Topstockblog

Blogging to add value. Sharing and discussing helpful websites, money, stocks, etc.

Stock Market direction?

Article created 2/08/08; updated -7/11/08, – 7/12/08, – 11/08/08.
(11/08/08) Market direction appears unpredictable, and future decisions still have there role to play in the direction of the market.  Value stocks are offering safety and opportunity for higher valuation in future years.  Tech stocks, auto, hardware, housing, credit, and other groups still look avoidable in my opinon.  The recent consumer trend of spending less, is hurting many businesses + people; but,  I think a little less greed will be beneficial to all.  

(7/11/08) Topstockblog still believes a lot of negatives for the stock market will develop over the coming years; but, selective stocks, and even indexes may be headed higher short term or maybe a few regional banks going bad could push stocks down for years to come. The retirement obligations could become more of a burden on the U.S. economy. Technological development , and innovation are key to maintaining, building, and living a in a successful economy.
Recognizing more can be done with less in the future is a part of the solution. To the point the stock market, bank loans, and other wealth/debt instruments add value to society they should be embraced. We just don’t want to get caught wasting resources that repeat the last fire ball on the earth. I would guess fires can more diffucult to deal with than imagined. Wealth maintainanance is a function of a developed economy. The world economy can be good for most people with careful judgement. need to bankrupted or a war breaks out before bottom. Maybe that market goes to zero. No one can see the future; but, we can try to predict it. )

(Originall article from February 12th, 2008) Many stocks are at attractive prices giving good technical patterns to be bullish about.   They have retraced nicely to value entries, and many see the second half of the year improving.  I read GM’s earnings and was most disturbed by the fact that one in ten of its mortgage holders is late on their home mortgage. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aJh9qdhjgm_4&refer=news   I feel the bottom line is profitable banking business is over.  America has reached a point where expenses just to support a home are much higher than in previous years.  Combined with a tight labor market and past easy credit.  Write offs are going to be part of the future for banking.   I am looking at shorting BAC because I know they seem to have been aggressive and greedy with customers.   They took over many banks and I’m am sure have a higher than expected number of bad debts on the books.

Entertainment, and education

November 8, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Mortgage Solution for the United States

Mortgage Solution for the United States

 

Mortgage problems should be in part fixed with passive permanent grants.  Both local and federal grants should be made available to those that want help. Grants are not new, and have been tailored to meet challenges of our country in the past.   A grant program dedicated too homeowners that want help, and need help would have a positive multiplying effect on the entire nation, and world.  Changes in infrastructure needs, debt levels, population demographics, and sustainability all contribute to the need for more government grants.  

 Vermont a leader in progressive ideas has used a small scale passive permanent homeowner grant in selected environmentally considerate multiunit complexes to the benefit of all Vermonters.  Vermont requires those who want to apply to the program to take a financial education workshop, and also helps people straighten out past credit issues. Vermont is one of only two states in the nation to sustain housing prices in the last year.  The grant would stay in place forever as percentage of ownership in the property supporting the homeowner, home values, the entire community, all with a financial interest, and or moral interest.   

Struggling home owners could use this type of grant to regain their ability to contribute to the economy. Home owners could transfer partial ownership of their home to the grant program.  Homeowners, banks, realtors, appraisers, bondholders, renters, and the entire world would benefit.  Being progressive in dealing with struggling homeowners will help deal more effectively with fluctuations in the business cycle, and allow our government to show its commitment to being thoughtful of all.  

 So much of a home owner’s life goes towards paying the mortgage. This maybe impractical, and unsustainable in part because of increased efficiencies, limited natural resources, global competition, and an aging population.  Resolving this material weakness will be good for everyone, and increase flexibility of our economy to meet future challenges.

Currently small regional banks have been exempt from banking regulation of their mortgage originations.  Banks have relied on the under educated, and under informed customer to be their main profit source.   Enticing people with low introductory rates into products they could not realistically afford in the long term.  The lapse of regulation that has occurred continues to contribute to the housing problem, and now threatens to hurt the entire economy.  All Banks need to be regulated in all areas to ensure fair treatment, and pass along increased efficiencies to society.

Further regulation of mortgage brokers will only work if all banking is regulated.  Brokers’ help customers get into programs created by banks.  If banks can do anything then increased regulation of brokers will be ineffective. Rates of profit allowed should be tighter on brokers because of increased efficiencies in recent years.  Government needs to from time to time pass along efficiencies gained by business/society to the consumer.  Too address and eliminate a weakness of capitalism.  

Rates of profit allowed should be lower in particularly on teaser rate mortgages, adjustable rate mortgages, stated income mortgages, and interest only mortgage programs because of the increased risk to bondholders who take on this debt.  Additionally smaller profits on questionable programs would encourage brokers to put customers in the right mortgage product for the customer.  This can be done by slight modifications to laws already in place by states, and the federal government.

Mandate all adjustments in rates to be indexed to too the federal funds lending rate. Rather than indexes that have the potential to distort adjustments materially higher. To ensure maximum multiplier effects by federal policy. To increase transparency of investments’ in mortgage bond; hence, helping all investors be able to make better decisions.  

Prepayment penalties on mortgages need to be reduced, and morally applied to everyone alike.  I would suggest no more than one year to reflect the increased ease at which mortgages can be created, and to not unreasonable slow down transactions of home investors. To fill a loop that unfairly sets up teaser rate borrowers to large pre-payment penalties that can erode equity in homes.

Passive or active government grant type owner ship in all banking comparable to what is already in place with large federal banks could be used to help banks retain market value, continue to work to improve efficiencies, and better align there moral values with everyone in society.  Government intervention would ensure the sustainability of the banking industry despite continuing unforeseen changes in their role.  Banks need to be better able to make more thoughtful decisions without fear of going out of business.     

Handling this sensitive issue quickly would be prudent to show Americas’ ability to respond quickly to changing information.  Permanent grants can be used by individual states, entire United States, the world, and or any area of human concern. I hope to continue to share my understanding on other issues our nation faces in the future.

   

October 22, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bank of England moving to nationalizing Northern Rock bank! Organized by Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs helping to line up Northern Bank nationalizatin in England.  The article states no private options are viable or available.  They say they can’t find the 15 billion dollars needed to bring the bank to international standards.    Check out this article in today’s  United Kingdom Telegraph.  Lets see how the market react.  It sure helps one understand how bad things could become.  Should put a pretty big scare in the market for good reason.  I can’t imagine governments can nationalize too much.   That means a lot of banks and business’s will be going out of business the hard way with no parachute for the fall.   I give much credit for Goldman’s action facilitating the populism movement should be good for stocks longer term.  Market just needs to value sustainability instead or growth.   Sustainably growth could become should become the new methodology of evaluating stocks.  Goldman looks to be on top of the curve.     Definitely staying short QQQQ and CRM.   Going to be shorting the RTH retail holdings index Monday.  Don’t think any one can save retailers even if they wanted to.  check out the article!    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=J1D10W44PAXFBQFIQMGCFFOAVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2008/01/13/cnrock113.xml

January 12, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment