sc_livescience/humansforceearthintonewgeologicepoch

(The following are my dogma ideas to help the world economy)

The economy does show many signs of hope with the recent cutting interest rates, military successes, and leader like Bill Gates.  On the other hand we have the largest budget deficit in the history of our nation.  The rise of unsustainable riches and inequalities need to be reconciled.  I have a few ideas to help the United States. Inclduing reducing taxes, and reducing the deficit of the government https://topstockblog.wordpress.com/2008/01/23/lower-taxes-and-government-partnerships-with-corporations-and-people-best-for-economy-funded-with-tax-credits/  ,   I have thoughts to help home owners  https://topstockblog.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/motgage-solution-for-the-united-states/

    People are capable of adding value, cooperation, and forgiveness.  All people deserve  clean water, electricity, food, fair treatment, internet, peace, protected boundaries, t.v.’s, and homes.  Embracing these standards would be helpful to turn around the world.   Yet, people continue to act disruptively.  El Sadr threatening to re-engage in fighting after the cease fire ends.   People from all influences need to come together to meet each others’ needs.  Security and good judgement is the best thing all people regardless of ideology can provide for one another.  http://real-us.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080128/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq;_ylt=AkS4MpGm1JqKwfb2qejan5RBXYh4   The world needs to use stored wealth to feed, protect, educate, and help all people find shelter, electricity, bathrooms, and maybe t.v.   At the same time wealthy should be able to enjoy their wealth while expressing an understanding of others.  Americans should not over consume or be scared of people around the world.  Excessive profits can be taxed at higher rates.  The U.S has historically had a back-loaded taxation on wealth a death to maximize growth.  When the laws were made people had no idea how long a person could live or how much wealth could be created.  Wealth needs to be passed on in smaller increments.  Possible by creating passive grant ownership by the government in large corporations.  Minimum standards for all people may be able to be met more appropriately.  As a trader and for all the traders that just wanted to have a rewarding career its about value.  Not the profits.  If people make excessive profits because of unforseen world events.   Governments’ with more cooperative, stated, and transparent global welfare standards could add great value to the world.   The governments of the world need to decide to work together and not let dogma get in the way.     People want others to do well and people failing is very counterproductive because of multiplyer effects.   Trade opportunities and transparent markets are most capable of reaching societies potential for prosperity creation.  We need to work hard to build on previous gains from history.   Society needs to bring security to people.  We need to stop giving free checks to people, and let people earn the money they receive.  World bodies need to bring in more regulators to make sure money at high levels around the world is distributed honestly and with good judgement.   We do not want to fight endless wars.   People like to trade and more traders will help provide liquidity to world markets.  Trade thrives best when everyone is confident in each other and minimum standards are met.   

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January 28, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Shorting ETF’s from SeekingAlpha.com, Great website for stock market information

Seeking Alpha is a great website.  The site has lots of traders offering quality stock market information.   I just read an article thats answers alot of questions about shorting stocks.  The article suggest shorting QQQQ and SPY ETF’s if you were goign to try and short a stock.  I found the article very helpful.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/61431-shorting-etfs-goodbye-to-the-old-risks?source=d_email

January 27, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Tips on getting started in the market

  1. Learn about the market before you invest your money or start small 
  2. Stay away from Penny stocks
  3. Find high growth stock that could move up quickly
  4. Only buy stocks at a discount
  5. Open an account with only the highest quality brokers.  I am happy with Scottrade Securities.
  6. Open a margin and cash account if possible.  The interest you pay on margin is hard to overcome.  By having a cash account you can use that mostly, and the margin account when you want more leverage or to short sell a stock.  Stocks trend higher over time becuase of earnings, accumulated capital, and new technology so not many shorting opportunities are available.  Only look to short the very worst of stocks at over bought prices.
  7. Set stop losses for positions.  Don’t add to losing positions. 
  8. Read as many articles, and books as possible. I read a few books from the library when I didn’t have money to buy a book.  Jim Cramer has written several good books. Find a book on technical analysis. Read a book or take a course in economic theory. 
  9.  The  Kikr Report http://www.thekirkreport.com/ is  a great website to keep in touch with the market, and learn more about the stock market.   I would recomend becoming a member.
  10. Turn off CNBC they are not your friends. Too easy for anyone on the shows to manipulate you for financial gain.  That is the advice as have recieved from other professional traders and my experience.
  11. If you don’t have much money find a job or career to accumulate money.  Trying to work ful l time and invest actively is too diffucult.  Adopt passive trading rules to keep you interested; but, not uncomfortable. Things can change in a moment and you have to develop your feel for trading over time. Open an account and start with the idea of earning a small amount or gaining experience. 
  12. Patience and good judgement are the quickest way to achieve good results. If you are short on either try to work on these skill sets. 

January 25, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Market going to test the lows again, bearish GOOG

With some people just not understanding why things could be better with compromise I believe the stock market will crash.  The key to my hope and change to optimisism was the market appeared to be getting it that we are all in it together.   Bill Gates being progressive trying to help the impoverished.  The house introduced a bill to restate the governments responsibility to everyone.   It hasn’t been passed yet.  The can’t move forward if people think the goal is to try and get over on one another. 

The rate cut could make a difference if people have faith in the value of a lower interest rate to banks.  Not sure it will work yet.  Customers may not be as quick as they were last time to go for lower rates.  So the one week effect of rate cuts boosting stock prices as seen in the past may or may not show up.

The smart ass comments back in the mix from CNBC reporters about pure capitalism is the answer and always has been is very concerning.  The world again realizes these guys’ don’t get it and might just never get it.  Until they do get it.   I am staying bearish.  An additional rate cut should make things interesting; but, when used as a tool to get over on people can’t possible be the answer.

  I like a shorts position in GOOG especially http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080125/22841725.html?.v=1   I think Google has very specific to google problems pitching ads for mostly crap, and competition is coming quick.  I have just added the kitchen sink to this trade.  Also shorted BJS an oil servicer with 70% of it operations in the U.S because the United states is running out of oil, and oil should be peaking with Solar stocks taking the lead.  Dubai’s 15 billion dollar emission neutral city could be a sign oil has peaked.  OIH, GRMN, QQQQ, XLF, MSFT, MRK, XL also look like tempting shorts. 

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January 25, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

No one can predict the future. Sell GOOG, Buy CFC

Update, 6/15/08

CFC seems to be bottoming with the buy out of BAC.  I swear BAC was just ducking personal loans it made and eliminating a tough competitor.   I little more bullish on the pair as the real price with capital injections, buy outs, and frauds on the loose.  Inflation actually arrived as war appears in the cards with Iran.   I love Russia is my last comment)  Russia believes it is on the verge of major technology development in the nano-technology group.

 Still like a short position in GOOG with a major new business product out from MSFT offering cash to devloopers, programers, and the like who want to make money.  At Dynamic Microsoft.

 

GOOG and BIDU are up nicely in after hours on Microsoft’s 30% growth in revenue.  I call it the Halo effect.  http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKWNAS774320080124?rpc=44   (updated 2/5/08  Neutral on GOOG under $500)

  I short sold GOOG and then added to my position after listening to a guy on CNBC about declining searches and users not clicking ads.   Not proud of that (Going to trade with the t.v off tomorrow, too easy to be manipulated)    Still want to be short going into earnings.    A lot of competition rising.  http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080125/22841725.html?.v=1  Wiclapedia is launching a search engine.  BIDU is taking 80% of search es in China and just announced its launch in the Japanese market.  Declining revenue per transaction around the world is not supportive of GOOG.    Looks like a good pop to short.  Not taking anything away from GOOG; but,  the stock may be over valued.   Bull market is making a case going forward with hope. 

I am long CFC   The corporation is a leader in the mortgage refinancing market and should rake in big profits with the increases in loan sizes to 125% of median home value in a community proposed by congress. BAC may a share price offer at $7.50 I believe.   Stock should be pretty steady; but, could pop higher when application numbers increase.  

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January 24, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Stocks for 2008 GFA and UPL. A look around the world

Some interesting stocks around the world I dug up this evening I wanted to share.  Amazing how much can improve in a day with good judgement.  My favorites that I found were GFA, and UPL.  Lots of others worth looking at.

Barrons 2008 picks from Seeking Alpha

http://seekingalpha.com/article/60838-art-samberg-s-6-picks-for-2008-barron-s?source=yahoo

  

India, WIT, INFY, TTM

http://www.forbes.com/2007/11/28/india-corruption-bangalore-pf-ii-in_rr_1128soapbox_inl.html

Forbes Bric investing for the bold, EEM, FXI, IIF,INFY, PBR

http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/2007/10/31/brazil-india-china-pf-ii-in_jd_1030newsletterwatch_inl.html?partner=links

website is for entertainment purposes only

January 24, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Stock market Buy!! or Sell!! humor

stock-humor-buy.jpg

January 23, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Tricky market, shorted RTH on the pop higher

(Exited  trade because the rate cut will has a positive effect on earnings with the Refy business coming back.  HD and LOW look best in the group. Updated 1/23/08 3 pm )   Retailers trading up today.  Not sure why in this bear market; so I took the oppotunity to short the RTH index.  Not sure about the market direction from here.  I would guess we continue lower.  I am still in my short on CRM.  I exited the XL trade because the stock was already sold off, and buyers started to come in as they did with MBI scaring me out.  XL hit a low around 36 this morning.  May well have been a bottom as the Fed cutting rates should allow business’s and homeowners to find some ways to save money refinancing.  I wish I would have tooken the plunge long into YGE on the open around 21-22

entertainment purposes only

January 22, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Earnings reports for the week

Seeking Alpha has a nice article highlighting top earnings for the week and trade ideas around the earnings.  MSFT, SPWR, WFR, and POT are all mentioned.  I am not to confident about which way earnings results will drive stocks.  I imagine each corporations earnings will be judged by itself.   I speculate some corporations will  have a hard time meeting growth estimates if the recession spreads faster, and further than expected which is typical in a bear market.  On the other hand with the recent correction added to a big sell off at the open Tuesday could be a short term bottom if earnings are decent and the world doesn’t melt.  I  honestly have found a new respect for the capitalist market.  The market rages ahead quicker than would be the case in any other economic model; but, then can rapidly put on the breaks if needed.  The breaks are on, and with investors still sitting complacent the pain level for most long the market could increase rapidly.                http://seekingalpha.com/article/60818-6-key-earnings-previews-aapl-msft-ebay-pot-wfr-spwr?source=yahoo

entertainment purposes only

January 21, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Stock market crash humor

comic2.png

January 21, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Whats on sale in the stock market?

(Update July 11th 2008)  The market appears to be oversold.    Topstock blog recomended shoring XL and others stocks six months ago.  The corporations that can survive this down turn may become buying canidates.  I am liking XL an insurance stock with alot of assets and cash.  XL will pay out a dividend of over 7% with XL plummetting in value over the last year.  

I believe the market is trying to get where ever it needs to quickly, and the Fed’s leader Bernanke is very aware of what is going on.  Some assets were overpriced forward looking.  Sustainability and surrounding morality issues are in my mind.   A few stocks are tempting at current prices. I might buy CALM because it is oversold, starting to act well, and my favorite sustainable growth story.  CMED and YGE look tempting to buy particularly with China’s sell off Monday.   All stocks may open lower making for a good entry point. Things in the world are getting more tricky with the sell off over seas.  Trying to be careful.   I wish I could of got into GS at $187 this past summer.  $187 for GS now looks not as tempting.   Too many people still want to buy into this market from my bear market point of view for stocks to stop declining. 

On the other hand  corporate America is healthy and stocks could rally when the Fed cuts rates.  I just read an article from Ben Stein about the market not being a bad time to invest.  http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/62337;_ylt=ApROSGTguIHTte4UKci.aqa7YWsA  Overseas markets are getting hit hard Monday on fears about the recession in the United States. U.S. markets are closed in honor of Martin Luther King.   

Mcdermitt  (MDR) a top infrastructure builder around the world looks to be a good value around current prices.  Apple (AAPL) showed off a new micro laptop at Macworld.  I thought it could becom the next big hit in a few years if they could get the price affordable for average consumers.

January 21, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Past thoughts on CRM

 

(January 18th, 2008 –  CRM is trading lower this morning, and I think it may be the beginning of a big move lower.   Friday  January 18th, 2008      10:30 am

  I must say thank you Cramer from Mad Money for the UA information last weak that helped me make the move to short the stock.  I lost a little shorting CRM last week another Mad Money stock from Cramer about possibility of sell off.  Today the market seems to be positioned to take the stock lower when the market is open.  CRM has very little earnings;not good in my opinion.  Growth expectations to high for slow or bear market based on principles of doing more with less.  The competition is coming from all angles.  It is just too easy to duplicate customer management software.   Good customer service, followed up witha letter, and a couple of phone calls over the next year is not worth billions of dollars.  Not saying that’s all CRM does; but, you get the point.   INTUjust entered the market with a simple customer support  service that customers can call to get help.   The article pointed out other competitors CNQR , INTU, OMTR,TLEO,SFSF,N,PAYX.  It also mentioned GOOG in the article not as a competitor; but, as a source of new business for the sector.  I can see GOOG is looking to grow to move into the sector with the low barriers to entry.  Google has good street cred as Cramer would say when it comes to delivering a friendly product that makes investors mullah. –Some adlib–

   Pricing pressure in customer management from advertising or lack ther of.   To other anticipated slow downs that can hurt. , business cutbacks,  and churn should all erode CRM’s future hopes.  At least that my opinion.   http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/17/saas-recession-concur-tech-enter-cx_sm_0118saas.html?partner=yahootix

            Entertainment and Education purposes,  Edit, Update, Cite Sources, and Help Others.

January 18, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Opportunities shorting war related stocks,

It is very clear that the country should move away from war related spending to balance the budget.       Thursday Jan 17th  2008  12pm

Going forward cutbacks in war spending are the quickest way to balance the budget.  Shorting LMT, BA, NOC, GD.   (updated found others in the industry that may suffer from cutbacks COL and ATK)

 I personally find war appalling and in these time of weakness can make a great short opportunity with good judgement.   The world would me much better represented with a dramatic decrease in spending on the war related stocks.  Shorting LMT, BA, NOC, GD.   War is not a tactic of a moral society, debtor nation, or aging society.  America may and can decide to be a peaceful nation.

             entertainment purposes only,

January 17, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Shorted retailer Under Armor (UA) , stock priced for growth

(Update 10/12/2008 Sunday) Under Armor (UA) is fighting back in a bear market. UA has had success gaining contracts and products in recent months. Check out Thomas Wheisal Conference at UA website. The stock has shown great volatility since my original post in January. UA looks to be settling into a consolidation pattern I suspect will last for a long period of time. — end update–
Being in a bear market Under Armor (UA) a trendy sports wear company seems to be fading,              11 am 1/17/08  Thursday

and the stock is getting beat up.  The corporation has been operating with a negative cash flow, and is going to have to get more soon. It just broke lower out of a consoladation trend and I was able to get short just under$40 .  I hope the stock goes a lot lower soon.  The risk is not much, Bernanke seems to offer no help and I have lost my faith in him.  (Updated 10-12-2008 Topstockblog has regained faith in Ben Bernake and lost faith in Hank Paulson.  Check out the pictures from the G-7 conference to promote economic financial stability October 2008.

Entertainment and education,

January 17, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

BUY’s on FXI, YGE, CMED, AAPL, GS,

When searching for stocks, and trading.   CNBC is always hyping one side of the story or the other (Bear Market) or (Bull Market).   It is easy to get confused.  So to watch or not to watch?   I like to watch; but, often wished I didn’t.  If you look hard enough you can find what you are looking for.  That doesn’t make it more true than the other side of the situation.  It is just too easy for CNBC to manipulate the story to expect them not to.  After all they represent a corporation dedicated to making money G.E.  I demand higher standards.  It’s not until average Joe is able to demand standards before we will get them.  I hope to do my part with my blog.

      I was a little disappointed when the friendly cute lady on the show was stopped from talking about problems in the market on Monday when it was rallying.  Confirmed my suspicions CNBC was actually against independent reporting of the news.   

I wonder how long ago China, Dubai, and India figured this out?  Too bad they might just be playing the same game.  Well with higher standards we can make sure we live in a better world.  Higher standards for drug companies, government oversight, honesty, quality of life for all, clean water tables, jobs, and a sustainable competively priced stock market are all achievable.

Any way I am going long the stock market at todays prices.  Top companies are buy out targets for over seas companies. I am taking a shot with the against the grain trade.  Getting aggressive ahead of option expirations this Friday.   I like FXI, YGE, CMED, AAPL, and GS here. 

I am working on an add on about fixing the American economy permantly.  Going to finish it up and send out the senators.  That could give the market reason to rally….lol           I’ll post it on the blog when I finish up.     I will be sending it along to some senators/my congressman and hope others will help.    

                                                for entertainment purposes only

January 16, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Freezing up, long INTC ahead of earnings

Wow!                   Monday  4 pm 1/14/2008

I sure have had a hard time pulling the trigger lately.  That feeling of freezing up has passed through me most days.  It happened a few times to my benefit last week.   I’m still carrying a lot more risk than appropriate.   I certainly don’t have the cure for freezing up (since admitted trading is not for me).  I remember reading if you are going to be successful you have to trade in the day-trading industry.  This may be true at times; but, the market has shed many hopes and jobs over it’s history.    Predefined trades were a mentioned remedy.  In my opinion it is helpful to set a stop loss up beforehand with a profit target (a set price to get out at).   My timing was rarely in touch with the market. Well that didn’t work out.  It appears as long as wall-street takes write off and has oversea’s exposure they may do very well.    Provided we can make friends in the world.   I say we work to improve the worlds poorest by giving them all chickens, lambs, and plant-able crops.  Might be better than using guns and bombs.   Went long INTC ahead of earnings with 90% of their revenue occurring over seas.

 I since pulled the trigger and moved into INTC ahead of their earning tomorrow.   INTC gets 90% of their earnings overseas and I think this will be a big plus in the earnings report and send a lot of money into the stock.  The trade did not work as the market looked forward INTC reality coordinated with the world slowdown.  Another lesson from the books everything goes down in a bear market; even the leaders.

Entertainment, and education.

January 14, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

IBM strong, stock market out look evolving.

I figured the market would either start high and close low today.   Or start low and end lower.  well maybe,     Monday Jan 14th,  2008

Well that didn’t work out.  It appears as long as wall-street takes write off and has over sea’s exposure they may do very well.   Provided we can make friends in the world.   I say we work to improve the worlds poorest by giving them all chickens, lambs, and plant-able crops.  Might be better than using guns and bombs.   Went long INTC ahead of earnings with 90% of their revenue occurring over seas.

  I do see a few cases for the long side argument one being the market has corrected.   A second reason being emerging markets continue to grow strong.  U.S business’s are benefiting and will continue to benefit from a weak dollar to boost earnings results.  IBM beat the street estimate by 20 cents   $2.80 v.s $2.6 a  share this morning .  I heard an argument on CNBC a few weeks ago that humans will continue to race ahead until all the resources are gone.  Given the weakness in the dollar, and a new president it could be a good year for the stock market.  Value entries are being talked about on CNBC this morning.  A few blogs have also made value entry comments.  I feel more neutral on the markets direction from here. .  I like AAPL, CALM, DRYS, YGE, AUY, and CMED today on the long side.  

I am still short and feeling some pain watching the ticker this morning.  Just happy I have some profits to lose.     I am going to stay short this morning and most of the week if the top is on the open this morning.  If I see the market opens up 100 and goes higher then I will start to worry more….lol     I still can’t find any reasons why the RTH doesn’t go lower.  What could possible save the retailers.   Weakness could be ahead in the markets.   The bank of England has not being able to raise cash to save Black Rock bank, and Goldman Sachs is recommending the move to nationalization of the bank.  I heard talk on CNBC of Citi bank not being able to get the money it needs from China and may to have to lay off another 20,000 jobs.  The economic theory there goes why would you save your competition.  That was the argument used by an analyst in reponse to Warren Buffet’s Berkshire investing in MBI and or other mortgage insurers in trouble.  More profitable to let your competition get weaker.     We did turn off our economy six months in front of China’s Olympics, Bejing 2008! (or at least I thought we did)  England is running an estimated 3% deficit, and talked of being in Afghanistan for decades yesterday.  I sure bet the U.S is sorry for not supporting a Soviet take over in the 1980’s of Afghanistan.    I think the pop on the open is good to help the markets re-balance.  

                                Good luck!

article for entertainment purposes only.

January 14, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bank of England moving to nationalizing Northern Rock bank! Organized by Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs helping to line up Northern Bank nationalizatin in England.  The article states no private options are viable or available.  They say they can’t find the 15 billion dollars needed to bring the bank to international standards.    Check out this article in today’s  United Kingdom Telegraph.  Lets see how the market react.  It sure helps one understand how bad things could become.  Should put a pretty big scare in the market for good reason.  I can’t imagine governments can nationalize too much.   That means a lot of banks and business’s will be going out of business the hard way with no parachute for the fall.   I give much credit for Goldman’s action facilitating the populism movement should be good for stocks longer term.  Market just needs to value sustainability instead or growth.   Sustainably growth could become should become the new methodology of evaluating stocks.  Goldman looks to be on top of the curve.     Definitely staying short QQQQ and CRM.   Going to be shorting the RTH retail holdings index Monday.  Don’t think any one can save retailers even if they wanted to.  check out the article!    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=J1D10W44PAXFBQFIQMGCFFOAVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2008/01/13/cnrock113.xml

January 12, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The stock market should be volatile monday

  1/12/08 Saturday

  Tough week for the bulls.  Most everyone lost a lot of money except the bears.  I am one of the bears; but, wish I cashed out before the close.  Verizon called me trying to get me to resign for another two years as the market closed.  I was a bit too greedy and didn’t pull the trigger earlier in the day and it may cost me.  

You are always guaranteed to lose some premium on an options contract at the open on Monday of an expiration week.  I wish I never answered that call by Verizon.  But, I guess I’ll have to wait till Monday to see what happens.   Verizon must of bought some customer management software like  CRM I am short.   Looks like the product might need some work.   

     I am sure there will be plenty of sellers going into monday with fear riding high for retirees, and the market will be none to accommodating to let them out on a large gap lower.    Could be hundred points  down or up on the open with all the volatility and associated heads games. 

Everyone seems to be looking for more cash and the market is trying to do the shakedown the best it knows how with a crash.  Must be that trade deficit catching up to us.  Disappointing the market is supporting drug, health care, and hmo’s.  I would think that the all seeing market could figure out socialized medicine is coming and in the entire nations best interest.

  Look to get in or out at your price on  Monday.  I am sure the market will go both directions.   The one thing I fear more than the banks explaining why they lost so much money.  Is the terrorist making an attack when they see weakness or us being dumb enough to attack Iran.  The world needs to work together.   I sure hope we get a president who invests heavily in solar and brings about a system of socialized medicine.   Its the only reasonable way forward. 

     Pure capitalism was created hundreds of years ago when people thought humans were heathens.   We had no idea how much one human could do or how great a country we could build.  Google is working on robots that can calculate every angle, and think more intelligently than humans while we surf the internet. I sure hope the heathens don’t blow it selling us out to the greedy.  Its no longer the rich we have to fear.  Its the greedy.  The world has enough resources so every hard working American can have a home, two kids, a picket fence, Mercedies, and a college education. 

   The Dow could crash a few thousand points according to one bear investor on t.v.  Maybe or maybe we trade higher this year.  Stranger things have happened.  I hope populist female president wins and sets the world straight.   Life’s to short and precious to be wasted on wars.    The world gets more crowded every day and respect has always been a sure way to stay out of trouble. 

 A lot of funds have set rules that have been triggered by all the weakness in share prices.  So that could provide grounds for going lower; but, the market likes to keep the investors guessing.  Jim Kramer from mad money was constructive about AAPL, AUY (Kramer’s best gold stock).  I like CMED SEED MOS and YGE for bullish trades or investments next week.  I like a short in any retailer.   I may short TIF,  BLK , or QQQQ for a trade.  I don’t see any light for TIF with the high end women already sporting all the diamonds they should rationally desire and the heathens still don’t have any money or lost it this past week.   Market makers are sure to be currently swimming in sells with all the selling these past few weeks; but,  I think they have been waiting for this and should have no problme taking the market where it needs to go wheather thats higher or lower.  

     No important indicators until Tuesday’s retail sales, retail sales ex auto’s, and PPI.  The inflation numbers are going to start moving higher or the balance sheet losses are going to pile up for retailers.  Kramer was making fun of sports retailer that said BGFV could no longer say the were the third largest sports retailer.  The environment does not seem friendly for passing along costs to the shoppers who are managing to make less transactions, and spending less each time.  Good job!  I imagine the balance sheet losses are going to pile up and inflation will stay tame. Lets hope not and the nation realizes they have a diverse region with the population equally distributed 2/3 of the 70 million that is under the age of 30.     Apple a big conference to showcase products on Monday in Europe that has always made the stock move higher in the past.  I think Apple should open much higher given the pull back and the growing number of world wide consumers that would like the new gadgets Apple creates.  Select software companies also appear to have some support  I notice that  some stock seem to be establishing a small base and others look to be heading out of business.  First I want to say it is a miracle that the banks could straighten their balance sheets out.  Society should demand they are as leanant with American tax payers.  Not the current administration, and not unless it is demanded.   Good luck getting the oblivious to notice anything going on concerning their children’s future.   I think the plan going forward is to support anything that America has patents behind and sell everything you can’t patent. Drugs stocks are definitely benefiting.  You would think no one told the investors most major drug companies have pipelines that are at best comparable to the drugs we already have on the market.  How many cholesterol, heart, depression, anxiety, or pain medication can society need.  How many CEO’s can we send to the moon if they would like.  Wake up wall-street!  Wake up America!  Over paying CEO’s is not capitalism its feudalism.  No body wants to live in a world where they don’t know if the money in the bank will be worth anything.   No wants a fixed rate triple AAA top rated fund that only returns half its investment.  

 Mrs. Clinton appears to be turning more populust to get the votes or maybe she is following her heart.   She proposed a 70 billion dollar stimulus package.  25 billion dollar tax rebate.  5 billion towards renewable energy.  That will put a dent in the 500 billion needed to put 90% of the world on solar energy in the next hundred years.  Now if she just gives back the $800,000 Michael Moore states she has received from the drug companies and health insurance companies in his movie Sicko ( A must see for all).  Maybe everyone can health care this century and doctors can still get a few hundred thousand a year in real currency.  Any way sure hope Hillary puts  a few accountants and economists back to work.   We need to reconcile our balance sheets of wealth in the country, eliminate the massive trade imbalance over time, and make some real friends.  Wake up America!!  

January 11, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment