Topstockblog

Blogging to add value. Sharing and discussing helpful websites, money, stocks, etc.

FEED and VAR new stock picks

FEED – is a good growth story related to China.  Stock has been consolidating, and could move much higher.  Catchy name stock, China related growth, and consolidated stock price pattern all good reasons the stock to trade higher in my opinion.

VAR –  is the producer of a product for treating cancer with direct radiation beams. Incredible peace of technology for treating cancer.  Good results recently published.  Definitely makes this stock a candidate for take over bid at a higher price. Rumor of take over bid in media stated reason for stocks recent rise in price.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10484612/1/options-varian-calls-active-on-buyout-talk.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Entertainment, and educational purposes.

April 12, 2009 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions., Uncategorized | , , | Leave a comment

Jim Cramer of Mad Money’s latest picks for the week

Jim Cramer of Mad Money’s latest picks for the business week

SQNM a new biotech company with a safer baby testing product for testing pregnant women safely for down syndrome with a major data point due out January 31st, 2009.  The product introduction to the market is expect in June of 2009 if the date point is positive.

CITI Bank under $7  is a screaming Buy!  Buy! Buy!  Jim applauded recent lending initiatives taken. 

GLW  Corning a fiberoptic play he chanted  Buy! Buy! Buy!  Calling it big buy change of significant value!

JOYG  an oil play with a strong drilling operation for a  great trading opportunity!

Entertainment and education,

December 20, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions., Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Stock market crashes, and links. Will the market rebound?

Stock market looks poised to crash again December 12th as a $50 billion dollar ponzi scheme is exposed.  Jim Cramer has called out the Securities and Exchange Commision for failing to enforce the law, failing to stop market manipulation and conspiracy by hedge funds out of control.   The markets unfriendly nature is driving money out of the market and keeping participation low.   The job picture is also getting worse with jobless claims hitting a 17 year high for unemployment benefits filed in a single week at 577,000 new applications.   

Stock market crashed 444 points November 20th 2008 to Dow 7500 today, and looks poised to go lower as the market rarely bottoms on a Thursday.   Markets typically bottom on Monday morning.   Dow 6800 stands out in my mind as a low from the early 1990’s.  I believe that more accurately compares to the economic uncertainty facing the world going forward.  Jobless claims hit a 16 year high.  Possible even lower if any major unexpected   To be honest with the continued destruction of jobs around the world; complete disregard for balancing the budget or impossible task, and environmental concerns of the world it is hard to believe that change will not occur.  Karl Marx the socialist recognized as one the great minds of Economic study predicted capitalism would come to an end as the capitalist systems fails to be able to meet the worlds needs. 

   This types of thinking typically occurs along side of great fear in people at the bottom of capitalist markets; but, this time may be different.  Technology advancements have allowed us to do so much more with so much less.  The work of one hundred men can be done by one man in many areas of business.  So clearly a more responsible society would disregard or accommodate business’s that continue to allow us to raise standards of life while achieving sustainability with the environment.  In order  not destroy the planet for future generations.  Many corporations across a wide spectrum of industries are closing up shop or will in the next twelve month’s due to negative margins and a negative market out look.  

 October 10th 2008 comments – Why does the market crash every day? The market can go to zero.  If people  want the money, and the system becomes insolvent.  Stocks can go much lower.  Cities ask when will the credit markets reopen for city bonds.  That is laughable in a way.  Why would someone buy debt in a system that is capital isolated, and losing money increasingly as far as the eye can see?  Stocks that make profits should hold Steady here.  IBM looks way undervalued.  I like Buy IBM at any price, even though,  all stocks go down in a bear market.  With a few exceptions.  Government can step in and manage stock assets in ways that business has failed to do or better align interests in ways that make more sense.  The American government has proposed taking a 79% ownership in the new AIG corporation.   Other than the $440,000 part executives threw to celebrate the recent loans.  Topstockblog see the moves as halfway sensible  with the government ownership.   Why do we have to pay for houses forever?  We don’t.  Why doesn’t George send checks to all Americans.  He has authorization to sign the checks.  A most diversified society is the best one.  That is the American dream.  What are constitutional signers agreed to value above, and beyond greed.

 

(Original June 6th 2008 post) The  U.S. stock market crashed nearly 400 points today http://www.yahoo.com/s/895280  (Friday June 6th. 2008).   The largest increase in jobless claims increase in 22 years, and oil per barrel rising $10 in a single day.  Given the large amount of the increase in oil today, and over the last year oil is probably going much higher.

The stock market was up 200 points yesterday.  Some people had become more bullish on the market going forward with Carl Ichann a major investor reiterating his wish to sell yahoo at a premium of $32.  Interestingly Carl seemed to think $32 was a fair price in part because of the effects of inflation in the future making the premium of $32 a fair price.  Some investors jumped at his latest comments that sent the market up 200 points were now caught long.  The market always is challenging.  Historically the market is very volatile with inflation in the water.

 The Kirk report http://www.thekirkreport.com/    talks about the likely hood of further weakness.  The bottom that many hoped was set in March is probably not the bottom.   With so much trouble in the world and major support being broken putting big doubts in the theory.     I expect more investors piling into oil and out of stocks Monday.  I think the low could be set Monday if the sell off is big enough or some time in the next couple of weeks.

Entertainment purposes,

December 12, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Looking To Get Back in the Stock Market?

Looking To Get Back in The Stock Market?   Be careful, and make a plan. 

 

Tough choice,  (November 26th 2008)   Market trends seem to be ever changing.  I have put a buy list together.  This is a good starting point.  Fundamentals change quickly.  My Buy list targets include MDR, MTW, CME, CHAIN, YGE, Yingle Solar has been beaten up with declining margins; but, supported by locked in government contracts.  CME has took a recent dive as the market has perged so many hedge fund investors that have left the market for one reason or another.  Chicago Mercantile Exchange has strong earnings, and has a great business hosting futures trading.   New government legislation bringing in new traders with a is essentially the market maker.  I am sure CME can make profitable margins, and should continue to focus on consolidating markets while creating a participant conscious market.  I took GOOG off my buy list because of declining margins and fear of declining numbers across industry players.  Last month Google was a favorite. Best hope some new model that better reconizes Google value to the world. Citi Bank looks to have a big upside potential and only $7 left until zero. I hope have a really good chance of making money over the long run.

You can make a fortune buying and selling at the extremes of this market  is a comment from the Kirk Report.   

(Ocotober 31, 2008) I am staying out of investing at least until the new year. Very excited about locking in my first year of tradig profits.  In addition to a recent removal of an adrenal gland in the wrong place makes me understand stock trading is not for myself.  I still like to watch, and reflect on the market developments.   The biggest thing I learned is to lower my expectation and limit how much I watch the market.  Be patient, and wait for stocks to move into your target buy or sell range.  Keep hard work, experience, and sense of humor on your side.  The market still has life to it. 
  Traders  moving the market when it goes higher, and over exuberance relentlessly leaves profit on the short side.  Investors are buying long term here and some are selling.  Green Span comments early in 2008 on U.S economy did put our economy exposed to high oil prices.  

(November 26th 2008)

(October 31st 2008 list)

GOOG – is gaining market share today, and offering value.  GOOG price multiple for years after 2010 are too low.  Goog seems to ad value and create opportunity.  Risks remain in slowing trends in advertising budgets.

CROX – look likes  dicey here;  over sold and has a large short position.  I don’t see Crox as a fad and earning are strong.  Crox is trading at a price you could make 10X your money in a few years if things go Crox’s way.  The quality absorbing plastic shoes are nice; the hard plastic shoes should be faded out.  Sure inventories may be high; but, that seems to be a strategy from beginning of the trend.  Sending piles of Crox slippers to retailers to boost consumer confidence in the style of Crox

MDR – looks like a takeover candidate, value play, strong infrastructure company with buyers

YGE –  Solar pricing should be strong with government assistance; but, depressive oil prices could be diffucult.   Reasonable priced growth stock.

COF – The recent injections of cash should boost earnings in 2009.  Further weakness in consumer credit debt is expected with the relief valve of the government cash COF may be a worthy investment.

entertainment purposes and education.

November 26, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Jim Cramer’s latest thoughts and bullish stocks. Mad Money recap

 Jim Cramer’s latest thoughts and bullish stocks. Mad Money recap

Jim Cramer (November 27th 2008) is very excited about small successes in the market, and has come out with several stock picks C, MDR, CAT, AAPL, NUE among several other stocks he is cautously bullish on.  Cramer targets corporations with dividend’s and stable share holders.  Cramer recommends not trying to time a bottom, diversification, and doing your homework.

(June 15th 2008) Jim Cramer recently published am artcle about sticking with new tech. Corporations that will meet the worlds most pressing issues over the next 50 years like Energy, poverty, environment, clean water, and population. Here is the list of new cap published at the Street.com a cool website for stock market information. Recap: Stay with New Tech05/20/08 – 07:43 PM EDT
CMI EMR ENER (Breakout Stocks PICK) ETN FSLR GLW HLF NAVZ NYX PH
TheStreet.com Staff

Review Jim Cramers latest edition of Mad Moneywhen searching for stocks, to gain both insight, and understanding of the latest developments in the stock market. Through this link to this website that gives a link to the latest show. Including a link to Jim’s portfolio plus recent trades. A link to Warren Buffet’s portfolio, and alot of great information.
http://www.madmoneyrecap.com/

Entertainment purposes only,

November 26, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Stock trading system using 50 day moving average supports, strong stocks, and market trends

Trend following trading system   Overview 

Make money buying, and selling stocks using a trading system that relies on pre-planned trading rules.  The rules are designed to take advantage of fundamental analysis, money management, technical analysis, and the regular development of trends in the world.  

I created this trading system which was inspired by The Original Turtle’s commodity trading system. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=928713    I have tried to creat a system that is adjustable to meet many individual needs, and minimal time commitments.

 Buys and sells are based largely on stocks chosen to watch crossing the simple 50 day moving average (DMVA), and the simple 20 day moving average.  These entries are to be made into a set list of stocks following the rules to avoid making emotional trading decisions.

  Portfolio selection rules

The system is to focus on the best growth stocks in the market.  Additionally stocks to short sell can be focused on singling out the worst stocks that can be short sold.   Focussing on stocks with the worst forward looking future to be part of the bearish group to be short sold.

After identifying bull and bear stocks watch you must decide how many stock you want to attempt to manage.  You should look too the time you want to devote group size should be based on experience, time to dedicate, capital available, and personal judgment.  Groups can be selected by one’s self or using a reliable source to cater to one’s experience or lack thereof, and personal choice.   Stocks should normally have a two to one ratio of bullish stocks to bearish stocks to reflect the overall concept that stocks move higher over time.  I suggest starting the system with 4-12 stocks in the bullish group, and 2-6 stocks in the bearish group.

The two groups should be reexamined, and updated every week end, or ever month or year depending on ones choice.  Stocks should be added or removed because of developing trends in industries, changes in technology, changes in leadership,  population demographic changes, politics, natural resource developments, natural disasters, wars, politics, and forward looking changes in revenues and or earnings can lead to trends. A stock can be removed from the list at this time if quantifiable factual evidence exists that may cause a trend to end, or in an attempt to find better opportunities. 

A stock should only be removed if no open position in the stock exists.

Groups’ sizes should be reduced if the current group is proving too hard to manage.  Or the group size should be increased if one has been successful with the current group size, and feels it would be beneficial to add more stocks. 

Rules

  1. Use a set list of stocks. 
  2. Determine all simple 50 and 20 day moving averages for all of the chosen stocks on a daily, weekly, or  monthly basis.   These averages will be used set up trades to be executed.  Also determine all value entry prices.
  3. Buy a unit of a bullish stock at or above the 50DMVA, plus at or below the 20DMVA.  A position should be initiated at the open on the first business day a stock has been added to the bullish group and meets these parameters. 
  4. Buy a unit of a bullish stock previously added to the bullish group when it crosses the 50DMVA on an intra-day move from below the 50DMVA.
  5. Buy a unit of a bullish stock previously included in the bullish group when it is above the 50DMVA + above the 20DMVA then retraces to hit the 20DMVA on an intra-day move. 
  6. For all trades initiated, a second unit should be added at the open two business days later as long as the security has not triggered a sell. If a sell is triggered the trade is done.
  7. If a stock gaps higher or lower breaking through an entry price, still go forward with the trade at the open as long as the gap does not void the trade by reaching the exit point before entry.
  8. Sell all units of a stock when a daily close below the 50DMVA occurs for bullish units. All units should be sold at the open the following business day.
  9. Short sell a bearish group stock at or below the 50DMVA plus no more than 10% below the 50DMVA.  A position should be initiated at the open on the first business day a security has been added to the bearish group and meets the above parameters.
  10. Short sell a unit of a stock previously added to the bearish stock group when it crosses from above to below the 50DMVA on an intraday price move.
  11. Short sell a unit of a stock when previously added bearish group stock had been below the 50DMVA and below the 20DMVA and retraces to hit the 20DMVA on an intra-day move.
  12. Close out all short sold units of a bearish stock at the first daily close above the 50 DMVA at the open the following business day. 
  13. Value entry – buy a unit of a bullish stock when it reaches a value 20% below its 50DMVA.
  14. Value entry – short sell a unit in a bearish stock when it reaches 10% above its 50DMVA.
  15. Exit all units of a value entry stock at the open following a day when a closing price reaches an average loss of 8% or higher on the trade.
  16.  Do not buy any stocks below the 200DMVA. (added rule after seeing recent bear trend, and listening to other successful trader that employs this rule with success.

   

Risk reducing strategies

 

 A portfolio should own no more than two stocks from a specific subsector (i.e. computer hardware) in one direction at any given time. No more than four stocks should be owned at any given time in the same direction that is highly correlated (i.e. oil corporations).

The system uses moving averages as a technical indicator to buy stocks when others are likely to also be buying, and sell quickly when the stock has lost this technical indicator advantage.   The system focuses on only the best opportunities in an attempt to maximize returns, and minimize the down side risk of any position.

   

Unit size

Everything can be scaled down to the point of functioning even if that means investing in one or two stocks.  Adjust the units to no more than 30% of portfolio if possible. Use a single unit strategy rather than buying two units reduce commission charges.  Also, reduce the number of stocks in the focus groups to those with best chances to trend well.  One could just invest in bullish group stocks to avoid paying margin interest that may be associated with shorting stocks, and take advantage of the principal that stocks tend to move higher over time. Stocks move higher over time because of retained earnings, stock repurchases, accumulated assets, increases in productivity and advances in technology.  One should consider only investing in stocks that have been recommended by a pre-determined reliable source if they have a lack of experience, time to dedicate, and or comfort with making stocks selections.

For a higher net worth portfolio

 

A suggestion would be to use under five percent of a portfolio in an individual trade.  Units are to be figured by taking the total dollar value of the portfolio multiplied by the percent determined for a unit.  The unit is to be recalculated every weekend.   The stock must be liquid enough to not have the trades materially affect long term results. Exits can be done in two unit sales on the day a sale is called for if the position size is hard to liquidate in one sale.

   Final Thoughts 

      Stocks make a good opportunity for this trend following system to be financially successful.  This trend following trading system is for your education and or entertainment purposes. This system can be tailored to meet your own ideas, time frames, trading tools, and any other special needs. Business conditions are always changing, creating an ideal situation for trends to develop routinely.  Many trades will have a whipsaw effect because sells will often be triggered shortly after you have purchased. This system is designed to preserve capital, minimize risk, and make the vast majority of profits in a small number of trades that trend much farther.   Most of the work for the system is to done on the weekend and outside stock operating hours.

Entertainment purposes only,
 
 
 

 

November 15, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Stock Market direction?

Article created 2/08/08; updated -7/11/08, – 7/12/08, – 11/08/08.
(11/08/08) Market direction appears unpredictable, and future decisions still have there role to play in the direction of the market.  Value stocks are offering safety and opportunity for higher valuation in future years.  Tech stocks, auto, hardware, housing, credit, and other groups still look avoidable in my opinon.  The recent consumer trend of spending less, is hurting many businesses + people; but,  I think a little less greed will be beneficial to all.  

(7/11/08) Topstockblog still believes a lot of negatives for the stock market will develop over the coming years; but, selective stocks, and even indexes may be headed higher short term or maybe a few regional banks going bad could push stocks down for years to come. The retirement obligations could become more of a burden on the U.S. economy. Technological development , and innovation are key to maintaining, building, and living a in a successful economy.
Recognizing more can be done with less in the future is a part of the solution. To the point the stock market, bank loans, and other wealth/debt instruments add value to society they should be embraced. We just don’t want to get caught wasting resources that repeat the last fire ball on the earth. I would guess fires can more diffucult to deal with than imagined. Wealth maintainanance is a function of a developed economy. The world economy can be good for most people with careful judgement. need to bankrupted or a war breaks out before bottom. Maybe that market goes to zero. No one can see the future; but, we can try to predict it. )

(Originall article from February 12th, 2008) Many stocks are at attractive prices giving good technical patterns to be bullish about.   They have retraced nicely to value entries, and many see the second half of the year improving.  I read GM’s earnings and was most disturbed by the fact that one in ten of its mortgage holders is late on their home mortgage. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aJh9qdhjgm_4&refer=news   I feel the bottom line is profitable banking business is over.  America has reached a point where expenses just to support a home are much higher than in previous years.  Combined with a tight labor market and past easy credit.  Write offs are going to be part of the future for banking.   I am looking at shorting BAC because I know they seem to have been aggressive and greedy with customers.   They took over many banks and I’m am sure have a higher than expected number of bad debts on the books.

Entertainment, and education

November 8, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Yahoo losing market share, and likely to continue to trade lower,

Yahoo has recently over played it’s hand in negotiations with rivals Google, and Microsoft.  Yahoo continues to under deliver content to users, and adept to market trends.  Everything Yahoo does; Google or someone else does better. In a shaky economy even Googles valuation at 15 times earning seems rational. Yahoo valued over 25 times earnings would be well served to sell at any price; sooner than later in my opinion to promote shaeholders interest.  I do continue to use Yahoo as my home page; Ironically.

entertainment, and education,

November 5, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Why The Japanese Yen will continue to appreciate; Buyers!!

In a market with few opportunities; nothing looks more safe than the Yen a currency with assets, and limited liabilities.  Certainly a rare find and buyers of large sizes particularly Eastern Interests will likely undermine The United States currency given current challenging economic climate.

Tokyo’s NIkea is at a 26 year low.

October 27, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas, Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Apple Corporation looks very attractive under $100 a share

Apple has long been a leader in innovative technology.  AAPL stock has traded much higher prices in the past, and probably will retest those highs around $200 at some point in the future.  Great investments are made at times of weakness into corporations that should be part of the solution.   Apple has great capacity to improve people’s lives around the world in a sustainable way.  I-phones are a revolutionary cell phone that is a great resource to owners.  Offering all the features of a phone, music player, and small personal assistant.  Including access to the Internet.  The idea that schools would cut payments to buy computers over payments to retired teachers , and law enforcement is pathetic in Topstockblog’s opinion.  Particularly to retirees’ with new jobs, and large savings.  Wake up America!  Make sure all children have access to technology.   Profit measures are inappropriate over relied on when valuing corporations like AAPL who have the ability to build a much better world.  

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?Feed=AP&Date=20081022&ID=9309300&Symbol=AAPL

 

Entertainment and education,

October 22, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

To buy or sell YGE, on the sell off in the solar stock.

YGE ( Update + republish) Wednesday October 8th 2008 )solar is a strong corporation with big prospects for making an impact in the search for sustainable energy in the future.  Yigle has signed many deals that will bring a great value to world regardless of profit margins.  YGE brings out more important challenges of the future in recognizing value to the world without concern for profit margins.   As oil has plummetted in recent weeks with the market.   A great value play is offered in corporations that can deliver enormous benefits to an equally sucessful, and sustainable future.

YGE solar stock is a great value at this price and way over sold.                      Tuesday    1/15/2007    12:30pm

  The company is a top tier provider in Europe that is distinguishing itself by working to become the lowest cost producer.  Conferences are scheduled 16-18th Jan 2008 Photon Tech in Shenzhen China.  Then at the World Energy Summit 21-23 Jan in Dubai.   The company should anounce results sometime in early February.   The company has been mentioned in many blogs as growth stock to be bought on weakness.   I think the market may be bottoming here.   A week latter and lower on 1/21/08  Stocks looked good at $29 and better at $25

October 8, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Day trading, and taking losses

Day trading is very hard.  The work done well is consuming and mentally draining.  Wallstreet tries to make money on every trade, and made a cardinal mistake this life time.  Being overly overlyaggressive, and continually attacking the weak.  That is not using our minds to most effectively.   The long term view, and helping other’s is of greater importance in my mind. 

 

Topstockblog has worked to focus on learning from my mistakes, and growing as a trader. 

(updated old trading notes from January 31, 2008)

Picking my battles, and limiting my losses needs to be the lesson learned.   I still like the short in COF.   The bulls’ made a great argument today.  COF has recently crossed above its 50 DMVA and bottomed with excessive volume around 40.   I could have covered my short with a long hedge.  A straddle would have worked well.  Short sellers  covered, and buyers bought.   The after hours news was icing on the cake for a bull.  Could mark the top in after hours. Rebuy doesn’t start until 2nd half of the year and the debt level ratios were mentioned indicating of more erosion of ratios in my pessimistic hope.  Really interested to see the jobs report in the morning.  More data points are going to make things more clear.  Deterorating loan quality and rising defaults are at the heart of my short sale argument on COF.   It is very difficult to day trade market successfully.  Seven tips I’d like to consistently remind myself of.

1.  Limit position size  – position size is critical to reducing being overly biased and too consumed by a single trade.  My return will be negative in the long run if I add to losing positions and over invest in a single idea.

2.  Focus on  making money in a competitive environment – Look at all angles of a trade.  The 50 DMVA shows you momentum and should adjust perspective to work with the crowd.   Identify who is buying and selling, watch the market for clues, and look for real reasons for a directional move in a stock.  Its not about feeling good or bad about a position.  It’s not about stress or lack there of.   It’s about making money.  “They are who we thought they were!  We let ’em off the hook!” Atlanta Falcons head coach after a bad game.

3. Good judgement is the ultimate winner in any market   I will be confused, and trading will be challenging.

4. Buy low, sell high.    Common sense

5. Sell high, buy low  – Common sense

6. Spread my money out more broadly – near delta neutral or at least a single bet long and short.

7. A percentage of funds in cash ensures flexibility to meet oportunity

8. Set stop losses to get out of a position when a stock does not act as you had hoped.  A maximum percentage loss when you will exit a trade. 

9. Reposition the trade to make extra profits.

 

Entertainment, and educational purposes,

October 1, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , | Leave a comment

T. Boone Pickens link looking to solve looming problems in the economies of the world.

T Boone Pickens Energy plan to reduce oil imports to protect the world.  T. Boones newest plan allows for complete elimination of all oil imports.

http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/126/a-mighty-wind.html   Pickens plans is creating jobs, and putting money in the owners of the land effected by windfarms.  10,000 – 20,000 per year picken is paying land owners; while, cattle can still graz the land.

 

T. Boone Pickens of BP capital management idea of creating an army of people cooperating to reduce oil dependence and protect the world economy. A long time Oil Man is changing his tune. T. Boone runs the world Oil Markets in combination with other world market players. T. Boone brought the lesson of high oil to the nation and world. The evil interests in the world are taking away subsidies of alternative energies, driving waste in oil use, promoting the attacks oil infrastructures, using the the threat of violence, and in some cases murder to achieve nothing. Oil should be around $3 a gallon sooner than later in America. I will advise T. Boone to buy domestic food to eleviate starvation around the world.
T. Boone is sure to run a tight Army with peaceful tactics to ensure the world is a safer and more fair place. Can't wait to watch the T. Boone Picken Army set the world straight. T. Boone is looking for the movers and the shakers to join together to get the energy policy right. I hope to contribute thoughtful ideas to help the world as part of the T. Boone Pickens Army.

Flexible taxation, Meaning 0 gas tax over $3 and more taxation when prices are lower to stabilize profits of cororations, increase public benefit, and realize real savings.

Entertainment Purposes, and social benefit.

October 1, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Glass half empty or half full!

Glass half empty or half full is a matter of perspective.  Topstockblog is a strong supporter of the glass half full.  Suffering or not; god gives us an opportunity to smile, and be thankful for what we have.  An opportunity to help others’.   Enjoy life, appreciate what you have, and be thankful for the opportunities life brings your way.

 

Entertainment, and Education purposes,

Stock market terms, that means the market maker is going to be moving things around a bit to accomodate many sellers; but, confounded by realities of balancing inventories, and making a profit.  He is hoping for a big profit!

September 30, 2008 Posted by | Personal Growth, Serious Subjects that need public exposure, Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) looks like a good stock for the next 12 months,

JNJ corporation a family staple good.  Supplying a wide range of pharmeacutical products.  has an unprecedented number of supporters over at the Motley Fool an investment community; JNJ 5 star rated.  This could of course be a contradictory indicator; but, I think JNJ will trading near 70 is a safe bet with more buyers than sellers driving the stock higher in the next 12 months in my opinion.   In a recession sales of JNJ will be little effected and given it’s scale of economy it should be able to continue to increase efficiencies lowering costs supporting by the high quality products JNJ is know for.   JNJ pays out  a 2.5% dividend. 

 

Entertainment, and education

September 21, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Stock market risks, buy Gold ETF’s opinion

The stock market is a very complex system with risk. Much of the risk lies in the future earnings expectations of some industries.
 The Kirk Report is a really good source of sotck information.  Jim Cramer of Mad Money on CNBC of The Street.com is a great resource on the stock market direction. I think gold will trade to $1000 an ounce or higher. ETF’s that track gold might be a safer investment. Diversification, and hi quality investments are very important.  Unfortunately what seemed so safe a few months ago have quickly become very risky assets in large part from greed.

September 18, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , | Leave a comment

Fannie + Freddie used poor accounting to create the largest public bail out ever,+ link, + quote from Ny Times

Freddie and Fannie Mae    The two largest lenders in the United States housing market appear to have been manipulated numbers recently to offset the timing of losses, and used other complex accounting manipulations for a variety of reasons.  The corporations state they were trying to help the most people possible.   Topstockblog opposes public buyout by tax payers with out public ownership.

-quote below taken from http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/business/07fannie.html?hp —-

“Regulators are also said to be scrutinizing whether the companies were trying to manage earnings by waiting to add to their reserves. Both companies have gradually increased their reserves for loan losses — Fannie’s reserves today stand at $8.9 billion, and Freddie’s at $5.8 billion.

Other companies, like private mortgage insurers, have been quicker to identify large losses and have set aside much greater amounts. Fannie and Freddie have dribbled out bad news with each quarterly announcement, suggesting they may be trying to manage this process.

Finally, regulators are concerned that the companies may have mischaracterized their financial health by relaxing their accounting policies on losses, according to people familiar with the review. For years, both companies have effectively recognized losses whenever payments on a loan are 90 days past due. But, in recent months, the companies said they would wait until payments were two years late. As a result, tens of thousands of loans have not been marked down in value.

The companies have injected their own capital into pools of securities containing these loans, arguing that their new policies are helping more borrowers.

Under conservative accounting methods, changing these policies would not have any impact on the companies’ books. However, people briefed on the accounting inquiry said that Freddie Mac may have delayed losses with the change.”

 

Entertainment, and education purposes,

September 6, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas, Serious Subjects that need public exposure, Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Japanese Prime Minister Resigns – Financials sell off heavily in Japan!

Japanese Prime Minister resigns in response to a weakening economy and allegations of dishonesty. The U.S. Stock markets will move lower as the contagion of distrust spreads, and clears a path into recession in Topstockblog’s opinion.   Expect more permanent losses in U.S. financial stocks. This could possible be one of the most healthiest recessions in world history.  Bringing to light problems in the economy and getting results.  May be not, the invention of electricity was a pretty good economic develoment. 

Entertainment and educational purposes,

September 2, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas, Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , | Leave a comment

Working to deal with differences; a theme of hope!

Many people around the world work in their own unique ways to solve problems.  Topstockblog wanted to share a blog that looks to solve difficult problems surrounding race, religion, and perception of others. Change of great degrees would require a great degree of understanding that can only be achieved by expanding communication with others.   Google possible is doing more than any other corporation in the world to connect the dots of evolution.  Topstockblog is positive on Google stock under $550 with 6-24 month time frame. Bloggers are filling in the holes Google needs a little help with. Typepad and WordPress allow hundreds of thousands of people to access the blogging world for little or no cost.
Check out article on race and religion . Looking at race as a theological problem. Good conversation; successful economies that last address all problems.

Found a cool site for Free Stock Photos to use on the internet provided a link is shared.

 

Entertainment and Education from the 3rd Prophet,

August 24, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas, Personal Growth, Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Should congress prosecute Karl Rove the brain of George W. Bush?

Democrats.com supports prosecuted Karl Rove and switching away from ATT phone services.  I have attached an impressive list of sources included in the email.  Toptsockblog like takes a bearish position on ATT going forward.  A friend was sold the stock through soliciation over the phone at much higher prices in the IPO that was well over priced.

—– Below Sources cited in Democrats.com newsletter  to support claims ——

Sources:

1) Just a few weeks ago, CREDO teamed up with Brave New Films to help deliver more than 120,000 signatures to House Judiciary Committee members, calling on them to hold Rove in contempt and arrest him if necessary to compel his sworn testimony.

2) AT&T’s support of Bush-Cheney in 2000 here: http://images.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?20035274581 and 2004 here: http://images.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?24990933215 .

3) Rove expenses covered by Bush-Cheney 2000:
http://www.opensecrets.org/capital_eye/inside.php?ID=143

4) In 2008, PAC giving from Verizon’s joint Political Action Committee favors Republicans by more than $10,000: http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pac2pac.php?cycle=2008&cmte=C00363127

5) Randall Stephenson donations: http://www.newsmeat.com/ceo_political_donations/Randall_Stephenson.php

6) Ed Whitacre “Bush Ranger” Status:
http://www.tpj.org/docs/pioneers/pioneers_table.jsp

7) Rove’s role in voter suppression efforts: http://harpers.org/archive/2007/04/horton-rove-cashiered-328483284823 and here: http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/editorials/134

——-End Source taken from Democrats.com newsletter —–

Some people believe Karl Rove should be prosecuted for criminal crimes.
Topstockblog is not sure on the best course forward. An investigation seems like a step in the right direction. Certainly political activism like reading and or discussing tough topics would be helpful. Can we really expect government to do all the policing if the peole do not care or take the time to care? does believe in governing using methods from the 1800’s. Comedian Ben Stien calls Karl Rove a good friend and describes Karl as good hearted. Topstockblog believes an appology from Karl Rove to the world would be appropriate.  Karl is said to have been part of a conspiracy Topstockblog recently watched on a plan that ws formed by the rich and elite to control the world forever with little concern for others.  Again, mistakenly a few individuals had innapropriate influence over important details in the economy with out concern for the people.   ignorant did not account for principles of technology, innovation, and intelligence to be able to do more with less while taking other complex variables into account to maximize satisfaction while minimizing harm. For example a basic principle of doctors of do no harm could be brought into all industries to increase the friendlyness of our economy.
Just because strategies of trickery used during the 1800’s worked in business, doesn’t mean we should not work to find better ways. The world needs to work to find ways we can work towards solving problems in the most positive way. Setting minimum standards and aiming towards other appropriate standards.
Democrats.com is an aggressive website targeting illegal, inappropriate, and other bad intentioned behavior that has gone on in Washington D.C.

Entertainment and Education Purposes from the 3rd Prophet

August 22, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas, Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

MSN Money – 5 Banks set to be big winners in the future with a little luck.

Do some stock research I stumbled onto an interesting article at MSN Money highlighting ” Five big winners in the Banking crisis.”   TD, ING, USB, and Wells Fargo.  The article includes a link to the previous five big losers of the financial crisis  Citi, Washington Mutual, AIG to name a few.

Entertainment purposes, and community benefit.

July 29, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , | 1 Comment

Topstockblog believes man made algorythims have the potential to solve the worlds economic and environment problems most quickly

 

Topstockblog believes algorythims a naturally occurring event in nature, and or man made events that occur in life sometimes in long repetitive patterns.  An algorithm can occur with some degree or transparency, a great deal of safe guards, and a degree of known benefits.   Algorithims can serve to benefit a number of purposes.   Great degrees of understanding of understanding and education are required to be able to connect numbers to life events to solve complex challenges of the world.

  A series of reoccurring and modifiable algorithms that serve to make moneymove faster through the economy, achieving higher money mutliplier benefits, greater shared responsibility, most appropriate actions, and meet arising needs in the economy quickly.   Meeting or alleviating short falls that routinely occur in somewhat predictable patterns in the world.   Working to achieve accounting policies that recognize satisfaction and happiness that is delivered in environmentally friendly way.  Fighting unmoral behavior of abusive parties.  Supporting honest randomness, achieving appropriate influence, and sustainability goals around the world.  Serving to recognize the benefits of honesty, good will, etc.   Possible greatly increasing the long term health of the world.   

   Supported by policies that embrace hard work, saving, putting idle capacities to use, minimum standards, technology, liquid public markets, increasing efficiencies, thoughtful judgements, human standards, and environmental standards.  Serving in part to achieve functioning by sharingtechnology and recognizing idle capacities maintenance for needs in the future.  Recognizing the losses of long time contributors to the economy.  that will increase productivity, recognize intrinsic contributions, and happiness.  Show awareness for the importance of funding projects that reduce the environmental impact of corporations.  Realize that life presents complex challenges that only increases in the use of accessible innovation can meet the long term needs of the world.  Minimizing risks and proactively working to meet challenges.  Raising standards around the world in a productive way.  

      

Even reducing the capabilities of fraudulent enterprises, promoting security, hope, debt payments, random acts of kindness, and a system that meets all needs and wants most efficiently.  Serving to continue to strive to take advantage of a basic principle of evolution and technology gains doing more with less.

Entertainment purposes,

July 28, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas, Serious Subjects that need public exposure, Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | Leave a comment

Larry Kudlow wants to be positive on the market, In July 2008 Larry said, “Short Oil, and Drill – Drill solutions!”

 Larry Kudlow of CNBC is looking for tax cuts.  Larry likes goldilocks economy – not to hot; not to cold.  on every evening at 5 p.m eastern time.   I hope to catch a show soon Larry.  At my last update Larry wanted to believe in a summer rally.   (Monday July 28th 2008)  Carley Furino “called for a depression if Barack Obama is elected.”   A stark contrast to the tremendous success Barrack’s recent visit with world leaders brought to aligning world interests in sensible ways.  Mad Money’s Jim Cramer talked about a news conference disclosing SEC policy enforcement of Short Selling rules already on the books to protect Americans, and he assumes the rest of the people of the world.    

 

Entertainment Purposes,

July 28, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Online Conference made easy at Gotomeeting.com

Watching CNBC television this morning I learned about an on line meeting service offered over the internet on  a  fun commercial. The service offers unlimited meetings for a flat fee monthly of $50. and The commercial sited saving gas, reduced commute time, and increasing productivity of your organization. as reasons to check out the service at  Gotomeeting.com.  Saving time is of great importance to myself, and meeting personal repsonsiblity to cut environmental impact on the world all seem like good reasons to check out the service.  “Easy on-line meetings, any where any time.” company slogan.  Citrix is a reputable corporation running the website. 
Gotomeeting.com  enter promo code (for 30 day free trial offer): CNBC

 

Entertainment purposes,

July 23, 2008 Posted by | Personal Growth, Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , | Leave a comment

Small cap play GV. + Hurricane Stocks link from TheStreet.com

GV is an electrical/construction stock worth looking twice at for penny stock players. Particularly going into huricane season trading at or near the 52 week low. Having watched GV management for the past couple of years. Topstockblog is impressed with the quality of managements decisions. Including the landing electrical installation contracts around the nation. A market the company has been looking to break into for a while.
Recent productivity gains at GV are expecting to contribute to profits in the future. Along with other planned efficiencies gained from economies of scale at the corporation grows.
GV has completed condo units that are for sale. The development is over 50% sold and management see the condo’s as an asset in coming quarters.
The appetite for Hurricane stocks should be gearing up a little later than usual because of the recession; but, could come to life if a hurricane comes through the United States sometime in the next six months.  In fact, if several hurricanes hit or the company has gets taken over the premium could e several times the current price of around 50 cents.

Another small capitilaztion stock Topstockblog thinks could be a good investment, or trade is CGR a canadian resource play. Buying CGR.TO as an American gives a way to buy into the Canadian currency that has potential to continue to appreciate against the dollar because of it’s abundance of natural resources. Stocks traded on the Toronto Exchange are traded in Canandian dollars.  

The Street.com recently highlighted stocks worth looking at that may do well in a busy hurricane season for a trade. The downside of a hurricane stock play is, if no hurricane materializes the stock may lose value with more sellers than buyers.

Entertainment purposes,

July 21, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

UBS Bank, Liechenstein aided U.S. citizens to hide 100’s of billions of dollars from the U.S government

A disgruntled engineer working at UBS Bank sold the names of all Americans with Bank accounts in the UBS Bank located in Liechtenstein.  UBS was reported on NBC world to have committed material crimes, and may lose it’s U.S. license as a result.  The United States Senate is holding hearings accusing UBS, Liceinstein of aiding the tax cheats. Compounding this problem with other commercial papers it sold to investors that U.B.S has stopped honoring because of large losses in the value of these packaged securities.

 UBS stock looks to be headed towards zero from my perspective or at least over valued.  Wall street journal said late July 16th, 2008 that the U.S has lost $100 billion to offshore tax evasion.  A major source of revenue selling packaged securities to investors is largely dead, and UBS has begun lowering values of paper issued and not honoring the paper as it had previously.  Banks are particularly vulnerable to shut down because they lend several times the amount of money they collect in the form of loans.  Usually in the neighbor hood of 10% of assets are to be held against a banks portfolio.  When a bank commits fraud. Large and small investors usually redeem deposits creating an exponential problem for UBS Bank in this case. 

Entertainment purposes,

July 17, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , | Leave a comment

Buying time in the market!!

Stocks are possible at the bottom here Teusday 10 amish 7/01/08. JEC is my top pick as an infrastructure play. QQQQ, and SPY are probably good indexes to look to trade higher short to medium term

 

Entertainment purposes,

July 1, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Oil money will continue to flow west as predicted by George W. Bush

George W. Bush indirectly or directly went into Iraq to protect American business interests.  Iraq just opened bidding on oil production  for short term oil production.  Congratulations to the people of Iraq in moving the hard way towards good judgement as a nation. The money from Oil will help the Iraqi people financially.  Helping the people of Iraq do better financially and long term will help America make friends with Iraq in my opinion. The short run bid action is expected to give a major longer term advantage to big Western + European oil.  Iraq is already dealing with major corporations that are based in the United States.  Iraq is expected to double oil production by 2013. With Exxon, BP, and maybe even Haliburten getting a piece of the money along with over 35 others corporations from around the world.

In other news Iraq’i people are suing corporations who paid Iraq kickbacks, pharmaceutical company, and Australian exporter to get damages for millions of dollars paid in kick backs in the oil for food programs.  Violence is down in the middle east, and expected decline further as peaceful Iraqi people take control in a moderate way. 

I compare this to United States politicians being elected or fired by a responsible electoral voting public.   A voting United States public that will full fill it’s responsibility to live in a sustainable world that is responsible, and successful. Blogging on the Internet continues to fill voids where honest information can solve, and prevent real world problems

This could dent oil prices in the short run, and be very volatile over the remainder of the year responding to actual events in real time. This should build confidence in stocks; Iraqi currency, and the United States dollar. Weakness could materialize in all types of commodities as Iraq achieves mile stones in production, and an over supply of Oil could develop.

I do not give blind justice to leaders, and hope lawsuits force corporations to act thoughtfully towards people, and the environment.   Lawsuits are being filed against private contractors who tortured prisoned inmates inside Iraq. I support peace, careful communiction, sustainability, understanding, and the good judgement required to get there.

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June 30, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas, Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

33% of corn production in 2009 U.S.A predicted to go to ethanol!

In 2009 33% of the corn produced in the United States will go towards ethanol production because of the high premium paid for oil.  This is causing a short fall in production of food world wide to meet the needs of the world…hmmm. If, Humans didn’t breed like rats in conditions of poverty
I would’nt ask you to be concerned.  But, humans reproduce at a dramtically higher rate in conditions of poverty.
No more corn use as a substitute for gasoline!! This would be a start in the right direction to alleviating short falls in food around the world.   Topstockblog supports revisiting legislation supporting switch grass as a substitute for gasoline.  More incentives to find new solutions.
Carbon farming has alot of potential to solve problems of the world by taking carbon out of the air.

Entertainment purposes,

June 28, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , | 1 Comment

Stock market could tank early Monday; will it set a bottom?

The United States Stock market could tank Monday with follow through selling going on.  Hedge funds are closing.  Retirees are looking to relax.   I just don’t think life can be that easy for retirees.   I see foriegn nations like China, and Venezuela diversifying into other currencies that have higher rates of inflation.  That is a macro economic force that has potential to be disruptive.   Heavy buying in Oil as a hedge against weakness elsewhere is sure to continue.   I read a report last summer saying some mutual funds and other hedge funds had not honored redemption requests from large institutions because of market pressures.  Sure, they were right the market headed lower.  Will the market be higher, next year.   Other than Japan putting forward a car design that runs on sea water.

Interest rates have risen to well over 6%, and inflation is almost sure to continue. Inflation is where you expect to pay more for goods because of conditions like higher bills, high oil prices, profiteers looking to make piles of lute, and the continued expectation. Not, too mention alot of debt in the market would be erased. Even accrued assets can be devalued through inflation.

If some nation starts a war tomorrow maybe we can get to a bottom. Other wise I suspect any bottom set may be short lived if Oil continues to head towards $200 a barrel without a serious technology moving forward along with cooperation around the world.

Entertainment purposes,

June 23, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , | Leave a comment

Stock Market review reflecting on past trading ideas, and set ups.

Republish + Update 6/16/2008.   Good stock post covering many stocks with good notes to reflect on for stock traders who focus on BA, GD, INTC, CRM, QQQQ, XL,  YGE, UA,

UA shorting idea worked well.  UA took a big dive this week as its growth expectations                   (Saturday January 19th,  2008)

  ran into a recession.   Trade was a Cramer idea from a few weeks ago, moved with the market trend, preannounced a tough first half next year.

INTC long trade ahead of earnings was a big mistake, entered $23.15 currently at $19 exited near open at $20.   An options straddle trade both long and short the immediate earnings options would have worked.  The stock rallied on IBM’s positive pre-earnings Monday.  I rationalized with INTC having 90% of it’s earnings over-sea’s the stocks current and future earnings would have exceeded expectations.  In hinde site I gather the wide and competive coverage on the INTC the positive effect of the weak dollar had already been priced in by analysts’.   Increased doubts going forward  due to possible economic slowing around the globe caused selling leading to a lower share price .

I shorted CRM last week, and again this week.   I shorted on a mention by Cramer about the stock possible being overpriced.  Cramer from Mad Money mentioned how he thought if the stock showed any signs of slowing at earnings the stock would get taken down big. The trade off his coments did not work the first time without perfect execution.  The market did offer a tiny window to execute the trade profitable.   I  then re-entered the trade Friday as the stock was selling off when the market opened higher.  I am hoping the street is ready to take this one down. Earning should be out sometime mid February.  (exited trade near even, Company sells hope and some people like the stock here  1/23/08)

I entered into a short trade on XL late Friday.  I am around even on the trade so far.  I saw a lot of selling going on in the stock and for good reasons.  Two directors stepped down last month, and  moodies placed some of its CPDO’s fund in junk status.  The fund is a complicated derivatives trade that allowed XL to offer insurance coverage on corporate debt staying top investment grade.  Junk status indicates to me that people are likely to not get paid.  I assume these people will be paid before common shareholders. A lot of selling has gone on these past two trading days. I hope I am not too late to the party.  (rate cut will help the company find balance 1/23/08 update)

YGE long trade I backed out of quickly because the stock just became weaker.  I did exit on a bounce that softened the blow.   I’m not sure if first quarter earnings are going to be up to par; but, sure long term the company is a big winner with top technology. I think the stock currnetly priced around $25 is a good for a long trade.  Timing of the entry is what I am trying to do well provided $24 and change on Friday may have been the best spot to get in. Only time will tell .     (long trade on at $23 hoping for a big rally updated 1/23/08 3pm)

 QQQQ appears to be stabilizing as the semiconductors are acting strong.  A long trade may be called for before another shorting opportunity arises here.    (wish I had more money I would buy some 1/23/08 3pm update)

Shorting war related stocks (LMT BA, NOC, GD, COL, ATK,) posted 12pm  Thursday 1/17 /08  ***The trade is up about 1-2%. Anyone in the previous week was up 5%-10%.  All but one of the stocks is below the 20,50, and 200 day moving averages.   I was hoping ATK was a good opportunity to short.  I found a few reasons on both sides; but staying bearish on the side line because the war stocks are below the 50 and 200 day moving average.  Stocks can trend for a while.  Istill think the United states is in a bearish cycle.  The decline of activity in Iraq could slow propects for future war equipment sales.   ATK was put on credit watch negative by Fitch recently.  A stock offering posible in the works stated http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080109/alliant_techsystems_ratings.html?.v=1.   debt levels are high to meet needs to buy an information systems and aerospace business unit for 1.31 billion dollars.  http://www.reuters.com/article/tnBasicIndustries-SP/idUSN0825031520080109    The stock is oversold short term.  The deal is flat on already strong earnings for 2008, and accretive in 2009 provided no unforseen cutbacks by the government. The company has state of the art technology.  Possible short term catylsts could be a market moves, breaking out of war, government cut backs, and or election promises.

I will update.

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June 16, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

New Drug prevents return of cancer in study by NVS

Novartis (NVS) a large pharmecuetical corporation has just published a study showing a drug in the pipeline has much promise! Zomata the drug in focus helps to re-build bones in cancer patients and newly published data shows the drug significantly reduced the return of cancer in a younger womans’ breast cancer patients. (NVS)

Entertainment purposes only, Help others, and add value!

June 1, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , | Leave a comment

Stop funding for the Iraq war and support peaceful solutions!

Time to get out of Iraq.   The war needs to end!   This petition allows you to send a notice to your three representatives in government in a few minutes.  Barrack Obama’s 2010 withdrawal plan is sensible.

http://www.democrats.com/peoplesemailnetwork/136

Iraqi citiznens and the people around the world can support Iraqi journalists and the Iraqi people by viewing an Iraqi website posted by a blogger.  washingtonbureau.typepad.com/iraq/

The United States Government is set up with controls to ensure the will of the people is heard and honest solutions are achieved.  The government issues daily realeases from the government.  Topstockblog encourages it’s readers to support good judgement and freingly solutions.

Entertainment, and education,

May 28, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas, Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , | Leave a comment

NVTL looks like a good trade

Buying Novatel Wireless (NVTL) is a solid trade in my opinion. NVTL is a stock that has historically traded in a range. Recently the stock hit the low end of its range $7-8. NVTL historically moves higher gradually after hitting the low end of it’s trading range.

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May 28, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Link to Forex currency trading website with free tools and information

This website looked like a good place to get started learning about global exchanges for different countries around the globe.  I hope to learn more about forex opportunities.  I liked the articles on the bottom discussing specific currencies.
http://www.forextradersworld.com/index.php

Another forex website

Click Here!

 

Entertainment purposes only,

May 15, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Link to T. Boone Pickens interview on Oil

(Update July 23rd, 2008) T. Boone Pickens a billionaire oil man has a self paid comercial running on CNBC calling for America to get off oil as soon as possible with Wind and Solar power combined with energy saving technology, and changing behavior.  Serious challenge of our century.

(Original post May 14th) Surfing the net and I found an interesting interview. KirkReport.com a reputable stock market website often display many links to market related stories from other reputable stock market websites.

T. Boone Pickens has liked oil in the past, and I can’t wait to check out his current view point on oil.

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2008/05/09/great_t_boone_p.html

May 14, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Crox looks to be a great buy under $11

(update 7/11/08 – just bought a pair of crox – very comfortable, and the corporation continues to pick up shelf space in retailers. Two types of material in crox shoes – one very comfortable – other much cheaper + less comfortable. Management will have some tough choices moving forward as far as profits are concerned; higher quality – lower short term profit, lower quality – higher short term profits. It is clear cheap plastic will not be on everyone’s feet next summer; but, high quality will certainly be part of the future. I will definatlely be keeping an eye on product quality when shaping future opinions on CROX shoes)
—— end update—-
Crox footwear company has had to anounce some bad earnings recently.  I do believe this has brought the stock back to an entry that can deliver 100% plus returns over the couple of years if Crox was not a fad or was a fad but its efforts to diversify into other products customers like will stick.  Crox just signed a new vice president with 15 years experience working with Nike, and Under Armour respectively.
I did see a phone for sale at verizon packed in a Crox shoe.  They have gained shelf space in major retailers, and can hit a homerun if they can catch another fad.  I like that they partnered with Disney.   That should have a positive impact on sales around the world.  Crox is a beaten down company that I liked over $20 and some liked it over $60.  AT $10 it looks a great deal from where I sit.

The log consolidation pattern Crox is in builds my confidence that Crox will be a long term winner with it’s world wide focus.

May 2, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Mad Money Cramer education how to trade.

Mad Money’s Jim Cramer is a valueable educator hard at work to help the average investor and shed light on the investing world.  With out sun light nothing grows or prospers.   I really liked  some tips he gave on how to spot a bottom in the market.  Including  ocilator technical over sold indicater above 5 being an important measure in marking a bottom or the  VIX going over or at 30.” This is the point he believes a good investor should be sticking his toe in the water.  He said to “Buy  something at this point in a sell off  in-spite of the pain.  Play the cycle.  People are playing games with emotions.  Be careful. 

With the bottom set in february possible the stock market cycle is bullish.  I bought CFC amd sold it with a small profit.   I thought Google was a short sale; but, Google is a bull market stock going higher.  I would put a $725 Target off the top of my head on Google stock within 12 months.  Larry Kudlow of CNBC should be careful of accusing George Soroes and Bill Gates of being anti Capitalism.

http://www.thestreet.com/video/index.html?clipId=10400031&channel=Cramer+On+Demand&cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=&cm_ite=#1380790674

 

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April 24, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Tough market, Dividend Stocks.

 

The stock market is too hard for the average person to endure.  Dysfunctional up and down swings have made me walk away from trading with a short bankroll.  In the sprit of Good things go full circle here is a list of stocks Jim Cramer from Mad Money likes because of the 6% plus dividend stocks to grow your money.  Cramer recomends using a 401k plan to compound the dividends that other wise would be taxed as normal income.

  1. WWE
  2. HCP
  3. DOW
  4. CPL
  5. PBT

Entertainment purposes only

April 7, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | Leave a comment

UNH BSC and S acting like stocks going much lower.

UNH ( 3/11/08) – is acting very poorly after a competitor well point missed earnings and cited lower margins going forwards, payment reimbursement difficulties, and a weak economy among problems. Being a voting year, many losers in health care management are possible.  Including lack of funding available for public health care programs going out of business.

BSC – was reported by Charlie Gaspirino on CNBC to have been in all parts of the mortgage process from origination, to packaging, and trading mortgage loans.  Then using funds to back other loans with Hedge funds that have blown up.   Lack of faith in BSC managements judgement is said to compound this problem.

S – is operating with negative leverage as it loses it’s base of customers because of significant problems.  ATT and VZ are taking market share with no end in sight.  Costs of operating all aspect of a cell phone business have large fixed costs, and a declining revenue base is impossible to over come.  

March 11, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Trading entry thought

I found a nice article on yahoo about trading successfully.  http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/080304/16825.html?.v=4  Waiting for blood in the water so to speak is the best thing I took from it.  I need to wait until a stock is at a good entry point.  Not get carried away with momentum.  I can’t be getting out of a losing trade because I bought in good times, and now sell when it is my blood in the water.  If I do not get good entries, my stop loss will force me out of my trade when the stock goes back towards the mean.   The article also mentioned fear, and hope as the leading emotion behind trades.  So simple wait for the stock to get beat up that I like, then make my move might work.

March 5, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | Leave a comment

Bored trading, long day

lately every day has been long, and hard to stay focused.   The market seems to like to drive people crazy.  I though CNBC was my problem.   I think it is trading in general that drives people crazy.   I am going to persevere, and attempt to learn from my experience.  Good luck to any one that pursues the course of day trading.  We are going to need it.  

March 4, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | Leave a comment

To short GIFI ahead of earnings or not?

Stock has low volume. GIFI a small company that focuses on oil rig repairs, boat repairs, and other related industrial repairs.  Because of the small size of the company I would think margins would fall along with business being focused on the United States.  The stock has run up a touch. The stock has missed earning two of the last four quarters.  Tempting; but, I think I am going to stick with my rule of avoiding the thinly traded.  (update 3/3/08  many oil companies are modifying old rigs to meet needs rather because abandonment costs are high. This should benefit GIFI going forward.

Entertainment purposes,

February 27, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , | Leave a comment

Why some investors consistently lose

I have been a losing trader going on a decade.   I still am in the game and trying to beat it.  I think I may have had a realization today that will enable me to be a better trader.   I have worked hard, and traded successfully for short periods of time.   Many of my ideas work; but,  I get snagged sooner or later on some stock idea that doesn’t work.  Being stubborn and overly aggressive on a trade.   Simple as that.  No trading method is going to be easy to follow; but, analysis of the past makes it easy to see how my experience of losing won’t stop with out change.  Except smaller returns in exchange for long term success.   Here is my analogy.  If you bet everything you have on a likely event; even if the even happens almost every time I will eventually go broke; despite how often I am successful. 

1. Don’t invest more than you position size limits on a trade

2. Do not violate this rule

3. Set a maximum position size to limit exposure to a trade

4.  Making one entry at current price and another with price improvement seems to meet my impatience and needs in a successful way.  Work to use patience to get price improvement improving results of trading on the first entry.

5. Be aware I am very vulnerable to falling in the trap of over investing by my nature and need to follow these rules.

February 25, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | Leave a comment

Taking a break or quit trading stocks?

Never fun to ask yourself that question.  None the less I am confronted with the question as I no longer feel comfortable or able to support my self trading on a short bankroll. 

I traded short term call and put options over the past month and half. QQQQ, RTH, CRM, TGT, CFC, UNH, YGE   I had a real good run over loading on one option contracts. I was able to diversify a few times. I tried to use delta neutral strategies.  I found it too frustrating.   Using options it’s always a race against time.   Profits may be still available at times.  I will have to take a break and reflect on everything.  Just not sure I can do it. I did make a few dollars trading. Thank you mr. market.   Trading stocks in perfect setups seem to work.  Trades that focus on chart patterns did well.  Buyers often enter when you think they wouldn’t.   I was happy about turning off CNBC during trading hours. Never really missed it.  I did well on the way down in January when the market tanked and then gave the money back in four days with this recent up tick caught me short and stubborn.   I see why investors focus on a list of predefined stocks to follow.  I just don’t know if I have the patience to do that.    The successful traders focus on a group of stocks that they are comfortable with in some fashion.      I enjoyed parts of my experience, and happy to leave some behind.   Best of luck.

February 14, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , | Leave a comment

UNH health care.

(Update 7/23/08 ) – UNH has weathered most of the fruad charges against it, and continues to pay out as little as possible to health care members. Profit margins should be boosted by greed, and inappropriate influence of health care corporations into elections. Society is not speaking up, and I imagine UNH as a possible long trade if congress people do not demand better coverage, and higher reimbursement rates. Bullish as a trade on any weakness further weakness. I would prefer to be long into UNH near term earnings anouncements. ) end update —
( 02/25/2008) UNH has systematically defrauded it customers and the ultimatley the people of the United States.  UNH should not be allowed to focus on isolated customers to over charge them. New York Attorney general goes after UNH after six month probe.  http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b889EB25E-F08F-49AC-AA67-1465E44B9300%  7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo    

   Proper utlization of human resources meaning active education and cooperation combined with technology and infrastructure in place without abusive elements would deliver the most efficient medical treatment care system. 

   Michael Moore has done a film on his thoughts about the inappropriate profiteering health insurance corporations carry out. In my opinion they have abused their trust when patient recieved care outside of the network or avoided treatment becuase of fear of costs.   Society can provide honest available medical care, and can work with other nations to share benefits.   I was recently reading some bible passages online trying to learn more about the contents.   I take from all the births and human relations in the book over generations we all have shared interest past and future.  Gods is with all of us and in everything. 

– Cramer likes UNH and see’s the stock as incredible cheap, I see investors putting money to work in UNH.  Stock could trade higher )

( update 10 am. On the UNH trade I should try to focus on my timing better.  I gave it a shot.  Still have about 8 hours for mr. market to wake up and price this stock lower because the Government should be able to crush the profit the one thing UNH had going for it the manipulation of health care costs.   I entered the trade when the stock was trading jut over $46.  I had seen the lower print and the fraud charges.  Then I pulled the trigger at .35 cent 2/15/08 45 puts in the heat of the moment yesterday. I closed out the positions It was  an out of the money trade trying to hit a home run.  Good chance after reading about it as a manipulation trade ahead of the news.  Big money stands to hedge the stock here while it continually repositions.  It is an election year.  The march 45’s look tempting.  

 entertainments purposes only, 

A bible passage –  

“Thus the total number of generations from Abraham to David is fourteen generations; from David to the Babylonian exile, fourteen generations; from the Babylonian exile to the Messiah, fourteen generations. 5 ”  Mathew summary,

18
6 Now this is how the birth of Jesus Christ came about. When his mother Mary was betrothed to Joseph, 7 but before they lived together, she was found with child through the holy Spirit.
19
Joseph her husband, since he was a righteous man, 8 yet unwilling to expose her to shame, decided to divorce her quietly.
20
Such was his intention when, behold, the angel of the Lord 9 appeared to him in a dream and said, “Joseph, son of David, do not be afraid to take Mary your wife into your home. For it is through the holy Spirit that this child has been conceived in her.
21
She will bear a son and you are to name him Jesus, 10 because he will save his people from their sins.”
22
All this took place to fulfill what the Lord had said through the prophet:
23
11 “Behold, the virgin shall be with child and bear a son, and they shall name him Emmanuel,” which means “God is with us.”
24
When Joseph awoke, he did as the angel of the Lord had commanded him and took his wife into his home.
25
He had no relations with her until she bore a son, 12 and he named him Jesus

February 14, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas, Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Check out the option addict website

The option addict is a website I recently started visiting and am impressed with the quality of stock market information and video’s  the author uses.  He was bullish going into the week and made a very good call that is well explained in a video he released before the week started calling for a rally in specific stocks. Check it out  http://www.optionaddict.net/  I have added it to the blog roll of sites I like to review to stay on top of market developments.

February 13, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Getting in and out of trades in steps

Trading in steps and with set unit sizes has the benefit of reducing and spreading risk.  Timing is key to successful trading.  Emotions pushed by algorythms of trades without timing and position size controls will be impossible to win. Manipulation is a fair comment.   Work needs to be done to improve liquidity, and accuracy of markets. If you account for adjustment that experience makes me understand as necessary to create alpha in  the market.  Minds can only process a few thoughts at a time.  By spreading out the buys, and increasing adjustments to trades with good judgement is my plan led to from my experience.   Max two transactions per day.

February 12, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | Leave a comment

New accounting rules and interpretations are said to boost stocks

Pretty questionable stuff; but,  possible effective.    Real estate investment trusts now report using FFO measure regularly.   That takes out the non-cash charge for depreciation.  Here is a report from AVB using the term with regularity.  I have noticed this in all REIT earnings calls.  http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN0632078220080206?rpc=44

Banks have recently been allowed to take mortgages off balance sheets to meet lending standards to make new loans. ( I stand corrected,  with further research I found banks and other financial institutions have been using this practice for a long time with regularity making it impossible to figure how bad things could get http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/BanksDarkOffBalanceSheetWorld.aspx )   Not good.   This make a lot of sense why bond markets have dried up.   People have no idea how over leveraged banks are because of home loans, and corporate buy outs.  I take from this the buyout market is dead and not coming back any time soon.  That takes a big up side catalyst out of the market.

Builders are writing off the values of land currently in earnings.   This is said to have a positive effect later if the values go up on these lands it will boost earnings.  Builder DHI talked about being able to raise a billion dollars in free cash flow this year.  Wow!  One could make an argument for a higher price on the stock with cash flow like that.   http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dr-horton-swings-loss-builders/story.aspx?guid=%7B8DF49C4D%2D6BAE%2D4CF3%2D8D3F%2D7FA1406E5F27%7D&siteid=yhoof

A reinterpretation of how stocks are valued could be a big positive for the market.   This has to be balanced out  with the other side of the argument about a slower economy.   I remember when they changed dot.com accounting interpretations.  That led to a big crash.  More volatility ahead.   One comment that is hard to argue against that people use is how good is your own situation.  People do tend to have a harder time finding weakness when they look at how good their own personal situation is.

entertainment purposes only

February 7, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bear market, Dead cat bounce

 

Dead cat bounce is a bounce off oversold conditions similar to the old addage even a dead cat bounces off the ground before it returns to the ground from a large fall.  Jim Cramer cited this evening that determining the bottom in a bear market is near impossible and the bottom in the market is far from over.  Specifically caused by the redemption of mutual fund holders, and hedge funds getting crushed as commodity prices have crashed in a short period of time causing further redemption of assets in the markets to settle debts. Dead cat bounce is an unsustainable rally that fads.  Who is buying here?   Warren Buffet said the dollar may be worthless in five years yesterday

02/27/2008.  http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/warren-buffett-says-us-dollar/story.aspx?guid=%7B50CE458A-3BB1-4934-83B1-FB368B0FCD66%7D   Tech giant Cisco with drew guidance for the year.  Then made comments abouts its ability to change with the times. What? I thought they were a telecom fiber expansion play.   Google never has given guidance.  Google markets crap on the internet and people are catching on.  I could see foreign nations not allowing the sale of crap to their people.  Google has taken initiative to improve the quality of products offered.  Oil giant Shell issued some disturbing news that is could not deliver oil promised to the market becuase of security reasons and what it called sabotage of it’s pipelines in Africa.  http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/shell-declares-force-majeure-nigeria/story.aspx?guid=%7B4AC5EFC0-BDD8-4285-869D-5EABB71CB43F%7D  I think the educated trader just sells the market higher every time it goes up.  The investor takes his profits.  I don’t know who would be a buyer in this market.  

Jim Cramer said the bottom is in.  Of course Jim like any nimble trader or the market me can change his opinion at quickly.  He likes Brazilian stocks.  like AMX and PBR  (update 2/7/08) 

So,  lets take a look at his argument.    Companies are trimming expenses and valued at a lower multiple than a few months ago.   Going forward this makes stock investment more attractive.   Corporations believe the 2nd half of 2008 and 2009 will be good for earnings.   The stock market being a forward looking indicator may dictate the bottom is in.  The vix hit 29 recently.  Meaning stocks volaltility is peaking and may have change directions.    Investors are flush with cash and certainly not going down with out a fight.   Just have to see what plays out.   AAPL  and other stocks may be a bargain here.

entertainment purposes only

February 7, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Extremely Bearish on the market

The stock market will crash in my opinion.  I would play it with a short in RTH, XLF and or SPY.  The market system is broken and not working in my opinion.   Service sector contracted to a reading of 44.6 while analysts estimates were at 53.  That is a serious miscalculation.  http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080205/wall_street.html .  Any reading under 50 indicates recesion or bearish indicator about the economy.  So service sector America seems to be hitting a rough patch.  Lay off the service employees when things get tight and continue business as usual.  Markets no longer crash because the fed cuts rates, doesn’t pay it’s debts, and buy stocks when they go lower.  Gotcha capitalism is another article on yahoo this morning.  http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/01/04/gotcha_capitalism/  Looks like yahoo pulled the story; but, I found something to show I am not making this stuff up.  Must of aggravated a few too many corporations using gotcha capitalism.   As in put you on hold until you hang up. Charge you fees when you aren’t looking, and get over on you any way they can.  

   A bidder for Norther Rock has pulled out of it’s bid to save the troubled bank. Corporations  true colors come through as they bid for corporations using loans and then back out when they can’t make a profit          http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/02/05/cnrock105.xml 

  I have plenty of loans I would like to back out of.   I’m tired of the government lending money to business’s to get over on me.  Tired of the government paying interest on money that is doing nothing.   Given the world has limited resources and humans are committed to racing to consume all of them.  Interest on idle money needs to be reduced and eliminated as the return on capital reduces.   There are answers and money can retain value; but, manipulation makes the problem worse in the end.   The unfolding of this may take 5 minutes or 10 years; but, it is better to find real solutions early to avoid disruptions. 

 We have large problems antagonizing other nations and not looking for common ground.  We cut are health care standards and military expendutures are out of control.  You can’t call people your enemy and fight wars to solve problems.     Honesty and understanding will always be the solution to problems.   The United States continues to persist that China, Iran, North Korea, Russia and others pos threats to our nation.  That is a losing strategy.  All people have to be our friends.

 Cutting taxes with government partnerships  https://topstockblog.wordpress.com/2008/01/23/lower-taxes-and-government-partnerships-with-corporations-and-people-best-for-economy-funded-with-tax-credits/ 

Standards to demand from you elected officials and new president  https://topstockblog.wordpress.com/2008/02/04/standards-i-am-looking-for-in-a-new-president-and-all-people-elected-to-office/

entertainment purposes only

February 5, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

How often does the market offer tradable opportunities?

The market occasionally becomes miss priced.  Using good judgement you may be able to make trades with an above average chance for success.  As a small investor I am trying push smaller advantages. I have learned to modify my expectation for success in stocks to find some success.   I have taken notice of how often successful traders have their money in cash.   Most successful traders keep their money largely in cash. Waiting for the opportunities to make good trading decisions.  I read an interesting article of a large investment trading fund that found only two days all of last year to make trades.  http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm   Going to have to work on my patience and education to find success.

entertainment purposes only

February 4, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Changing your mind after buying/selling a stock.

Many times I make trades into stocks that I don’t have complete understanding of to chase an opportunity.  Taking  a stab with an educated perspective looking for a stock to move favorable higher or lower.   After putting on the position  I continue to further investigate the trade.  Sometimes I like what I find and other times I realize I missed part of the story.  That does not mean my trade won’t work; but, does mean I should adjust my exit  strategy to meet what reality is offering me or may offer me.  Adjusting your trades to what is actually going on in the market has been very helpful.   Don’t be afraid to change your mind.  Be flexible and change your mind as your understanding of reality changes.

    Most traders only deal with a list of stocks they fully understand to avoid this problem.  Many analysts only follow one stock or a few stocks so they can be up to date on all the developments in a stock and the surrounding industry. 

 Understanding of ones self will always be an important part of trading successfully.  I personally live to find the next big idea or trend in any exciting story.  I get too emotional and quick to forget the past.  To deal with this I continually work on my trades.  Go over my rules for trading.  Try hard to resist being overly aggressive. I created this Blog to help myself work on my trading ability.   I had to turn off CNBC during trading hours because of the typically manipulation you find in any for profit enterprise.   I had resisted the idea of not watching CNBC from the first time I heard about being more successful with the t.v off than on.   My experience watching, and with out lead me to believe for the time being I am better off with out it.  I changed my mind on my short position on Google  or at least realized most of the profit in the trade may be gone.   I was able to exit this morning with a profit.   GOOG will probably stagnate here and the move higher over time.  

entertainment purposes only

February 4, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Shorting ETF’s from SeekingAlpha.com, Great website for stock market information

Seeking Alpha is a great website.  The site has lots of traders offering quality stock market information.   I just read an article thats answers alot of questions about shorting stocks.  The article suggest shorting QQQQ and SPY ETF’s if you were goign to try and short a stock.  I found the article very helpful.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/61431-shorting-etfs-goodbye-to-the-old-risks?source=d_email

January 27, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Whats on sale in the stock market?

(Update July 11th 2008)  The market appears to be oversold.    Topstock blog recomended shoring XL and others stocks six months ago.  The corporations that can survive this down turn may become buying canidates.  I am liking XL an insurance stock with alot of assets and cash.  XL will pay out a dividend of over 7% with XL plummetting in value over the last year.  

I believe the market is trying to get where ever it needs to quickly, and the Fed’s leader Bernanke is very aware of what is going on.  Some assets were overpriced forward looking.  Sustainability and surrounding morality issues are in my mind.   A few stocks are tempting at current prices. I might buy CALM because it is oversold, starting to act well, and my favorite sustainable growth story.  CMED and YGE look tempting to buy particularly with China’s sell off Monday.   All stocks may open lower making for a good entry point. Things in the world are getting more tricky with the sell off over seas.  Trying to be careful.   I wish I could of got into GS at $187 this past summer.  $187 for GS now looks not as tempting.   Too many people still want to buy into this market from my bear market point of view for stocks to stop declining. 

On the other hand  corporate America is healthy and stocks could rally when the Fed cuts rates.  I just read an article from Ben Stein about the market not being a bad time to invest.  http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/62337;_ylt=ApROSGTguIHTte4UKci.aqa7YWsA  Overseas markets are getting hit hard Monday on fears about the recession in the United States. U.S. markets are closed in honor of Martin Luther King.   

Mcdermitt  (MDR) a top infrastructure builder around the world looks to be a good value around current prices.  Apple (AAPL) showed off a new micro laptop at Macworld.  I thought it could becom the next big hit in a few years if they could get the price affordable for average consumers.

January 21, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Shorting opportunity in XL

(Update July 11th, 2008)  XL shorting trade worked out well.  That being said the market maker looks to be holding inventory in the low 20’s and may move the stock higher out of this double bottom at least in the short run until more clarity over the future business prospects of XL are more clearly stated in upcoming earnings reports. )

XL is an insurance company that had some of its debt cut to junk on Wednesday by Moodies.            Friday  Jan 18th,   2008    3:30 pm

Last month an article said this would be disastrous for the company when they were put on watch by Fitch as two chairman stepped down.   The company has exposure to homeowners insurance among many other problems areas of the insurance business model.  The company should have a hard time going forward.  The limited time this company has had in the spot light over its exposure to the housing market indicates to me an opportunity to short unexploited.  Company breaking out lower of a consolidation pattern.      The argument against this trade is the company has alot of cash, earnings, and assets to offset the losses.   Earning come out in early February and  I hope will put a big dent in the share price. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN1627979520080116?rpc=44

  http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071228/xl_capital_chairman.html?.v=1

entertainment purposes only

January 18, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Past thoughts on CRM

 

(January 18th, 2008 –  CRM is trading lower this morning, and I think it may be the beginning of a big move lower.   Friday  January 18th, 2008      10:30 am

  I must say thank you Cramer from Mad Money for the UA information last weak that helped me make the move to short the stock.  I lost a little shorting CRM last week another Mad Money stock from Cramer about possibility of sell off.  Today the market seems to be positioned to take the stock lower when the market is open.  CRM has very little earnings;not good in my opinion.  Growth expectations to high for slow or bear market based on principles of doing more with less.  The competition is coming from all angles.  It is just too easy to duplicate customer management software.   Good customer service, followed up witha letter, and a couple of phone calls over the next year is not worth billions of dollars.  Not saying that’s all CRM does; but, you get the point.   INTUjust entered the market with a simple customer support  service that customers can call to get help.   The article pointed out other competitors CNQR , INTU, OMTR,TLEO,SFSF,N,PAYX.  It also mentioned GOOG in the article not as a competitor; but, as a source of new business for the sector.  I can see GOOG is looking to grow to move into the sector with the low barriers to entry.  Google has good street cred as Cramer would say when it comes to delivering a friendly product that makes investors mullah. –Some adlib–

   Pricing pressure in customer management from advertising or lack ther of.   To other anticipated slow downs that can hurt. , business cutbacks,  and churn should all erode CRM’s future hopes.  At least that my opinion.   http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/17/saas-recession-concur-tech-enter-cx_sm_0118saas.html?partner=yahootix

            Entertainment and Education purposes,  Edit, Update, Cite Sources, and Help Others.

January 18, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Freezing up, long INTC ahead of earnings

Wow!                   Monday  4 pm 1/14/2008

I sure have had a hard time pulling the trigger lately.  That feeling of freezing up has passed through me most days.  It happened a few times to my benefit last week.   I’m still carrying a lot more risk than appropriate.   I certainly don’t have the cure for freezing up (since admitted trading is not for me).  I remember reading if you are going to be successful you have to trade in the day-trading industry.  This may be true at times; but, the market has shed many hopes and jobs over it’s history.    Predefined trades were a mentioned remedy.  In my opinion it is helpful to set a stop loss up beforehand with a profit target (a set price to get out at).   My timing was rarely in touch with the market. Well that didn’t work out.  It appears as long as wall-street takes write off and has oversea’s exposure they may do very well.    Provided we can make friends in the world.   I say we work to improve the worlds poorest by giving them all chickens, lambs, and plant-able crops.  Might be better than using guns and bombs.   Went long INTC ahead of earnings with 90% of their revenue occurring over seas.

 I since pulled the trigger and moved into INTC ahead of their earning tomorrow.   INTC gets 90% of their earnings overseas and I think this will be a big plus in the earnings report and send a lot of money into the stock.  The trade did not work as the market looked forward INTC reality coordinated with the world slowdown.  Another lesson from the books everything goes down in a bear market; even the leaders.

Entertainment, and education.

January 14, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market maker thoughts on figuring his position

Update (6/15/2008)  The market maker has a wicked control on the market, and should show good profits as GS reports this week along with private firms like Scottrade Securities.)  Market moves with conviction, and revaluation as we find real terms.  I still think beer first, get high 2nd, and lover; then kiss your neighbor if he wants peace; kill your neighbor if he wants war!

At the bottom or top of any market their are lots of sellers (at the bottom) and lots of buyers (at the top) so the market maker is taking the other side of the market and it is in his interest when things get to an extream in any time frame to  go the other way of trader psychology. 

 

 

In the shortest of time frames the market maker is on the other side of any trade that is placed when he can not match orders for a buyer, and seller.   The computer algorithm or market maker is in charge of setting a buy, and sell price for the market regardless if there is a buyer or a seller.   If someone makes a block trade larger than the size of the market you will often see the stock make a print that is outside the offered bid and ask.  Well now you know someone has made a transaction for that amount of shares on the buy side if it was higher, and on the sell side if it was lower.  The market maker has made a deal to take on a larger transaction  at slight discount or premium to the market.  

A successful openings only strategy I learned from Bright Trading is buying or selling major stocks on the New York stock exchange when a stock gaps open outside of a normal trading range.  You could use this strategy on any market; but, Bright felt the other markets were two unpredictable.  Say MER gaps opens 5% higher tomorrow in the morning you could short the stock, and have a trade with a positive expectation.  In theory going on the side of the market maker (the specialist as they call it).  If it gapped lower they would go long the stock looking to exit the trade with in thirty minutes to gain a small amount of money.  In theory the market maker has  alot more buys than sells  at the open on a gap higher so naturally it is in the market makers interest if those people leave the trade with a loss, and if he has other people taking the other side of the trade.  So routinley the stock will trend back towards the mean at least for a quick time to exit with a profit.

 

January 11, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Balancing Emotions of trading

Balancing my emotions is trading stock is one of the hardest things I personally have had to do.   Balanced emotions are necessary to make good investment or trading decisions.  As the market rallies, and I sit short in my positions that I am losing a lot of money in.  I find my self smiling writing this article.  Hardly the way I felt when I was very nervous about the long position I had a call option yesterday that I worried all night about. Wish I held on to that.  What I take away from that is that I have a negative bias on the market even if that makes me wrong.  I feel more stressed out when I have a long position in the market.  Part of me to be honest is afraid of some sort of a disaster in the world and finds it easier to see the argument for the down side in the market.  Needless to say this feeling needs to be put in check. 

Asking myself a simple question is also helpful.  Which direction would I be if I was the market maker. Is his trade accounting buys against sells   likely balanced or way out of wack.    The market maker is the one guy that can’t lose or the market would not operate.  In recent times I have seen a market that feels like it could fall apart.   Just because the markets are automated doesn’t mean the system can lose money.   So trades will usually go the opposite direction of the emotions of the average trader.   Am I acted opposite of Joe investor? or am I acting like Joe investor?  If acting as opposite Joe investor I probably should have more confidence if I have come up with the trade for good fundamental/technical tools that brought me to take a chance.  On the other hand if I am on the same side of average Joe investor.  i.e. I felt like selling when the market was down this morning becuase the bank of England held rates steady to fight inflation.   I should have felt more confident with my long position.    I should reflect to the reasons I entered the trade, realize the market should move higher because by this point in the sell off everyone is selling and the market maker can’t lose money.  The market maker needs to at least get closer to even on his buys and sells. That’s why markets peak, and bottom when everyone is buying or selling.  The market maker has the biggest advantage at this point if things go the opposite direction.  To do this he must drive the others out of their positions.   So maybe I cracked the alogorythm of the automated market maker.  Good luck balancing your emotions.   Much of the market volatility can be expected as the market maker moves the market to keep his trades balanced.  Here are five (okay eight) quick ideas I am going to try to follow.

1. Stay on the side of the market maker.  Be aware of who the buyers and sellers are in a stocks

2. Only enter the best trades.

3. Be patient.

4. Limit position sizes to an amount I am comfortable losing.

5. Review the risk reward of a trade before making it. 

6.  Use bollinger bands (moving average trading range).

7.  Be more balanced to the fact that the market is priced to all known information.   The future is unknown.    

8.  Reading other intelligent stock trading blogs (Kirk report a top blog) and books.  CNBC seems to be overly biased at times to boost television ratings.

  9.  Work hard, and continue to review my material to make good decisions

January 10, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Stock buying tips for the novice and new investors

Quick Rules to help novice investors and or any one looking to improve their chances for financial success.    

1. Figure out and write down your objectives for investing in the stock market.  Now come up with a short term plan to achieve your goal, and set up a date to review your plans, and make adjustments.  Realistic time frames to make money in the stock market are much longer than I had initially hoped.    Being too aggressive will probably cause you to lose money in the short and long term.  So try to expand your time horizons for making money to longer time frames, and lower you expectation for the amount of money you would like to maket.  Staying in the invetsing game is most important to expanding your chances of being financially successful in the market. 

2. Consider trading exchange traded funds (ETFs).  ETFs funds are highly liquid.  They often can be traded with less stress because you have alot more buyers, and sellers trading.  This keeps ETF’s proportionately more liquid than the underlying stocks held in the ETF fund.  I am currently trading the Nasdaq Power shares QQQQ options.  This market is very liquid and can be very profitable.  the market is most competively priced to perfection 

2. Focus on buying the best stocks that have a history of revenue and or earnings growth, and predictions for revenue growth in the future. The first two stocks I ever purchased went to zero.  Don’t buy something just because you can affford it.  Buy something becuase it is the best value for what you can afford, and balance this with your time frame goals for investing.  Many of the highest growth stocks have hi price tags that are designed to turn away the novice investors.  Better to buy less shares of a high quality stock than a lot of shares of a stock that may have problems they can not overcome like getting financing or growing its customer base.

3. Sell stocks that have revenue declines, and or no earnings.  A stock that has no growth and or revenues are avoided by intelligent investors. This usually leads to a stock being flat or declining in value over time. Be wary of stocks traded on off beat stock exchanges because they often are unrealistically optimisitic about the future and some may be dishonest in their press releases.

4. Define a list of stocks you would like to watch looking for attractive entry prices, and new devlopments.  Continue to learn and keep track of these stocks. 

5. Buy stocks above the 50 day moving average. This shows the stock is trending higher over time.  You can buy a stock on a retracement to the 10 ,20, or 50 day moving average if it is currently trading way above its 50 day moving average.  This will help you from should help you to avoid some of the noise in the market and use good fundamentals to support your chances of sucess.  You can make adjustment in purchasing price depending on how hard you believe it may be to find an entry into what you may hope to be a sky rocketing stock.

6. Make value entries when strong stocks are oversold.  This is when a stock is believed to be oversold and will likely retrace towards the average trading price of a stock like the 50 day moving average creating a good chance to make a profitable entry point.

7. Think about who the buyers and sellers are in a particular stock are.  Is it value investors, growth investors, and or governments.  Use this knowledge to help figure if there are more buyer or sellers.  Look for articles mentioning top institutional funds investing in the stock, insider buying, and or respected people like Jim Kramer from Mad money to be recomending the stock. 

8.  Set a stop loss to exit a trade if it does not act as you had hoped.   Set a maximum percentage to lose on a trade.  Its important to get out quickly with a 5 or 10% loss to preserve your investment money for trades that work well.  Also set up a plan to exit the trade with a profit. Don’t get to gready or take profits to quickly.  I have found it helpful to sometimes sell  or buy half of a position at one price and the rest at another point.  

   

January 8, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , | Leave a comment