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Staying Short CRM, and QQQQ. Most stocks look good to short here

Given the weaknees in the market, and a number of competors in the CRM (customer management software) sector this stock should tank.  I first took the idea from Jim Cramer’s Mad Money last night about  CRM stock being priced to achieve perfect earnings given they have very little earning and a stoc multiple in the 100’s.     I bought the Jan 55 option puts.  It can take a long time for big shareholders to get out in a stock and the stock has been selling off as the market trends lower.   The stock has crossed below the 50 day moving average which should bring more sellers into the picture.  Besides insiders never miss a day to sell the stock.  Check out insider sales on yahoo finance.  Automatic sales take place just about every day according to yahoo’s stats.  
 The market maker does appear to be accumulating  alot of shares and supporting the price.   
On the QQQQ trade I can’t see any reason why the index won’t go lower.   The only thing holdnig up the market here is the drug index which is the worst index of them all long term.   With so many drugs going off patten and the number of available drugs can’t support these multipes.  Personally I and about four billion people in the world are in support of socialized medicine the stocks have a large downside risk if things go any other direction than perfect adding to QQQQ’s loss.   The growth prospects in the U.S are shot.  Bulls only hope in my opinion is that Wallstreet begins valuing sustainability and rationalizes I higher multiple accordingly.  After all a company worth should be based on the long term rate of return.  Rather than the growth rate until the next blow up.  The market is resilent and the guys on wallstreet are the brightest.  I’m staying with the down trend and QQQQ is a pretty safe way to do that.   QID is a leveraged index to play stocks short for those with no other options to get short stocks.   I hope to post a few more leveraged funds for those that want to be a touch aggressive.
     Bill Seidman the man who fixed the savings and loan crisis in the 1980’s was just on CNBC saying the current situation has similarities to that of the 1980’s.  That should surely fuel the fire as more investors wake up to reality of a full blown recession.  Defaults  should keep rising, credit tightening, and the stock market being a forward looking indicator heading lower.  I will continue to go in and out the market shorting the market.    Steve Leisman pointed out today that software stocks are vulnerable in 2008 with 30% of Ceo’s saying they would cut back on CRM software if they needed to cut back on spending due to weakness in the economy.This article is for entertainment purposes only, not investment advice.  Do your own research and only make educated decisions when trading

Now you add in my brother in law works in the sector, and he said he was expecting a flat year for the sector.  Hardly a situation that a hi growth company can be overly successful in.

CRM could go up on the other hand because it has recently sold off, and is obviously the stock is over priced because investors pay for growth, and buyers/sellers set the current price.   Kramer did say the risks were 10 points up and 30 points down. That means it could go up 10 from here.   Always remember to look at the other side of the trade, and only take the best opportunities.  Rember this site is so you can learn from my mistakes as well as succeses. Good luck

January 11, 2008 - Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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