Topstockblog

Blogging to add value. Sharing and discussing helpful websites, money, stocks, etc.

How often does the market offer tradable opportunities?

The market occasionally becomes miss priced.  Using good judgement you may be able to make trades with an above average chance for success.  As a small investor I am trying push smaller advantages. I have learned to modify my expectation for success in stocks to find some success.   I have taken notice of how often successful traders have their money in cash.   Most successful traders keep their money largely in cash. Waiting for the opportunities to make good trading decisions.  I read an interesting article of a large investment trading fund that found only two days all of last year to make trades.  http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm   Going to have to work on my patience and education to find success.

entertainment purposes only

February 4, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Standards I am looking for in a new president and all people elected to office

Here is a list of standards I hope our new president and all elected officials will try to achieve.  Its more important to find a sustainable, and creative capitalist society with functioning markets than some sort of Feudal society with a non functioning market

Listen to all people

Represent all people

Work to achieve a clean water supply for the world going forward 

Work to ensure everyone in the world has food and shelter

Look to find common ground with all nations

Regulate all markets and enforce minimum standards that provide moral benefits

Look at the need to limit world population growth

Be honest and fair with everyone

Work hard with the interest of all people in mind

Try to find peace and security for all people

Enforce estate taxes and offer early settlement of debts to reduce disruptions to the economy  and the stock market

Use higher and lower tax rates to achieve the most sustainable society

Work more with other nations to maximize world welfare and achievement of minimum standards

Create government partnerships with corporations to be able to reduce tax rates, eliminate debts, and reduce impact of business cycles https://topstockblog.wordpress.com/2008/01/23/lower-taxes-and-government-partnerships-with-corporations-and-people-best-for-economy-funded-with-tax-credits/

Advocate and encourage public trading markets with lower taxes

 Discourage isolation and concentration of capital with higher taxes on excess wealth

Cut taxes funded with shared passive owner ship in large corporations

Act morally

Restate world goals of freedom  and respect for all

Expand the educational achievements and opportunities available to all people

Be considerate and understanding to the diverse needs of all people

Expand health care access to all people by expanding educated professionals

Invest heavily in renewable resources  to ensure affordable and available energy for all people

Prepare for the future

I think John McCain is too inflexible and committed to violence to bring lasting peace.  Romney is too greedy.  I oppose all war and realize terrorists are trying to achieve chaos through world wide human suffering, and wars waste natural resources.  I like that Barrack Obama  is the only candidate who voted against the Iraq war; but, is not afraid to change his opinion with changing understanding of reality.  I like that Barrack wants to help the middle class and less fortunate in our society.  I like that Barrack has not excepted any money from special interest groups.  I do not like that Barrack has been very unclear or lacks the ability to state how he will achieve his goals.  Hillary Clinton speaks of achieving similar solution in the future.  I don’t think rich or poor people of the world want to live in a morally unsound world that fails to manage for the future. Taxing excess profits at higher rates is a realistic solution to paying for past mistakes and short falls of tax collections to pay for are consumption.  Pure capitalism states that humans are better dealt with by ignoring their needs.  This will prove to be a disastorous situation if the world races irresponsible to over consume, no population constraints, and a lack of focus on minimizing our actions.  The government needs to bridge the gaps of what capitalism has created and where it falls short of desirable results.    Sharing world education, forgiveness, managing world populations, security, trade, and minimum standards for the world are key components of achieving a peaceful future.   I feel Hillary and Bill are most capable of finding common ground.  I would most trust a woman (Hillary Clinton)  guided by a man (Bill Clinton) to find the most rational solutions.  Barrack may be young and untested; but, ultimately be best for the nation.   The future will bring reality as we have guided it. The stock markets long term function is only in doubt with politics as usual.

February 4, 2008 Posted by | American Politics and Policy Ideas | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Short Sold FL and RTH, Retailers out look poor

Foot Locker will probably be one of the hardest hit in a recession.  Goldman Sachs cut the stock to sell mid January with a target price of $10 http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/sector_snap_athletic_footwear.html?.v=1   I was happy to find Goldman Sachs looking for a sell on the stock.  They are one of the most accurate stock pickers.  FL has bounced recently along with the RTH index and looks like it should retest it’s lows in my opinion.  I don’t see any thing that can make the shoe retailers future look bright.  New shoes are something that most people including myself will cut back on when money is tight or for lack of exciting new products. http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/15/hibbett-sport-closer-markets-equity-cx-ra-0115markets42.html?partner=yahootix  The company is in a very competitive market.  With manufacturers raising the prices on the shoes they sell and cost fixed margins will be small.  Foot Locker and retailers are put in a bad situation to deal with declining margins or sales depending on how they price the shoes on the shelves.  

On the other hand the buy side argument for FL is a small amount of insider buying,  a divident yield of 3%, and 150 store closings.  Much of the labor lay offs will be swallowed by workers rather than the corporation.  

With the market looking like it is rolling over I shorted the RTH.  The idex is in a down trend and has recently bounced higher making a good entry as fundamentals of the Retailers deteriorating.  I looked further at the components of the RTH to see what I was shorting more precisely. The largest components are listed at yahoo  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=RTH   AMZN 7%, BBY5%, COST6%,CVS6%HD11%,KR4%,LOW7%,TGT8%,WMT18%

entertainment purposes only

February 4, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bought YGE as it rallies higher

YGE a top quality solar play looks like it might be catching fire again.   The stock is up over 10% this morning. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080204/yingli_green_energy_wafers.html?.v=1  

The stock has been stagnate for a while and this sharp move higher may just be what investors have been waiting for to pour into YGE.  I wish I bought it under 20 but; I missed it.   I will be happy to catch part of the ride higher.   The Solar stocks have a lot of investors looking to profit from the environmentally friendly producers that should play a big role in the future. 

entertainment purposes only

February 4, 2008 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Changing your mind after buying/selling a stock.

Many times I make trades into stocks that I don’t have complete understanding of to chase an opportunity.  Taking  a stab with an educated perspective looking for a stock to move favorable higher or lower.   After putting on the position  I continue to further investigate the trade.  Sometimes I like what I find and other times I realize I missed part of the story.  That does not mean my trade won’t work; but, does mean I should adjust my exit  strategy to meet what reality is offering me or may offer me.  Adjusting your trades to what is actually going on in the market has been very helpful.   Don’t be afraid to change your mind.  Be flexible and change your mind as your understanding of reality changes.

    Most traders only deal with a list of stocks they fully understand to avoid this problem.  Many analysts only follow one stock or a few stocks so they can be up to date on all the developments in a stock and the surrounding industry. 

 Understanding of ones self will always be an important part of trading successfully.  I personally live to find the next big idea or trend in any exciting story.  I get too emotional and quick to forget the past.  To deal with this I continually work on my trades.  Go over my rules for trading.  Try hard to resist being overly aggressive. I created this Blog to help myself work on my trading ability.   I had to turn off CNBC during trading hours because of the typically manipulation you find in any for profit enterprise.   I had resisted the idea of not watching CNBC from the first time I heard about being more successful with the t.v off than on.   My experience watching, and with out lead me to believe for the time being I am better off with out it.  I changed my mind on my short position on Google  or at least realized most of the profit in the trade may be gone.   I was able to exit this morning with a profit.   GOOG will probably stagnate here and the move higher over time.  

entertainment purposes only

February 4, 2008 Posted by | Stock investing links, ideas, and opinions. | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment